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633
FXUS62 KILM 151133
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
733 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase and thicken through today as a warm front
begins to lift north over the area, leading to rain tonight
into Wednesday. Unseasonably cool weather will arrive Thursday
as high pressure builds in Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will warm through the weekend as the high shifts offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A quiet weather day today, will be partially muddled by high cloud
passage off a wet southern stream system laid out across the Gulf
States this morning. Recent satellite passes with precipitable water
sensing arrays, show an axis if 2.2 inch PWAT values from Louisiana
to the western tip of the Florida panhandle. Much of this will pass
south of our area during the next 24 hours, where risks of excessive
rain prevail.

As the steering flow backs Wednesday, the higher PWAT content will
be pulled across the area ahead of a cold front. QPF is uncertain
because of the expected disorganized nature of the rain areas and
convection. The coastal zones should have more exposure to the
moisture stream, and am expecting 3/4-1.25 inches coast, to 1/2
inch farther inland. Low-end Cape, dewpoint rises into the 60s,
and moderate effective shear could result in an isolated
rumble, but mainly rain and showers expected.

Filtered sunshine and a seasonably cool start should hold most max-
Ts in the 70s today. Southerly flow and periods of rain will result
in 70s again on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A change in air mass will arrive Wed night into Thurs. Any
lingering pcp or clouds Wed eve will move rapidly off to the
east leading to clearing skies and much cooler and drier
weather for Thurs as high pressure builds in. A deep NW flow
will advect plenty of dry and cool air into the Carolinas. Pcp
water values will down near .35 inches by Thurs morning. The
850 temps will drop about 10c by Thurs aftn in deep cold
advection. Bright Oct sunshine will not be enough to offset the
CAA, leaving high temps below 70 most places. Overall expect
cool and dry high pressure to settle over the Carolinas. Enough
cool air will advect in Wed night to bring overnight lows down
below 50 most places, but Thurs night should drop into the mid
40s most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be migrating overhead through Friday before
shifting offshore late Sat into Sun. The cold and dry air mass
will modify by the end of the weekend as a southerly return flow
sets up. Therefore temps running below normal at the start of
the weekend will warm above normal by early next week. Decent
radiational cooling will give way to another night in the 40s
while daytime highs will be reaching near 70. By the end of the
weekend, temps will be up near 80 for highs and in the 60s for
lows. Sunny days will give way to increasing clouds and chc of
pcp Sun night into Mon as warm air starts to ride up and over
the shallow cooler air in place as warm front/coastal trough

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will prevail during daytime hours today, with broken cirrus
deck across the area streaming in from the west. Warm front
passage overnight will lead to rain and MVFR clouds, with
reduced visibilities likely in heavier rain areas. Expect MVFR
conditions in NE SC between 6 and 9z, with MVFR in SE NC in last
couple hours of TAF period. Light northeast winds this morning
will veer to southeasterly by tonight, before becoming easterly
again overnight as warm front approaches.

Extended Outlook...IFR/MVFR conditions Tuesday night through
Wednesday with an improvement to cooler and drier conditions and
VFR through the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm frontal system will bring worsening marine conditions, but
not until Wednesday. For today NE winds will lighten and veer to SE
late today and tonight. Rain in reduced visibility and increasing
winds, will overspread the waters Wednesday and a Small Craft
Advisory has been raised for SSW gusts to 25 kt and 6-7 foot seas
offshore. Wind-seas will dominate the wave spectrum Wednesday,
making for hazardously steep waves. Visibility may be reduced to
below 1 NM at times Wednesday in heavy rain. Isolated TSTMs
possible.

Strong CAA in gusty offshore winds behind cold front, should
keep seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. The offshore flow will keep
greatest seas in the outer waters and may have enough 6 fters to
create a marginal SCA through Wed night. Gradient relaxes as
high pressure builds in from the west. Speeds drop to 10 kt or
less later Thu with offshore flow slowly become onshore Fri into
Sat. Seas build from 2 to 3 ft Tue night to 4 to 6 ft on Wed.
Offshore flow Wed night into Thu will drop seas for the end of
the week. Seas will be a mix of 4 to 5 sec wind wave, with a
northerly wind wave Thu through Sat.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor tidal flooding requires an Advisory for the lower Cape Fear
River with this late morning`s high tide. This to include downtown
Wilmington, and the Battleship park grounds across the way.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to noon EDT Thursday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MJC/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...