Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 062030
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
430 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the area this evening. High pressure
will then build in tonight into Sunday, moving overhead by mid
week. A cold front will approach at the end of the week followed
by another frontal system over the next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As cold front continues to approach from the west, showers and
thunderstorms are moving through the area and should clear the
coast by this evening. Skies are clearing behind the main
convective line and winds will shift to the west/northwest.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches due to
lingering long period swells.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front continues to move offshore this evening,
ushering in a cooler, drier airmass in its wake. Clouds will
continue to diminish as well, with lows in the upper 50s and low
60s under westerly winds.

On Sunday, the upper trough axis moves through the area. With
limited moisture available, only expecting some scattered cloud
cover by the afternoon. Models do agree on some showers across
eastern CT as the trough axis swings through.  Have increased
PoPs across far west CT as a result, but confidence is low as
mid levels are relatively dry per model soundings.

Upper ridging builds in from the west on Sunday evening with high
pressure at the surface. Low temperatures will be a bit lower
Sunday night, particularly across the interior.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure will
build into northeast Monday through the middle of next week
resulting in a long stretch of dry weather. As high pressure
moves overhead, temperatures will be rise to normal or a few
degrees above through most of the week.

For the second part of next week, an upper-level trough will
approach the region from the west with a surface low moving
through the Great Lakes. Models are in fair agreement that the
surface low brings a cold front through the area by Thursday
afternoon into Friday. Another front approaches the area by the
second half of the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will move through this afternoon ending the threat
for any showers/thunderstorms.

A front moving across the region this afternoon will continue
the threat for some VCTS for a few hours, otherwise VFR
conditions forecast for all terminals. Winds shift W-NW 10-15
kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon. Winds decrease tonight
then winds gust again on Sunday out of the N-NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sun...VFR. NW gusts 15-20 kt.
.Mon-Wed...VFR. S gusts around 20 kt on Weds.
.Thu...VFR-MVFR in showers. S gusts around 15 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front moves across the waters this afternoon and evening.
20 kt gusts are possible with the front passage. Otherwise, sub-SCA
conditions are forecast through Wednesday.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are forecast through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal flood statement has been issued for this evening`s
high tide for the south shore back bays in southern Nassau and
Southern Queens. Total water levels remain high due to the
recent fall moon. Another statement may be needed for Sunday
evening`s high tide.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing
its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

KOKX WSR-88D radar will be down until approximately June 15 for
the pedestal refurbishment.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/MW
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...DS/MW
AVIATION...Fig
MARINE...DBR
HYDROLOGY...DBR
TIDES/COASTAL...
FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...



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