Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 210309
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1109 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front crosses the area this evening. High pressure will
build in for Monday and Monday night. Low pressure will move
across the region Tue night and Wednesday, and bring rain. High
pressure will move for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1105 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Rain
showers have pretty much dried up. Added a little more fog to
the forecast, especially where it did rain a little. Otherwise,
no changes.

910 PM Update...Band of light showers continues to move eastward
and at the same time constricting as it runs into drier air over
Maine. Have expanded chance PoPs a little farther east for the
next hour or two before the band is expected to dry up. Other
than that, just a few minor adjustments to temperatures.

610 PM Update...Have increased PoPs some across central and
southern NH for the next few hours as stations in the CT River
Valley beginning to measure a little bit. The air mass is still
quite dry as evidenced by the single digit dewpoint temperatures
on MWN. Therefore nothing heavy is expected...just a couple of
hundredths at best. Otherwise, no changes to the forecast,
cloudy skies are expected to continue in Maine with a couple of
sprinkles possible by 00z.

Previously...


Weak radar echoes brushing the wrn zones attm, but no signs of
rain reaching the ground anywhere east of the Hudson valley, and
precip falls from ~10K feet thru fairly dry air mass. The best
forcing and rain production is expected a few hours either side
of 00Z, so if any SHRA do make it to the ground they will
lkly occur in this time window, and will be limited to the
southern half of NH. Otherwise, whatever sun is out there now
will fade behind clouds before sunset.

Once the weak wave aloft moves through this evening, it will
remain dry thru the overnight. Given the weak low level flow,
clouds could linger thru daybreak Monday over the coastal plain,
but some clearing expected in the CT vly and the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high
builds in with temps warming aloft Monday should see mainly
sunny skies and highs in the upper 50 in the mtns and along the
coast to the low to mid 60s in many inland areas.

Monday will see increasing clouds with increasing SW flow as the
high exits to the east. this will allow for mins in the upper
30s N to the mid 40s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in decent
agreement on the long wave pattern through the start of the upcoming
weekend. We begin the period with a ridge quickly retreating into
the Maritimes on Tuesday and a deep upper trough approaching
from the central CONUS. An impulse pivoting around the base of
the trough goes negative tilt as it crosses the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday. At the surface...a ridge retreats well
offshore Tuesday with low pressure over the Great Lakes. A
trailing frontal system through the lower lakes and Appalachians
will arrive with clouds and rain by Tuesday evening. A
secondary low will develop along the front vicinity of the
DELMARVA as the upper reflection goes negative tilt. We`ll see
rain become heavy-at-times Tuesday night as the secondary low
rides northeast along the coast with precipitation tapering
during the day as the low exits into the maritimes. High
pressure then builds by to our south Wednesday night and
Thursday. A northern stream impulse will drive a cold front
across the area Friday into early Saturday with high pressure to
follow for the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR thru Mon night, except for some
possible vly fog again at KHIE/KLEB, and maybe another brief
period at KCON.


Long Term...

Tue Night - Wed...IFR in RA and fog. Sfc winds gusting up to 25 kt
nr the coast.

Fri...Sct MVFR psb in mtn -SHRA/-SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas stay blo SCA levels thru Monday night.

Long Term...

Tue Night -Thu AM...SCA`s likely, with GALES psb outside the
bays.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


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