Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 140830
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
230 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Another nice day in store though an approaching trough will mix
things up a bit, literally. The atmosphere remains very dry at low
levels so the trough, while providing some ascent, will not
produce any precipitation whatsoever. We will see some high clouds
over the area and that will be about it. The trough will allow
some deeper mixing, however, which will cause some gusty winds
this afternoon...mainly north of the I-70 corridor. The only way
to really tell that the trough has passed will be a switch to more
northwesterly winds which won`t actually happen until much later
tonight. High temperatures will be at or just above what we saw
yesterday.

Another day, another ridge of high pressure builds in for Tuesday.
An odd high cloud is possible while dry conditions remain in
place.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Blended models remain in good agreement with regards to the long
term period. Dry weather remains the norm through Friday as a
large ridge of high pressure remains in control. High temperatures
will remain about 3 to 5 degrees above normal while overnight lows
should fall a bit below normal due to radiational cooling.

A deep low with plenty of moisture is still progged to come ashore
over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday evening and force the ridge
of high pressure eastward. As this occurs, pieces of energy will
ride through the meanflow and one of these pieces will carve out a
somewhat meager trough, if you can even call it that, as it
approaches the central Rockies. This weak wiggle, and favorable
orographics, may bring some rain and snow to the mountains along
the Continental Divide during the day Friday. A bigger impulse is
expected to drop down Sunday and bring much more widespread
precipitation to the region. Accumulating snow is looking more
likely and as each model run remains fairly consistent, confidence
also continues to increase. Looks to be an interesting end to the
week. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 214 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Plenty of sunny skies today with VFR conditions in place. Expect
some gusty winds up to 25kts at KHDN, KCAG, and KEEO this
afternoon. KGJT, KRIL, KEGE, and KASE may also see some gusty
winds from about 19Z onwards.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

A dry trough will move through the region later today and while
no precipitation is expected with this passage, gusty winds will
develop this afternoon. Fuels remain critical and with dry
conditions in place, critical fire weather conditions will exist
across portions of northwest Colorado. Red Flag Warnings remain in
effect for Colorado Fire zones 200 and 202 and also Colorado Fire
Zone 201 below 8500 feet.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
     COZ200>202.

UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT


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