Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 262026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
226 PM MDT Tue May 26 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue May 26 2020

Overview: A broad upper level low presently situated over the
Southern Plains will shift slowly east toward the Lower MS River
Valley -- as an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/
Southern Pacific Coast amplifies and extends northward into the
Intermountain West/Rockies.

Through Tonight: Scattered showers may develop along the NW
periphery of the broad upper low over the Southern Plains late
tonight -- though such activity should be confined to locations
E-SE of the Tri-State area (i.e. central and south-central KS).
Expect dry conditions and near-average lows for this time of year.

Wed-Wed night: Scattered shower activity in central/south-central
KS (if any) will shift eastward in concert with the broad upper
low as it progresses slowly east toward the Lower MS River Valley.
Guidance continues to suggest that small amplitude shortwave
energy will move ashore the PAC NW (WA/OR) this evening,
progressing ESE through Idaho into the Central/Northern Rockies
Wed eve/night -- along the NNE-NE periphery of the amplifying
upper ridge over the Desert Southwest/Southern Pacific Coast. If
this is the case, diurnal convection over the Rockies and adjacent
Foothills may propagate eastward into portions of Eastern
Colorado Wed eve/night, though -- with poor diurnal timing and an
underwhelming (relatively stable) airmass -- confidence is low
that said activity would survive east of Limon-Akron.

Thu-Thu night: Northerly flow aloft will strengthen over the
region in this period -- on the eastern periphery of the
amplifying upper level ridge over the Intermountain West/Rockies.
Convection cannot be entirely ruled out in eastern Colorado late
Thu aft/eve, though any chance thereof will be tied to the
presence of upstream convection (in southeast WY and/or north-
central CO), which, in turn -- will be heavily dependent upon
well-timed DPVA (e.g. small amplitude waves progressing SSE-SE
along the northeast periphery of the ridge) during the late
aft/eve hours. At this time, expect dry conditions to prevail.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue May 26 2020

For the extended an upper-level ridge will build and move over
the High Plains and produce mostly dry conditions and above normal
temperatures for the period. However, the models are showing the
possibility of isolated precipitation on Saturday afternoon/
evening due to a lee side trough along the Front Range. Afternoon
highs will reach into the middle 90s by next Monday and Tuesday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Sunday through
Tuesday. Relative humidity values look to be in the upper teens to
lower 20s range with southerly winds gusting up to 25 mph.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Tue May 26 2020

...Excellent Aviation Conditions...

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Aside from
transient cirrus, clear skies are anticipated to prevail. NNW
winds at 8-13 knots may occasionally gust up to 20 knots this
afternoon, decreasing to light/variable AOA sunset. Light/variable
winds will persist overnight into Wed morning, becoming NNE at
10-15 knots near the end of the TAF period (~18Z Wed).


Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue May 26 2020

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible in eastern Colorado
late this weekend and early next week.




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