Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 262032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

.SHORT TERM...
Mostly sunny across the region with CU and temperatures in the mid
80s. Light west and northwest winds across the northern half of the
region and coastal areas mixing out with southwesterly winds.
Shortwave approaching the northwest counties and should help to
further destabilize the atmosphere with isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms initially near Caldwell expanding south
and southeast then east into the evening hours. Still thinking the
main area should be Columbus to the Woodlands to Cleveland northward.
Additional storms may develop near Galveston Bay and areas to the
east as speed max arrives late afternoon. With the loss of heating
should see a rapid decrease in coverage. Pleasant night on tap with
drier air firmly in place. Wednesday should dawn mostly clear and
warm up quickly with the upper level pattern little changed other
than a slight eastward shift. Again expect a s/w to wrap around the
southwest side of the low and initiate showers and thunderstorms to
the NW of the area that expand southeastward. Earlier model runs
were mainly focused northwest of the area but recent trends continue
to support an expansion southeastward.  Models differ substantially
on the temperature/moisture profiles and hence instability. At this
point given the cooling aloft and weak to moderate mid level forcing
have opted to go with 30-50 POPs for areas along and north of I-10.
Hail looks possible but not convinced that large hail is a concern.
SPC does have a slight risk over the west and enhanced clips the
westernmost areas around Caldwell. Storms may start out slow but
with increasing development would expect storms to speed up on their
northeastward evolution. Storms capable of quick 0.5-1.5" of
rainfall but don`t expect any flooding concerns. Storms should
slowly shift southward leading into the evening hours pushing south
for more on that see the long term.
45

&&

.LONG TERM...

Some showers and thunderstorms will continue moving generally to
the southeast across the area Wednesday evening, and instability
might be high enough for some of the thunderstorms to be strong/
severe. We`ll have to see how much stability develops after these
storms move on through, but we`ll be keeping rain chances in the
forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday (higher risk up north
and northeast, lower risk near the coast) as possible weak
disturbances continue to rotate in from the north and northwest
along the back side of a slow moving storm system. This system
begins to weaken and lift on out at the end of the week, and upper
level ridging starts to develop over the weekend and on into next
week and dries the area out. This pattern change will eventually
bring warmer temperatures back to Southeast Texas too, especially
as we head on into next week when southeast winds become a little
more established.  42

&&

.MARINE...

Much lighter winds the norm through late week. A series of weak
fronts/outflow/surface troughs will drift through the UTCW and
bringing varying winds while generally in the 5-10 knot range. Seas
should continue to slowly lessen tonight. Going into Friday a cold
front pushes through the area prior to sunrise and winds increase
with SCEC conditions looking likely but short lived. North or
northeast flow through the weekend but may be a little stronger.
Showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal passage.

Tide levels should slowly diminish through Wednesday night.

Monday marks the start of the official hurricane season though
mother nature has already thrown one monkey wrench into the works
with Arthur and now a second area is being watched with a possible
invest off the east coast of FL.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 123 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with and
after peak heating as s/w approaches. As of now the terminals that
may have to deal with TSRA should be limited to CLL/UTS and
possibly CXO. Then overnight skies clearing and VFR prevails.
Tomorrow afternoon heads up could see scattered SHRA/TSRA with
impacts from area of showers developing and intensifying as they
spread into the region from the west and northwest.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      62  85  65  86  66 /  10  40  40  30  10
Houston (IAH)              69  87  69  89  70 /  20  30  30  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            74  86  76  85  76 /  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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