Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 111934
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
234 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 233 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2021

Key Messages...

1. Cooler temperatures will prevail through the end of the week,
with highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s.

2. Rainfall chances increase Friday and persist well through the
weekend. Between Friday and early next week, the region could see
between 2 to 2.50 inches of widespread rainfall.

Detailed Discussion...

Broad surface ridging will spread across the upper Midwest and
southeast across the lower Missouri River Valley. This will promote
below average temperatures through Friday, with highs in the 60s
across the region. Aloft, a shallow 500mb trough will slowly
traverse east-southeast through Thursday. With a gradual pivot back
to southerly return flow across the Plains into Friday, modest
convergence through the low levels will support a swath of isentropic
ascent just ahead of a short wave trough dipping southeast across
the Dakotas into Friday. Ample moisture for showers and some
isolated thunder will exist through sunrise, with precipitation
moving into the region through the day from the northwest.

Into Saturday, expect a surface front to set up east-west across
Kansas, stretching into western Missouri through daybreak. This will
become the focus for continual precipitation chances through the
weekend, especially as a surface trough begins to move east off the
western high plains Saturday night. With broadscale forcing for
ascent across the region, and a sizable warm sector, modest
instability is forecast. With 500 to 1000 J/Kg of CAPE residing
across the area, rumbles of thunder are likely, with the best
opportunity Sunday afternoon as the influence from the upper
shortwave makes its arrival. Overall, at present, not anticipating
much if any severe activity over the weekend. Weak midlevels and
even a lack of good low level jet support, lean more toward this
being a wet and dreary weekend. Although there remains some sizable
spread in guidance on amounts, it`s fairly safe to say that over the
weekend, Friday through Monday, we could see widespread amounts
exceeding upwards of 2.00 inches across the region, with some places
nearing 3.00 inches by the time this system exits Monday evening.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2021

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. East
winds will shift more northeast overnight. Broken skies are
expected to persist through the period. Cannot rule out a few
scattered showers through the afternoon, but not enough for a
mention in the TAFs at this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Kurtz


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