Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 210145
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
745 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire on time. Have
cancelled the Red Flag Warning an hour early as conditions no
longer support critical fire weather conditions being met.

Threat for blowing dust has ended but not before moving through
the northwest half or so of the forecast area from northeast
Colorado. Visibilities generally ranged from 3 to 6 miles as the
dust moved through behind a cold front and surge of northwest
winds.

For this evening will have to watch wind gusts carefully. 0.5-1km
winds in the 45 to 55kt range are advertised to slowly move east
across much of the area behind an intensifying upper level low
pressure center currently over Nebraska. Have increased the winds
as a result with generally gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range before
decreasing a bit into the 20 to 30 mph range after midnight.

Northwest winds increase on Monday with gusts in the 45 to maybe
55 mph range from roughly Trenton to Hill City and points east.
Its possible for some patchy blowing dust to develop late in the
afternoon in this area.

UPDATE Issued at 400 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Did a quick update for the next several hours.

Northwest winds gusting over 50 mph just entering Yuma county with
some blowing dust being reported. Latest guidance has the track of
the low pressure system a little farther south compared to 24
hours ago. Wraparound winds in excess of 45kts in the 0.5-1km
layer reach into much of far eastern Colorado by 00z then as far
south as Oakley by 03z then slowly moving east into the central
and eastern CWA by midnight. Question becomes how much of that
wind will reach the surface this evening. LAMP guidance has been
showing the strongest winds early this evening and I`ve updated
the forecast as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Looking aloft, a strong cyclone located over the Nebraska
panhandle will continue to move east towards South Dakota. Our
area is currently set in the dry slot of this system, so we are
not expecting any precipitation, but rather, strong NW flow.

For the rest of today, continued the High Wind Warning through 7
PM MDT / 8 PM CDT tonight, but there is still some uncertainty as
to how low the winds will mix to the surface, in addition to,
cloud cover. However, we will see a lull in the winds at sunset
with another stronger round of winds 15-25 mph gusting up to 50
mph through 6Z, and then another brief lull in the early morning
hours, back up to around 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph lasting
through Monday evening. It won`t be until Monday night where we
will see winds come down to the NW around 10 mph.

We will see a very slight increase in humidity values over the
Tri-State area tomorrow. RH minimum values are forecast to be in
the upper teens to mid 20s. We will be close to critical fire
weather conditions, especially with tomorrow`s winds, but felt, at
this time, the need for an additional highlight was unnecessary.

Not much in the way of temperatures. Highs today and tomorrow will
be in the mid to upper 50s. With overnight lows tonight and
tomorrow night in the lower 30s.

Lastly, blowing dust is highly possible, and if seen, please
report it to your local NWS.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

A ridge moves across the region Tuesday before a trough extends from
a low over the Hudson Bay and begins to move across the central
Plains Wednesday. Another ridge moves into the area by Friday and
moves across the central U.S. Saturday as a trough develops over the
Pacific Northwest. The trough continues to extend to the California
coast through Sunday causing southwest flow over the central Plains.

A strong surface midlatitude cyclone sits over Lake Superior as
another low pressure system develops over western Canada Tuesday.
The system over western Canada migrates south along the lee of the
Rockies into eastern Colorado by Wednesday. A cold front
accompanying the surface low moves across the Tri-State area
Wednesday. Rain and snow will accompany the frontal passage and
continue through Thursday.

Leeside troughing develops by Saturday morning bringing another cold
front to the area Saturday night. Rain and some transition to snow
are expected Saturday night through Sunday. Little to no snow
accumulation is expected with either frontal passage.

Expect highs in the mid-40s to lower 70s and lows in the upper teens
to mid-40s through the extended forecast period. Skies will be clear
to mostly clear during periods of time when precip is not
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected after about 01z or 02z.
Until that time strong northwest winds with blowing dust will be
possible. Visibilities locally down to 3sm with mvfr cigs. Strong
west to northwest winds are expected through the overnight
hours and into much of the day Monday before decreasing around
23z. Wind gusts of 35 to 40kts are expected, maybe higher at times
this evening. Both terminals could see some light rain showers on
the backside of the storm system this evening. Confidence isnt
high enough to include in the forecast and no impacts from the
showers are expected.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...99


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