Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 170008
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
808 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

-Winds and waves gradually subsiding tonight

-Cloudy, cool and breezy through Thursday with lingering showers
 at the lakeshore

-Frost possible Thursday night

-Milder with highs 60-65 Saturday through Monday

-Another strong fall storm brings more rain and wind early next
 week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

We transitioned the Gale warning to a Small Craft Advisory. Most
sites were under Gale criteria. Guidance shows a fairly rapid
decrease of the winds through the evening. It will take time for
the waves to subside...likely through Thursday for many areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

997 mb sfc low now over Georgian Bay deepens further while moving
east and merging with another east coast sfc low, bombing out
around 975 mb over New England on Thursday. While winds and waves
will gradually subside as the low pulls away tonight, the
lingering cyclonic flow on the back side of the system should keep
a good deal of clouds around through Thursday along with a
continuation of cool/breezy conditions.

Nice dominant NNW flow lake effect rain band along the lakeshore
curving in toward AZO currently should weaken tonight as an
inversion aloft around 6k ft becomes better established.
Currently the convective depth is 10-15K feet which is fairly
impressive for lake effect. There`s probably been some heavier
rain occurring in this band as radar has been showing 35 DbZ
echoes for several hours.

A widespread frost threat develops on Thursday night as a brief
period of surface ridging comes through, clearing the skies and
calming the winds. Warm advection pattern develops on Friday and
Saturday, with breezy southerly flow sending temps back into the
60s over the weekend. A few showers can`t be ruled out late
Sat/Sat night as a weak front floats through. Less wind and more
sunshine expected on Sunday with a sfc ridge, so this currently
looks like the best day of the weekend.

Here we go again early next week with another deepening sfc
low/fall storm. Model consensus is for a track west of Michigan,
so we could see some stronger storms and a heavy rain risk develop
Monday and Monday night. This would be followed by another
potential wind event on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 804 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Mostly VFR weather is expected through Thursday. There will be
patchy MVFR conditions though along with some rain showers. The
rain showers will be primarily this evening. The wind will
steadily decrease through the night. Some increase in the wind
will occur on Thursday...but it will be much weaker than it was on
Wednesday.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...Lakeshore hazards gradually subsiding tonight and Thursday...

Gusts around 50 mph and waves around 12 ft have been recorded at
the lakeshore today. Web cams and social media have revealed some
impressive beach erosion and flooding of parking lots/roads
adjacent to channels, as well as severe swamping of piers. We are
at the height of this event currently and winds/waves should be
trending down after 5 pm. That said, it takes until after daybreak
Thursday until wave heights fall below 6 feet. The gale warning
will need to replaced with a small craft advisory that runs
through much of Thursday. The lake settles down for Thursday
night/early friday before increasing southerly flow brings back
3-6 footers north of Holland friday night into Saturday.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...Meade
DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...Meade


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