Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
617 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Near term...Latest satellite imagery shows generally clear skies
across the CWA with the exception of some higher clouds moving
across the northwest Sandhills and portions of northern Nebraska.
Aside from that, pretty quiet weather early this morning. While
winds have decreased from what we saw on Monday, some areas across
north central Nebraska continue to see gusts around 20 mph.

Today and Tonight...Warm air advection and plenty of sunshine for
most of the day will help push temperatures into the lower 60s for
southwest Nebraska and in the 50s elsewhere. Building high pressure
off the coast of California and a strong upper level low moving
northeast across the Great Lakes will continue to keep our area in a
northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, strong northwesterly winds
are expected to increase late morning and continue into the
afternoon hours. A weak disturbance will move through the area
tonight, bringing a small chance for precipitation across portions
of northern Nebraska. Confidence is low that any precipitation will
impact the area, however, with a few models continuing to hint at it
decided to leave very low end PoP chances. Regardless of
precipitation, increasing clouds are expected across the CWA in
association with the disturbance. Overnight lows will range from the
upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.

Wednesday...A cold will push through the area early Wednesday
morning, ushering in cooler temperatures. Highs will range from the
40s across northwest and northern Nebraska while the rest of the CWA
will be in the 50s. Behind the cold front, precipitation chances
will increase across portions of northern Nebraska late in the day.
There is also a small chance some areas could see a rain/snow mix or
all snow Wednesday evening and into the night. Additionally on the
synoptic scale, a longwave trough stretching across the northern
Plains will move northeast into Canada by Wednesday afternoon. On
the backside of this longwave a strong shortwave trough will dig
south by Wednesday evening. While this shortwave will bring the best
chances for precipitation to portions of northeast Colorado, there
is a chance that extreme southwest portions of the CWA could see
some rain and snow Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

As mentioned above, there will be a chance for precipitation across
extreme southwest Nebraska Wednesday night. Currently it looks like
precipitation will begin as all rain, but quickly switch over to
snow. At this time, confidence is low in any accumulations as models
only hint at light precipitation across our area, with the best
chances farther into Colorado. Cold temperatures will settle into
the area for Wednesday night with lows in the 20s across the area.
Cooler temperatures will remain on Thursday with highs struggling to
get out of the 40s. These temperatures will be around 10 to 15
degrees below normal for this time of the year. A upper level high
pressure over the southwestern CONUS and associated ridging will
help bounce temperatures back to seasonable normals for Friday. By
Saturday, temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal
with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Thursday through Saturday will
remain dry and generally quiet. Ridging will begin to break down on
Saturday as our next upper level trough begins to move into the
pacific northwest. This will bring an unsettle weather pattern to
the area, with precipitation chances returning Saturday night and
continue through Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

The primary aviation weather concern for western and north central
Nebraska is wind. Northwest winds will be breezy again today with
gusts approaching 30 kts early this afternoon. Near surface winds
wane after sunset, but low level wind shear becomes possible
overnight across northern Neb (KVTN). A few light rain showers are
also possible late tonight for the northern terminals.




LONG TERM...Thorne
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