Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 151538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
938 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019


No major changes made to the forecast. Vertz


.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Wed...

Generally light winds prevail across the region this morning, with
some more persistent breezy conditions in the extreme eastern
zones, with gusts 30mph still being reported at Baker.

Upper level shortwave ridging will be in control over the region,
bringing dry conditions, but do not expect much help to raise
temps behind the cold front. Ridging flattens by Tuesday evening,
curtailing any warmup. Temps are only expected to be in low 50s
at best.

Flattened ridge opens the door for some downslop flow and lee
trof development overnight. Sfc pressure gradient tightening over
paradise valley points toward some potential for increased wind
conditions. Lag guidance also supports reasonable chance for sub
advisory type winds for the Livingston area from about 03 - 09z
tonight. Winds will remain breezy through the day, but orientation
of gradient does not look as good to support the stronger winds
through the day Wednesday.

Shallow ridging redevelops by Wednesday morning, bringing
much warmer temps to the area, with highs climbing to around 70
degrees in most locations.


.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Dry conditions continue to start the day Thursday, but gives way
to unsettled weather as ridging shifts eastward, and
southwesterly flow aloft returns to the region. An unsettled
weather pattern will return for the remainder of the forecast
period, as a series of shortwaves radiate through the region,
with reinforcing shots of cool air, and periods of precip
through the weekend. Temperatures will slowly cool off through
the period, falling from near 70 degrees on Thursday to 40s on
Sunday. Light showers will overspread the region, with precip
slowly transitioning to mountain snow over the weekend, as
temperatures cool off through the weekend. A deeper shortwave
is progged through the area on Sunday, bringing more significant
precip to the lower elevations... starting off as snow Sunday
morning and transitioning to rain by the afternoon.

Upper ridging previously indicated for early next looks to be a
bit later, with only possibility of shortwave ridging embedded
within persistent unsettled northwesterly flow. This would allow
for a break in precip, but timing of ridging across the region is
inconsistent, so broadbrushed type pops cover the the latter
portions of the extended period. Temps are progged to be a bit
warmer to start next week, than those seen over the weekend, but
only by a few degrees at this time. Gilstad



High pressure will have an increasing influence on the regions
weather today. Areas of MVFR ceilings will impact Miles City to
Broadus and eastward until 18z. Otherwise, VFR will prevail
across the region. Winds will be light. borsum/chambers



    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
BIL 054 040/072 045/069 040/059 037/055 035/049 032/052
    0/U 00/B    01/E    42/R    33/R    64/O    43/O
LVM 059 040/070 043/066 037/052 034/049 032/044 029/047
    0/B 00/N    04/R    54/R    36/O    76/O    44/O
HDN 053 036/072 041/071 039/060 034/056 034/049 030/051
    0/U 00/B    00/B    32/R    33/R    55/R    43/O
MLS 047 034/070 040/068 041/060 036/056 035/049 032/049
    0/B 00/B    00/B    11/B    12/R    34/R    32/O
4BQ 048 033/070 040/072 038/057 033/055 033/048 029/048
    0/U 00/B    00/B    21/B    21/B    45/R    42/O
BHK 044 029/067 038/069 039/056 034/054 033/048 029/047
    0/B 00/B    00/B    11/U    11/B    34/R    32/O
SHR 053 034/072 040/073 036/058 032/055 031/046 027/049
    0/U 00/B    00/B    32/R    22/R    45/O    42/O




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