Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 141539
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
939 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.UPDATE...
Clear skies across the region with a bit of breezy northwest winds
in southeast Montana today. Quiet forecast for the next 36 hours
as high pressure builds over the region. No updates. borsum

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday Night...

Combination of a strong trough moving through E MT on water vapor
imagery and a coupled jet, produced bowing segments of
thunderstorms across northern areas overnight. Precipitable waters
were around 1 inch over SE MT and strong shear was over the
entire area. Received a report of 1/2 in. hail earlier in the
evening near Forsyth and a gust to 55 mph near KBHK around 11 pm
MDT. Areas from Big Horn County E were strongly capped,
prohibiting the formation of convection. Axis of the trough was
progged to be right along the MT/Dakotas border at 12Z and jet
divergence will be in the Dakotas. Models showed some lingering
precip. in the far E, so will keep low PoPs there through 15Z.
Good mixing will result in breezy conditions this afternoon. Temps
will be below normal behind the system, with RH`s in the teens to
20s. Saturday will be a little warmer under a continued flat NW
flow. RH`s will be in the teens with afternoon mixing creating
diurnal gusts which will not be overly strong. Will headline RH`s
and breeziness in the FWF. Arthur

Sunday through Friday...

Looking for mostly above normal temperatures, and RH`s in the
teens to 20s during the extended period. Expect some breezy
conditions each afternoon due to mixing. A combination of Pacific
and monsoonal moisture will rotate around a strong upper ridge to
bring a low chance of thunderstorms to areas over and near the
terrain each afternoon and evening, beginning on Monday. The
thunderstorms will be a mix of wet and dry with PWAT`s in the
0.75-1.00 in range. Did not see much CAPE during the period which
will limit severe potential. No particular day stood out as a
significant fire weather day. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR through the forecast period. borsum

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 054/088 056/092 061/096 065/094 063/095 063/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/U    21/U
LVM 083 046/090 050/094 054/096 058/094 056/094 054/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    21/U
HDN 082 051/088 054/093 058/096 062/095 061/095 061/091
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/U    11/U
MLS 081 053/087 057/090 061/095 064/094 062/094 063/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 081 053/088 056/090 060/095 063/094 062/093 062/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 080 051/086 053/087 056/091 058/093 059/092 058/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 082 051/089 053/092 056/096 060/093 058/093 058/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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