Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 202007
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
307 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure centered over the western Carolinas this afternoon,
with a frontal boundary to the north of that extending along the
Ohio River westward to the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern New
Mexico. Weak onshore flow in place producing scattered small
cumulus fields, mainly south of Interstate 10. 2 PM CDT
temperatures in the 80s, and can`t rule out one or two spots
potentially topping out at 90 or so. Dew points ranging from the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Guidance backing off on potential for dense fog overnight tonight.
Can`t eliminate the possibility, but certainly don`t see enough
signals for an advisory.

Easterly wave that originally was expected to move into the area
later in the week is apparently as far west as it`s going to go.
Southern stream shortwave will lift it northward into Georgia and
the Carolinas over the next few days. The southern stream
shortwaves will weaken as they move across the area Thursday and
Friday. Models are really backing off of rain chances, especially
on Thursday. Have currently backed those down to 30-40 percent in
agreement with surrounding offices, and that may still be too
high. Will hold onto the Friday higher PoPs for now, but would be
surprised to see those lower as well in later forecasts. Not going
to be a major rain producer in any case.

Regarding temperatures, likely to see highs remain in the 80s
through Friday, although if rain occurs too early Friday, could
fall a little short there. Overnight lows likely to creep up a
couple degrees over the next few days, and blends should take care
of those OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...

Precipitation may linger into Friday night before shortwave
ridging limits further rain chances through the weekend. Beyond
the weekend, medium range models begin to have issues regarding
upper system moving out of the 4 Corners area. GFS solution is
much quicker in opening and ejecting wave eastward. For example,
at 18z next Wednesday, GFS has upper ridging off the Carolina
coast with the upper system over the Texas Panhandle. ECMWF
solution has upper ridging just about overtop of our area with the
upper low near Phoenix. Quite a difference in sensible weather as
we get into the mid and latter portions of the week, somewhat
beyond the forecast period. For now, will keep low mention of
precipitation for Monday and Tuesday with well above normal
temperatures continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...

Currently only scattered cumulus across the area, with maybe one
or two sites producing a brief BKN030. Should be primarily VFR
through 06z. Fog/low cloud threat doesn`t appear to be quite as
high as the last couple nights, but can`t rule it out entirely as
temperatures continue to warm slightly. Low clouds probably
somewhat more favored, and MVFR to IFR more favored, particularly
at KMCB and KBTR. Any restrictions should improve by 15z
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Will continue Exercise Caution headlines across most of the open
coastal waters overnight. Expect that there will be at least a
potential for headlines through at least Thursday over portions of
the waters, but do not anticipate Small Craft Advisories at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  85  67  84 /   0   0   0  30
BTR  67  87  67  85 /   0   0   0  40
ASD  66  87  67  85 /   0   0   0  40
MSY  71  84  72  82 /   0   0   0  40
GPT  68  83  69  82 /   0   0   0  30
PQL  67  87  67  85 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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