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000
FXUS64 KHUN 160053
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
753 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 753 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Little to no rain is currently underway over our north AL and
southern TN counties. There may be patchy drizzle at times with
ceilings lowering to under 010agl in a few locations. Have already
lowered evening PoPs to around 30 percent, but may consider lowering
further. A cold front was positioned from southern IL through
southeast MO into northwest AR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have developed along and ahead of this front. These are forecast to
move into western/central KY and TN into northern MS by 06-07Z. Then,
proceed east through southern TN and north AL. Coverage is a bit more
uncertain south of the TN River, with a greater chance further north
in TN. Have held onto chance to likely PoP later tonight as this
front moves across. A narrow ribbon of convective instability ahead
of the front will become weaker as this moves east, so still unsure
on the chance of thunderstorms for our area. Will continue to monitor
this trend and may introduce thunderstorms if this looks favorable
after examining 00Z model run.

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Temperatures remain on the cooler side post frontal passage with
afternoon highs both Wed and Thu in the mid to upper 60s, which is
5-10 degrees below climatological normals. As high pressure builds in
on Wed, the most impactful weather will be winds gusting 15-20 mph
in the afternoon. Despite colder temperatures, not expecting any wide
spread frost either Wed or Thu night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Upper ridging will build eastward through the day on Friday, with
surface flow shifting to the east as high pressure moves east of the
area. Temperatures will be quite pleasant during the day, with
plentiful sunshine allowing highs to warm into the lower to mid 70s.
The upper ridge will quickly move east of the area by sunrise on
Saturday, as a trough moves into the Plains. Southeasterly flow at
the surface will begin to filter in moisture, and with southwesterly
flow aloft, expect temps to slowly moderate. This will keep lows
from bottoming out as much as previous nights, with lows Friday night
in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Forecast models begin to diverge on their evolution of the upper flow
pattern and subsequently, the precip chances over the weekend. In
both the GFS and the ECMWF, weak southwest flow will persist through
the day on Saturday, however they differ on the placement of a weak
shortwave that will move through the eastern periphery of the broad
upper trough. As the ECMWF is a bit more progressive with this
feature, it brings rain into the forecast area beginning Saturday
afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours. The GFS does
not show this feature, keeping a dry forecast during this period.
Models come into better agreement with the evolution of a stronger
trough, which is expected to amplify and eject into the Plains on
Sunday. The GFS is faster with this feature, bringing a cold front
through the area on Monday, whereas the ECMWF lags with this cold
front about 12 hours later. Given this is the day 5-7 period, there
is plenty of time for models to change, thus have maintained a
blended solution, keeping PoPs in the chance category. With either
solution, expect the moderating trend to continue, with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Ceilings of 020-025agl (MVFR) will lower this evening below 010agl
(IFR) by ~03-04Z with an increase coverage of -SHRA. There could be
patchy -DZ at times as well. A cold front will push southeast through
the area late tonight, arriving at KMSL by ~10Z and at KHSV by ~11Z.
Ceilings should clear rapidly behind the front with VFR conditions
expected. Northwest flow will gust at 14-18kt through the day
Wednesday.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...GH
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...17


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