Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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544
FXUS61 KCAR 190425
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1225 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region Saturday into
Monday. Low pressure will cross the region later Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12:25 AM Update: Partly to mostly cloudy the remainder of the
night across northern and western sections of the FA with a
clear to partly cloudy sky Down East. A very isolated shower is
possible, mainly across eastern Aroostook County during the
next couple of hours, but for the most part the showers have
dissipated. There remains a decent gradient between departing
low pressure and high pressure in the eastern Great Lakes and
Ohio that will keep the low levels well mixed with low
temperatures remaining above average for mid october. Only minor
tweaks to the overnight based on the latest observations,
satellite pictures, and radar.

Prev Disc: In a northwesterly flow on the east side of surface
high pressure, 850-925mb moisture will remain prevalent through
most of Saturday. The resultant cloud cover and the winds will
keep tonight`s lows from falling below the upper 30s to lower
40s. There will be some downsloping erosion of the cloud cover
tonight into Saturday for southern Piscataquis/Penobscot
counties as well as Hancock County. A weak shortwave propagating
southward in the northwesterly upper level flow could squeeze
out isolated showers in northern zones tonight, but the main
effect will be the introduction of cooler 850mb temps, dropping
towards -5C in Aroostook County by Saturday morning. This colder
air aloft, and cloud cover under a strengthening subsidence
inversion, will ensure Saturday`s highs are no higher than
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region Saturday night into
Monday. Expect partly cloudy skies north early Saturday night
then decreasing overnight, with mostly clear skies Downeast.
Expect mostly sunny skies across the region Sunday, then partly
cloudy/mostly clear skies Sunday night through Monday. Near
normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are
expected Sunday/Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure begins to exit east across the Maritimes Monday
night with mostly clear skies. A cold/occluded front will
approach from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. A coastal low is
expected to develop along the front and lift north across the
region with rain and gusty winds. However, timing differences
still exist regarding whether the major impacts with the system
occur Tuesday into Wednesday or Wednesday into Thursday. High
pressure should build across the region in the wake of the
system later Thursday into Friday. An approaching frontal
boundary could bring a chance of showers later Friday. Near
normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are
expected Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs will be persistent north of a GNR to HUL
line through late Saturday. South of that line, conditions will
be predominantly VFR. Gusty northwest winds will continue
through the period.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night through Monday night...VFR.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Conditions dependent on the
eventual timing of a coastal low, which remains uncertain
at this time. Rain and gusty winds should accompany the low.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect into
Saturday morning as advertised. It`s possible that it will need
to be extended a couple of hours, but will not make that change
at this point. Northwest winds gusting to 25 to 30 kt will
continue through the period. In terms of seas, the long period
south swell will continue to diminish late this afternoon into
the evening and the primary wave group will transition to a
lower, shorter period wind-driven variety.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/VJN
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...CB/VJN/Norcross
Marine...CB/VJN/Norcross



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