Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 090842
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
342 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Late evening convection which developed across western Neb skirted
along the northwest periphery of our cwa and while we missed the
western convection, a few storms have developed along and north
of an outflow boundary and on the nose of the low level jet.

Early this morning...our current forecast has some fog in the
forecast around daybreak generally for locations generally along
and north of Interstate 80 which is supported by the SREF which
did better with the fog Saturday morning and will continue to
monitor trends of this.

For today, it`ll be another hot one to round out the weekend with
high temps in the 90s to around 100F. The combination of the hot
temperatures and dewpoints in the 65-75F range will result in
afternoon and early evening heat indices of 100-105F, which will
average below heat advisory criteria so no heat headline attm.
Most areas will see fairly light southerly winds today, but they
will be on the increase in the aftn, especially in our southern
zones as mixing deepens with gusts at above 20 mph.

Tonight, an upper trough crossing thru Canada and the northern
plains states will send a cold front south across much of Neb and
western KS. The front is expected to orient across the sandhills
by evening and focus a few showers and storms, with additional
development in possible in northwest KS and southwest Neb in the
vicinity of a surface low. High resolution models suggest some of
this convection may reach portions of south central Neb/north
central KS this evening but overall coverage should mainly be
isolated to scattered this far east, hence the 20-30 pops in the
forecast. A few storms could be strong to severe, bringing a
primary damaging wind/large hail threat and our western and
northern zones are outlooked in the SPC day 1 marginal severe
risk.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Small chances for precip carry into Monday...but again these
chances are small...as the cold front is more progressive than
models indicated 24 hours ago...and moves south of our KS counties
by midday. Overnight convection from tonight is expected to
depart Monday morning, then some hit or miss convection is
possible into the day in presence of mid level frontogenesis and
forcing with upper wave crossing thru the Dakotas/northern Neb.
Then storms Monday night will focus along the baroclinic zone
which should be south of our area...or our southern zones may be
on the northern edge of this.

The start of the workweek will be noticeably cooler and less humid
behind the cold front, with highs in the 70s and 80s and
dewpoints in the 50s/60s. Then looking ahead through the middle
of the week we`ll see temps return to fairly seasonal readings
with west/southwest flow aloft as upper ridging orients over the
desert southwest and main energy remains across Canada and the
northern tier states. Intermittent chances for precip exist but
details will be refined as things get closer. By the end of the
week upper ridging expands onto the plains ahead of a trough
moving inland from the Pacific NW, then the ridge breaks
down/retrogrades over the weekend with pattern becoming more
amplified across the CONUS with a western ridge and eastern
trough. This will lead to a continuation of fairly typical summer
type weather with seasonally warm temps and more dry vs wet days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

An outflow boundary associated with convection north of the
terminals was working southeast early tonight and brought a 43 mph
wind gust to KODX and a 24 mph wind gust to KLXN...and have
included the potential for a wind shift/wind gust briefly at the
terminals but storms/precip are expected to remain to the north.
Cannot completely rule out the potential for some fog development
toward daybreak Sunday, similar to the last couple of mornings and
will monitor trends. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast thru
the daytime hours Sunday with southerly winds increasing in the
aftn. An approaching cold front Sunday evening/night could
initiate convection and have a VCTS attm towards the 03Z-04Z time
frame.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Fay



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