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000
FXUS64 KLZK 132341
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
641 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.AVIATION...
High pressure is sliding eastward and southerly winds have
returned to Arkansas. Showers have exited southern Arkansas but
the clouds will continue. Patchy fog is expected in the south in
the morning with MVFR conditions, otherwise VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 252 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday

As of 20Z, rainfall continues across far southern AR within a
plume of relatively deep moisture. Instability remains low,
although occasional lightning strikes have been noted. The subtle
upper wave influencing this activity will continue pushing east
through the evening with rain ending by late evening. Residual
cloud cover will linger, however.

Monday will see a lull in precipitation owing to the absence of
large-scale forcing and significant poleward moisture flux. That
said, a compact and fast-moving upper low will dive southeastward
through the northern Plains late in the period. Models are in
agreement with the pacing and intensity of this feature and show a
relatively substantial mass field response as the upper low
approaches.

A lingering warm front well to our south will lift north, reaching northern
LA by Tuesday afternoon/evening. Deep moisture will lift atop the
frontal boundary with rainfall overspreading the area south-to-
north beginning as early as Monday night. Instability appears
marginal across our area, so thinking the best potential for
widespread thunder and heavy rain will reside just to our south.
By the end of the period, another substantial cold front will be
queued up just to our northwest.

Temperatures will gradually warm to near average through early
week. Expect highs in the 60s and 70s each afternoon. Tonight,
lows will dip into the 40s to near 50 degrees, and by Tuesday
morning, lows will range from the 50s to low-60s.

Cooper

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

At the start of the period, a deepening H500 low will be making its
way eastward from the Upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes region with
some ridging across the west. At the surface, a cold front will
begin making southwestward progress across the state. While most of
the rain associated with these features will occur during the short
term portion of the forecast, rain chances will linger across
southeast Arkansas through early Wednesday morning.

In the wake of the front and upper low, high pressure will build
into the region with cooler and drier air expected statewide. This
will be a fairly significant cooldown, but not as intense as this
past weekend`s. Lows Wednesday morning will fall into the upper 30s
to lower 40s with highs in the 50s and 60s Wednesday afternoon.

As surface and upper ridging begin to shift east Thursday into
Friday, dry conditions will remain in place but southwesterly flow
will setup across the Southern Plains. Temperatures will begin to
moderate.

By next weekend, model solutions tend to agree on a deepening,
fairly intense H500 trough beginning to progress east across the
western US. With a surface low and adjacent cold front slowly
approaching from the Central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley and
pieces of energy lifting northeast ahead of the main trough,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will become a possibility. Near
the end of the period and just beyond, depending on the track/timing
of the upper trough and surface low, there could be a threat for at
least a few strong to severe thunderstorms across the state.

67

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51