Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 212127
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
327 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2020

Discussion...

1036 MB Arctic High pressure over western Tennessee bringing cold
and dry conditions to the region for the next 24 hours. Freeze
Warning tonight for northern zones of Louisiana and all of LIX
Mississippi forecast counties. Surface High will move to the east
of the CWA while an upper level ridge will temporarily pass
overhead during the middle part of the weekend. This will bring a
gradual warming trend with temperatures back to near average and dry
conditions lasting through Sunday. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be on the increase by Monday as a potent closed
upper level trough over northeastern Oklahoma deepens and moves
eastward dragging an associated cold front into the Arklatex by
Monday morning. The threat of showers and isolated storms will
continue through Monday night and possibly linger into the early
part of Tuesday as strong surface low moves along the Ohio and
Tennessee River valleys early next week. Another Arctic blast
possible to likely by the middle and latter part of next week as a
deep upper level longwave trough sets up over the Mississippi
River valley bringing potentially some of the coldest air of the
season along with it. Dry and well below normal conditions will
prevail though the remainder of the forecast period from Wednesday
and beyond.



&&

.AVIATION...North winds at all terminals with gusty winds up to
20 to 25 mph at NEW and MSY through late afternoon with winds
tapering to less than 10 to 15 at NEW and MSY to light and
variable at remaining TAF sites after 00z this evening. SKC will
dominate sky conditions with VFR conditions prevailing the
remainder of period.


&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory will expire at 6 PM for the coastal waters.
Offshore flow will continue to weaken through Saturday. High
pressure will remain in place through the weekend. Surface High
will move off the Carolina Coast by Sunday evening bringing a
light return flow. Return flow will remain in place through early
week until another arctic front moves through by the middle of
next week. This will likely bring a minimum of Small Craft
Advisory conditions to all waters once again.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  57  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  32  58  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  59  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  41  58  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  35  56  42  62 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  31  59  39  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for
     LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-071-072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ532-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for
     MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$


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