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000
FXUS64 KLZK 252047
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020

.Short Term...Tonight thru Thursday...
WV imagery shows a broad trof digging southward across the plains,
and extending back into the Rockies. Center of closed low appears to
be along the KS/OK border, which is fairly consistent with 12Z model
progs.

This system will continue to dig and track eastward across Arkansas
tonight thru tomorrow morning, with the upper low pivoting across
southern Missouri.

Precipitation will start to develop and spread across the area
tonight, although with much of the atmosphere remaining rather dry,
the extent and amount of rainfall should be on the low side. Models
are showing a lot of disagreement on the extent of the rainfall
overnight, which is another reason why I have kept POPs on the low
side.

Across northern AR, surface temps tonight will drop to near or below
freezing at the surface. As the low tracks across the area, I expect
there will be a light mixture of rain and snow in some areas,
turning to light snow in other areas. At the moment it appears that
accumulations will be rather light.

As the trof kicks out of the area tomorrow, high pressure will build
in across the surface, while a northwesterly flow sets up aloft.
This should allow skies to clear by tomorrow night, allowing temps
to drop below freezing again in most areas. Temps will not recover
too much on Thursday - topping out in the upper 40`s to the lower
50`s, although that should be mitigated somewhat by plenty of
sunshine.

&&

.Extended Term...Thursday Night thru Tuesday Night...
No major changes to the long term forecast...period begins with a
deep upper low lifting out of the N/Ern US, with ridging settling
over the Rockies. Settled weather will persist through the weekend
as a broad region of sfc high pressure tracks Ewrd across the Srn
Gulf Coast. Temperatures over the weekend will be mild, with highs
around the low-60s for most of the state.

Upper ridging will transition to a brief period of quasi-zonal flow,
before backing towards S/Wrly flow as a progressive wave digs
into the S/Wrn US. As sfc high pressure shifts Ewrd and a new sfc
low develops across the OK/TX panhandle, Srly winds will return to
the Natural State. WA/moisture advection will allow for a "spring-
like" airmass to encompass the state with temperatures approaching
the mid-60s and dewpoints in excess of 50 degrees. The sfc low will
lift towards the N/E across the OK/KS/MO border region, with PoPs
returning to the fcst area after a relatively dry and settled
period. WAA will likely lead to widespread precipitation, with a
quasi-stationary boundary settling across the state from S/W to N/E.
This boundary will remain the focus for precipitation over the fcst
area, before a new low develops towards the S/W with an ejecting
upper wave.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     35  43  27  48 /  20  20   0   0
Camden AR         40  48  29  52 /  20  20   0   0
Harrison AR       30  37  24  48 /  40  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    38  45  28  51 /  20  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  39  47  29  50 /  20  10   0   0
Monticello AR     42  48  30  51 /  30  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      37  43  26  51 /  20  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  32  39  25  48 /  30  20   0   0
Newport AR        36  44  26  47 /  30  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     40  47  29  50 /  20  20   0   0
Russellville AR   37  45  26  51 /  20  20   0   0
Searcy AR         37  45  27  48 /  20  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      39  46  28  48 /  20  20   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...53 / Long Term...Green