Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
776 FXUS62 KILM 140950 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 550 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. A front could near mid week bringing a bit better rain chances. Should see increasing heat risk by Friday. && .UPDATE... 12Z TAF discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Mainly isolated/widely scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms *Very low severe storm risk w/ a bit greater flash flood risk inland closer to I-95 *Mostly near normal temps w/ peak heat indices away from the coast up to around 103 deg today, shy of Heat Advisory criteria Confidence: *Moderate to High, lowest regarding rain chances Details: Atlantic high pressure centered to the east along with an inland trough will dominate the weather this period with much of the same weather as the last few days. However, weak low pressure to the south near the eastern FL coast will cause an inverted trough to extend northward into the local area, mainly tonight, which could lead to a bit better chance of showers offshore and near the coast late. Otherwise, after inland fog dissipates shortly after sunrise, expect a few showers to initiate along the weak sea breeze near the coast before shifting inland where coverage will be greater by late afternoon/evening. Another round of fog is likely inland tonight. Highs today near normal ranging from the upper 80s near the coast to lower 90s inland with heat indices inland today peaking shy of Heat Advisory criteria (105 deg). Lows tonight generally near to a bit above normal in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Bermuda High builds westward a bit with a slight uptick in gradient winds out of the south into midweek, mainly starting Wed. This could help with nocturnal showers mainly over the adjacent waters and along the coast earlier in the day. In the mid to upper levels, a ridge will remain to the south, but a shortwave should drive a front into the Carolinas and could help to enhance convection into midweek. Overall, expect main focus of shwrs/tstms along sea breeze and inland along Piedmont trough, but may see a bit more activity into midweek as front/Piedmont trough gets a push eastward. High temps will be near or perhaps slightly below normal, but overall, hot and humid summertime weather will continue with clouds and shwrs affecting daytime highs. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid to upper ridge builds up from the south with height rises and increasing heat Thurs through Sat. Looks like the warmest day should be Fri with mid 90s for temps most places. This will combine with typical summertime humidity and should give way to increasing potential for heat advisory conditions and heat risk Fri and Sat. Ridging aloft should increase subsidence and dry air through the mid levels and expect convection to be more limited Thurs through Sat, with main focus of localized convection along the sea breeze and Piedmont trough during the aftn into early eve. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through 12Z/15. Main concerns are fog/stratus through daybreak, especially inland at KLBT/FLO where IFR or worse are likely. Also, some showers/storms are likely to develop near the coast starting late morning, generally shifting inland along the sea breeze during the day. Additional showers/storms should develop inland closer to a lee-side trough so overall the best rain chances should be at KFLO/KLBT this aftn/eve. More fog/stratus likely tonight with IFR or worse conditions, mainly at KLBT/KFLO after 06Z. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening showers/storms and early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through tonight...Weak low pressure will remain south of the area while a weak inverted trough extends northward into the local waters. Light E winds around 10 kt or less will shift to SE/S this afternoon. Significant sea heights will stay 2 ft or less. Tuesday through Friday...Bermuda High will build westward through midweek pushing wind an seas up from near 10 kts Tues up to 10 to 15 kts beginning Wed. This slight increase to the persistent southerly winds will drive seas up a foot or two from 2 to 3 ft on Tues up to 3 to 4 ft by Thurs and Fri, but remaining well below any advisory thresholds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...RJB/31 SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/RGZ