Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 302227

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 PM EDT Sat May 30 2020

A strong late spring cold front will cross the area this
evening along with a few showers. Behind this front much cooler
and mainly drier weather returns for Sunday into early next
week. A warm front will usher in moderating temperatures from
Tuesday onward. Scattered shower activity will be possible along
this feature during the mid-week time frame.


As of 623 PM EDT Saturday...Main change with this update was to
increase PoPs through about midnight. Showers are developing
over/moving into the region this evening ahead of a cold front
pushing east through Ontario/NY/PA. Upstream radars indicate
scattered to somewhat widespread activity with this front, and
the latest CAM runs show this holding together as it crosses the
North Country, particularly over the higher terrain. PoPs have
been raised to likley in these areas. Did keep a slight chance
of thunder across the St Lawrence Valley as SPC mesoanalysis
shows a bit of lingering instability there. Otherwise, the
forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed.

Previous discussion...Partly sunny and much cooler conditions
continue today under weak high pressure as last night`s cold
front pulls well east and offshore. A secondary and stronger
front remains poised to cross through the area later this
evening along with scattered shower activity. Latest guidance
supports continuity with our prior forecasts showing highest
probabilities of showers will occur across central/northern
counties this evening along enhanced PVA and low level
convergence ahead of the front. A brief heavy downpour will be
possible late this afternoon/early evening, mainly across
northern NY where some marginal instability will exist. Can`t
rule out an isolated storm in the SLV either, though chances are
generally below 20%. By later tonight the front clears east
under broken to overcast lower cloud cover and modest
northwesterly winds. Low temperatures to range through the 40s
with some mid/upper 30s possible in the Dacks.

Variable morning clouds then give way to mainly partly sunny
skies by Sunday afternoon in cool post-frontal northwesterly
flow. Winds to occasionally gust into the 15 to 25 mph range by
afternoon putting a bit of a chill in the air for the last day
of May. Temperatures to run some 8 to 12 degrees below seasonal
norms, topping out only in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Then partly to variably cloudy Sunday night under a light wind
regime. Another, albeit rather weak upper shortwave will swing
through the region during the evening/early overnight period
with perhaps a few/scattered showers across northern counties.
This system is fairly moisture-starved so precipitation amounts
will be light and scattered at best. Low temperatures a bit
tricky given higher cloud probabilities, though will advertise
readings bottoming out from the mid 30s to lower 40s with a few
lower 30s possible in favored Dack/NE VT hollows.


As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...A slight chance for showers on
Monday, especially earlier in the day with shortwave energy
passing overhead. Any precipitation will be very light. Highs on
Monday will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, a good ten
degrees below seasonal normals for the start of June in the
north country. Winds will be northwesterly around 10-15 mph
during the day Monday following trough passage. Weather will
remain quiet Monday night as surface and upper level ridges
nudge into our region, temperatures remain below seasonal
normals with lows ranging from the mid 30s in the Northeast
Kingdom to mid 40s in the Champlain and St Lawrence valleys.


As of 345 PM EDT Saturday... Still no significant precipitation
systems are expected during the long-term forecast period.
Agree with previous forecasters thinking that best chance for
showers will be with NW-SE oriented warm front Tue night into
Wed. At this time, QPF continues to look light with this
feature. May still see some more showers through the week with
embedded shortwave energy in northwesterly mid level flow
bringing isolated or scattered showers on Wed and Thu, but
timing still very uncertain with these smaller scale features.
Temperatures will start out the period below seasonal normals,
but then moderate closer to normal towards the end of the week.


Through 18Z Sunday...A mix of VFR/MVFR expected through the
forecast period. Secondary cold front to push through the area
in the evening/overnight hours. Scattered showers possible along
this feature in the 21-04Z time frame from west to east. An
isolated storm possible at KMSS. Highest confidence of MVFR at
KMSS, KSLK and KMPV, mainly in the 00-12Z time frame. Other
sites such at KBTV, KPBG and KRUT should remain largely VFR
overnight. After 12Z Sunday conditions trend VFR at all
terminals. Winds variable at 5 to 10 knots ahead of the frontal
boundary through 00Z, depending on terminal, then trending
bodily northwest 7 to 14 kts behind the front in the 03-07Z time
frame onward. Flow to trend gusty into the 15 to 25 kt range
after 14Z Sunday.


Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.




NEAR TERM...Hastings/JMG
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.