Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 191656
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1156 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

A few light rain showers will continue to move through northwest
Iowa this morning, but are expected to clear the forecast area by
daybreak. Generally a very nice Fall day is expected as we`ll see
plenty of sun, light westerly winds, and highs in the 60s.  Have
bumped up winds and temperatures slightly from the previous forecast.

Tonight: Winds will turn more to the southeast in response to lee-
side trough development. Mid-level clouds increase through the
night, with low temperatures in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Sunday: Models showing better consistency tonight regarding
deepening and track of upper trough moving through the Plains, so
minimal forecast changes were needed. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to develop by mid-day Sunday as low level
convergence, and upper level diffluence develops in the region. This
axis of rainfall will move northeast in the afternoon and evening
hours.

Sunday Night:  Upper low and surface low track northeast across the
CWA through the night, which may induce a period of dry conditions
into the early morning hours of Monday. Temperatures fall into the
lower 40s in most locations.

Monday: Once the upper low pivots east of the area early Monday
morning, precipitation will pivot back into the area from the west
through the morning. Temperatures again appear too warm for any
wintry mix, even in higher terrain areas.  Winds will quickly
increase after daybreak, with signals continuing to point to the
potential for advisory level winds during the day and evening hours.

Monday Night:  GFS continues to be slightly faster on the eastward
progression of the upper low.  Favor the slower ECMWF/NAM which
lingers precipitation through the night, especially east of I-29.
There could be some potential of a wintry mix forming in the
higher terrain areas of the Buffalo Ridge into Tuesday morning.
Strong winds persist overnight, but may remain below advisory
levels.

Tuesday-Tuesday Night: We may finally see the sun return by Tuesday
as this system slides eastward.  We`ll continue to see breezy
conditions, and temperatures remain below normal. There is no
extreme push of cold air behind this system, so extreme cold is not
anticipated Tuesday night as skies clear.

Wednesday-Friday: As expected, still a fair amount of uncertainty in
the mid-late week forecast as upper troughing deepening over the
CONUS.  A shortwave is expected to move through the broad trough
Wednesday/Thursday, however models are all over place on the track
and development of this wave.  Of higher confidence will be the
expectations of cooler than normal temperatures through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds aloft will
increase later tonight, resulting in a period of low level wind
shear at KSUX on Sunday morning. Also, showers will develop over
central SD tonight, possibly affecting KHON by the morning hours
of Sunday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...JM


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