Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 141503 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1103 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2019

A weak boundary will approach from the north today, but will be
moisture starved and have little affect on the area this evening
and tonight as it becomes diffuse. High pressure will generally
dominate with a rather dry airmass in place. Hourly grids were
updated based on recent observations and trends and to account
for the mixing out of valley fog in some locations. No other
changes are needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2019

Some areas of river valley fog continue this morning, mainly in
the southeast. Temperatures across eastern Kentucky range from the
mid to upper 30s in the valleys to lower 40s on ridgetops. Some
patchy frost will persist in the colder valleys this morning, but
any fog and frost is expected to burn off by mid-morning. Another
clear and dry day will then be on tap for today. No significant
changes were needed for this update beyond ingesting the latest
observations and blending them into the morning. A new ZFP was not
needed, but updates have been sent to NDFD and to the web.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2019

Upper level zonal flow will continue for eastern Kentucky through
the first part of the work week. However, an upper level
shortwave trough will make its way across the Mississippi Valley
towards the Ohio Valley by midweek. Current surface analysis shows
high pressure to the northeast of the state, with an occluding
low pressure system over the northeastern portion of Minnesota and
into the upper Great Lakes. A cold front from this system will
progress southeast over the Ohio Valley today, but this front will
slow and eventually stall over northern Kentucky by this evening.
No precipitation is expected with this for eastern Kentucky
today. Surface high pressure will then build back in for the
region Tuesday, keeping dry weather through the short term period.
However, our next chance at precipitation will be Tuesday night
into early Wednesday as another low pressure system moves over the
Great Lakes, with a warm front progressing over Ohio and central
Kentucky. Meanwhile, a cold front will be on the doorstep of
western Kentucky.

Current temperatures across eastern Kentucky range from the upper
30s in some of the more sheltered valleys to mid 40s on
ridgetops. Although, a few areas in the east are in the lower 50s
at present as well. With forecast lows in the mid to upper 30s in
the valleys through dawn this morning, patchy frost is expected.
Fog has not been as much of a concern overnight as it was last
night. Although, a bit more river valley fog has developed in the
last hour or so in the south and southeast according to the
Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery. Will continue to monitor
this for any dense fog that may develop, but a Special Weather
Statement is in effect for all of eastern Kentucky for patchy
frost in the cooler valley locations as well as river valley fog
this morning. Expecting any fog to to lift by mid-morning today.

High temperatures today will be around the seasonal norm, in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Low temperatures into Tuesday morning will
be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with river valleys cooler due to
clear skies and light winds during the night. Patchy fog is also
possible towards dawn, particularly in the valleys. A slightly
warmer day will then be on tap for Tuesday, with highs in the
lower to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2019

An upper level shortwave trough currently over the Canadian
Rockies and northern U.S. Rockies will move southeast across the
Great Lakes by midweek, supporting another cold front to pass
through our area late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The
potency of the front and its upper level support should be enough
to produce some showers, despite only modest moisture return in
the warm air advection ahead of the front. In fact, weak deep
instability could even result in some thunder Tuesday night.

A large area of surface high pressure moving over the region from
west to east behind the front should bring fair weather to finish
the work week. The initial punch of cool air behind the front will
bring a renewed round of chilly temperatures with another
possibility of frost for at least some locations on Wednesday
night and Thursday night.

As the high slips to our east to start the weekend, warm air
advection will return ahead of another cold front approaching from
the northwest under brisk flow aloft. The cold front is expected
to lose momentum and stall to our northwest as it becomes strung
out parallel to the flow aloft. A broad flow off the Gulf of
Mexico is expected to develop over the eastern CONUS while a long
southwesterly fetch sets up aloft ahead of a large deepening upper
level trough over the Rockies and high plains. This could result
in showers locally as early as Sunday, but higher POPs will
probably occur in periods which are still beyond the reach of the
current long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2019

Dry weather and VFR conditions will be the story through the
period for all TAF sites. With surface high pressure continuing
its hold over the region, skies will be mostly clear with
temperatures near the seasonal norm this afternoon. Winds will be
light this morning, but increase to be between 5 and 10 knots and
from the west southwest this afternoon. However, winds will become
light and variable this evening. There is the potential for some
patchy fog development towards dawn tonight, but have did not
mention this in the TAFs for now due to low confidence in any fog
affecting the TAF sites.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CGAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CGAL


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