


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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354 FXUS65 KCYS 142339 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 539 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper level trough brings a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through this evening. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. - A cold front will bring thunderstorms on Tuesday/Wednesday alongside cooler temperatures on Wednesday, but a gradual warming trend will occur thereafter alongside daily shower and thunderstorm chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 148 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across the region this afternoon in an environment conducive of marginally strong to severe thunderstorms. Current mesoanalysis indicates areas of mostly favorable instability, MUCAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg, with bulk shear primarily relegated to our northern zones. Its in these locations that the strongest storms are currently ongoing, but have remained sub-severe. High resolution guidances expects this to continue through this evening and with the trough moving eastwards into the NE Panhandle alongside a brief increase in wind shear, guidance is honing in on at least one storm taking advantage of this environment in the northern Panhandle and producing stronger winds and perhaps some hail. Activity is then expected to wane through the late evening and early nighttime hours. On Tuesday we continue with more thunderstorm activity as a cold front begins to approach and move into the CWA, but this feature is expected to stall out as it reaches the I-80 corridor. Along this boundary we can once again expect stronger to severe thunderstorms, with the best risk for severe activity currently lying just east into Central Nebraska. CAMs are showing two rounds of activity with this system - one round during the afternoon hours, and another round during the late afternoon/evening timeframe. It`s this second round that is showing signs of becoming linear and passing across northern and central Wyoming and then the northern Nebraska Panhandle through around midnight, bringing a higher risk of stronger winds with it. Not all of the high res guidance is in agreement however, with some showing a more clustered style grouping of thunderstorms, but nonetheless it appears tomorrows activity may last a bit longer compared to today, and all storms will have a risk of hail and strong winds. The aforementioned front and cloud cover should assist in cooling highs for at least our northern zones, but expect locations along the I-80 corridor to see similar highs as today. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 148 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Wednesday will be a cooler, cloudy and relatively wet day in the wake of a cold front. Warmer temperatures and scattered late day showers and thunderstorms will occur for Thursday through Monday. Wednesday...Looks like a cloudy and cooler day in the wake of the passing cold front. With copious amounts of moisture, deep moist upslope and a passing shortwave trough aloft, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Thursday...With temperatures warming aloft and a decrease in available moisture, we expect only isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms near the Colorado state line from Laramie to Kimball. Will see a warming trend. Friday...The warming trend continues under zonal flow aloft. 700 mb temperatures near 17 Celsius will yield high temperatures from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Expect isolated to widely scattered late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly from I-25 eastward. Saturday...With an increase in low and mid level moisture, and a passing shortwave trough aloft, we should see an attendant increase in afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm coverage. Slightly cooler with additional cloud cover and more precipitation coverage. Sunday...A low amplitude shortwave ridge aloft will move overhead, and with warmer temperatures aloft and drier air aloft, expect less coverage of late day showers and thunderstorms. 700 mb temperatures near 18 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Monday...Hot temperatures continue with 700 mb temperatures near 19 Celsius, yielding highs in the mid 80s to upper 90s. Perhaps enough moisture for isolated late day showers and thunderstorms near the southern Laramie Range, though warm temperatures aloft may produce enough convective inhibition to limit thunderstorms and keep it dry. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 521 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 West flow aloft and a few weather disturbances will produce a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. Wyoming TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 5000 to 12000 feet will prevail. Occasional thunderstorms will affect Cheyenne until 02Z, producing wind gusts to 35 knots, with thunderstorms in the vicinity of Laramie until 02Z. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will gust to 38 knots at all the terminals until 03Z, and to 25 knots after 15Z Tuesday. Nebraska TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 5000 to 10000 feet will prevail. Occasional thunderstorms will occur until 02Z, producing wind gusts to 45 knots, and visibilities to 3 miles. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will gust to 38 knots until 02Z. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN