


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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087 FXUS64 KLIX 131939 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 239 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A weak shortwave moving through eastern Texas this afternoon has slightly eroded the northwestern edge of an upper ridge centered over the easter Gulf of America. Radar trends over the last few hours clearly reflect this with very high coverage across the western half of the CWA. Based on obs close enough to cells, the environment looks to be supporting 30-40 mph downdrafts which is similar to yesterday. The probably bigger potential impact, albeit small-scale, will be locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates of 2-3" could lead to urban flooding, especially if convective development becomes hung up on one of the dozens of outflow boundaries moving around this afternoon. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The upper trough will progress east and lift northward starting this upcoming week next week. This will allow the ridge nearby to spread back north across the northern Gulf Coast. Not sure how much less coverage overall we`ll have, but the more likely result will be a later convective initiation. Combine that with forecast highs solidly in the mid 90s Monday along with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s to yield borderline heat advisory conditions. With it so close and probable later initiation, decided to go ahead with the advisory for tomorrow. It`s likely that we`ll need to reissue Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday depending on increasing rainfall coverage as we transition from heat to wet. Models continue to showcase an increasing mid to late week convective coverage increase as an inverted trough tracks across Florida and westward over the northern Gulf Coast. It looks like quite deep tropical moisture with a large envelope of 2.5"+ PW which is well above the 90th percentile and actually right near peak values for this time of year. Way to soon to determine if it`ll attain tropical characteristics. Regardless, the local area would be in a fairly wet pattern for a few to several days. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Radar over the last couple hours shows numerous showers and storms across the entire area. Most terminals will see at least short term impact from this activity at some point today. The current environment looks to support storm gusts 30-40kts for brief instances. MVFR to VFR conditions outside TSRA the rest of the day then VFR the rest of the period until late Monday morning when convection starts back up. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Relatively quiet marine conditions will continue through the next few days as high pressure remains overhead or at least nearby. Winds generally onshore at 10 knots or less with seas under 2 feet. The only exception would be brief gale force wind gusts from isolated storms. A broad area of low pressure moving into the northeastern Gulf middle of next week my induce offshore flow as it approaches. If it tracks north of the local waters, offshore winds continue. If its south of the area, onshore flow can be expected. Regardless, did increase winds by about 5 knots over NBM deterministic to attempt to account for pressure gradient influence. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 93 73 95 / 20 40 0 30 BTR 74 93 75 95 / 10 50 0 30 ASD 73 93 74 95 / 10 40 0 40 MSY 78 93 78 95 / 10 50 0 40 GPT 75 93 76 95 / 10 40 10 40 PQL 73 93 75 96 / 10 30 10 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ046>048- 056>060-064-065-070-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ086>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME