060
FXUS64 KLZK 140628
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
128 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

-Chances for rain and thunderstorms will slowly diminish through
 mid-week.

-Temperatures are expected to increase to above normal values by
 mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Early morning satellite/radar data shows precip largely moving
out of the area with much of the state drying out. Looking across
eastern OK/western AR, a remnant MCV is in place. This feature
will continue to drift NE through the day and may help trigger
showers/storms across N/NW AR this afternoon. In the wake of
yesterday`s fairly widespread precip, some FG may be possible
through the early morning hours.

The H500 trough that has been in place the last few days will
linger over the region and continue to influence rain chances
across the state for another day or two more. Coverage will be
slightly less than the past couple of days, but still expecting a
fair amount of activity during the afternoon/evening hours before
precip diminishes after sunset. With weak shear in place and high
PW values, a few storms could produce localized strong wind gusts
and heavy downpours. Temperatures will remain in check again
today with afternoon highs only expected to make it into the 80s F
to lower 90s F.

From Tue-Wed the mid-level trough will likely be absorbed into
the zonal flow north of the area and ridging across the SE US
will expand W/NW toward the Lower MS River Valley/Southern
Plains. This will provide a decrease in rain chances and an
increase in temperatures. By late week, highs may top out in the
mid to upper 90s F across much of the state. With Td values in the
70s F, this will lead to heat index values at or above 105 in
some locations. While precip chances will decrease, diurnally
driven isolated showers/storms will remain possible through the
rest of the period

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A mix of MVFR/VFR conds are expected with possibly IFR conds
within/near TSRA activity. Precip should decrease in coverage and
intensity by predawn hours, with mentions of PROB30s in the
afternoon with diurnal heating for Cntrl/Nrn terminals. Winds will
be W/SW at around 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  72  90  73 /  60  20  50  10
Camden AR         91  73  94  74 /  40  20  30  10
Harrison AR       83  69  87  71 /  60  20  40  10
Hot Springs AR    89  71  92  72 /  50  20  40  10
Little Rock   AR  90  74  92  75 /  50  20  40  10
Monticello AR     92  75  95  76 /  40  20  30  10
Mount Ida AR      86  71  90  72 /  60  30  40  10
Mountain Home AR  85  70  87  71 /  60  20  50  10
Newport AR        90  73  92  75 /  60  20  40  10
Pine Bluff AR     91  73  93  75 /  40  20  30  10
Russellville AR   87  72  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
Searcy AR         90  72  92  73 /  60  20  40  10
Stuttgart AR      90  75  92  76 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67