Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 301956
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Sunday Night...Forecast Confidence: Medium to
High...

High pressure will be building into the region tonight into
Sunday. A weak wave that is moving through may cause a few showers
or sprinkles to develop along the lake shore this afternoon. The
soundings are not showing a ton of moisture present, but looks
like there will be decent low level lift. So left the chance for
light precip in the forecast.

As the high pressure build into the region, skies will begin to
clear and dry conditions will persist. The clear skies, calm
winds, and dropping temperatures may cause some patchy frost to
develop tonight. Tonight`s low temperatures are expected to remain
in the 40s, but if temperatures cool to the dew point then patchy
frost could develop toward central Wisconsin. The high pressure
will be moving southeast out of the area Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...

Monday and Monday Night...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

We will the continuation of the upper level ridge building into
the region Monday. As the ridge builds in we will also see an
upper level shortwave push through northern Wisconsin. This will
bring potential for showers and storms for southern Wisconsin
especially with lots of WAA, however, models suggest that
precipitation may remain north of the CWA where the best forcing
will be especially with the warm front to the north. There still
remains chance for some precipitation given the uncertainty but
much of the CWA may end up remaining dry especially the strong
capping inversion that will likely be present.


Tuesday through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Much of the day Tuesday will remain dry with temperatures reaching
the upper 80s to low 90s for highs. Into the evening however, a
system associated with an upper level shortwave  will push in
from the west. This will bring the chance for showers and storms
across the region through Wednesday. While there continues to be
plenty of uncertainty it appears likely that the CWA will see some
precipitation during this period. Some storms will this system
may also be strong with potential for lots on instability Tuesday
evening however the later timing may play a role in decreasing
potential for stronger storms.

Thursday through Saturday...Forecast Confidence is Low...

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty Thursday and beyond with
initially a more zonal flow pattern developing. Friday and
Saturday may feature a few systems rolling through but the
uncertainty in the models is really high with no real large scale
signals at the moment.


&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will persist through the period. A weak wave is
moving through the area this afternoon, which may bring a few
showers/sprinkles in the east. High pressure will build into the
region this evening. The high pressure will be centered over Lake
Michigan by Sunday. A lake breeze will be likely by the early
afternoon today and again on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

Northwest winds will persist the midday hours before a weak wave
slides through the area. As the weak wave moves through, breezy
north to north east wind will develop. High pressure will build
into the Midwest today into tonight. The high pressure will become
centered over Lake Michigan Sunday. Thus winds will become
lighter tonight into Sunday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...Patterson
Sunday Night through Saturday...ARK



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