181
FXUS66 KOTX 132316
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
416 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry, and gusty winds leading to elevated to critical fire
  weather conditions Sunday and Monday.

- Strong cold front from the north Monday delivering windy
  conditions. Brief damaging winds possible for the Okanogan
  Valley, northern mountains, and north Idaho Panhandle.

- Areas of blowing dust Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake area Monday
  evening.

- Much cooler temperatures Tuesday across Eastern Washington and
  North Idaho

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Big weather changes will occur late on Monday as a strong cold
front moves through the region from the north. The front will
deliver windy conditions from the north and northwest, and
critical fire weather conditions for much of Eastern Washington.
This system will also deliver rain showers to the Idaho
Panhandle, and a chance of showers over NE Washington. Tuesday
will be cooler with breezy northeast winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the Methow
Valley, Chelan and Wenatchee areas, and the Waterville Plateau.
A zonal flow and an approaching trough from the north will bring
enhanced winds to these areas from mid-afternoon into the
evening.

Monday: There continues to be several large weather concerns. A
strong cold front will come down from the north. This type of
pattern in the past has produced high winds in the Okanogan
Valley and confidence has increased for this to occur.
A closed low over drops south along the British Columbia coast,
before reaching Kelowna, BC late Monday afternoon.

* Winds/Fire Weather: A very tight pressure gradient will
  develop between rain cooled air over southern BC, and warm
  temperatures in the 90s across the Columbia Basin and NE
  Washington. Pressure gradients between 8-10 mb from Kelowna to
  Omak and strong summertime cold fronts are a good recipe for
  high winds. Currently the high end gusts from the NBM are
  going for 55-60 MPH gusts for Omak, and the forecast is
  leaning towards this high end scenario. Although the high
  resolution model guidance isn`t as excited about these
  stronger gusts which limits forecast confidence to moderate.
  This pattern also has historically produced 40-50 MPH gusts
  over NE Washington producing localized wind damage and power
  outages and fire starts. Thus a Wind Advisory will be issued
  to account for this. The Fire Weather Watches will also be
  upgraded to Red Flag Warnings. Heading into Monday evening, a
  very tight pressure develops over the North Idaho Panhandle
  with sharp pressure rises. Channeling of the winds through the
  Purcell trench will lead to sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with
  gusts of 40-50 MPH. A separate wind advisory will be issued
  for this area for Monday Night into Tuesday morning. Winds of
  this magnitude will likely lead to some power outages and tree
  damage around the region.

* Blowing Dust: Winds of this magnitude spreading south onto
  the Waterville Plateau and around the Moses Lake area combined
  with very dry soils is likely to kick up blowing dust. Given
  we are not in planting season confidence in precise amounts
  and impacts carries lower confidence.

* Shower/Thunderstorm Potential: As the low tracks over NE
  Washington towards the Central Panhandle Mountains Monday
  Night into Tuesday morning, this places the North ID Panhandle
  and Pend Oreille county in the NE quadrant of the low. How far
  west and south the showers extend carries lower confidence,
  but wetting rains are possible around Metaline Falls,
  Sandpoint, and Bonners Ferry. Thunderstorms are also possible
  Monday evening in these same areas.

* Heat: The heat advisory remain in place through Monday for
  most of the area. The exception is the Okanogan Valley,
  Wenatchee area, and Waterville Plateau where high temperatures
  only in the low 90s on Monday will result in the Heat
  Advisory ending this evening at 8 PM.

Tuesday as the low pushes southeast a northeast pressure
gradient will lead to breezy northeast winds (except stronger in
the morning for the Purcell Trench of North ID as mentioned
earlier). Temperatures will be much cooler over NE WA/ID
Panhandle on Tuesday, with highs only in the 70s!

Tuesday night through Sunday: Northeast winds will gradually
decrease Tuesday evening as the system moves to the southeast and
the tight northeast surface pressure gradient slackens. There are
some discrepancies on the overall synoptic pattern with about 55% of
ensembles keeping the Inland Northwest under an area of broad
troughing Wednesday through Sunday and the other ~45% of ensembles
showing subtle ridging. For Wednesday and Thursday, there is high
confidence for temperatures to trend warmer, then the spread in
possible solutions increases Friday through Sunday with about a 10
degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentile maximum
temperatures. The broad troughing would also result in occasional
shower chances primarily across northeast Washington and north Idaho
through the week with the ridging favoring a drier forecast. /vmt

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail across the Inland
Northwest through 00z Monday. Expect high cirrus clouds at
times. Breezy west winds develop through the Cascade gaps with
gusts 20-28kts through the evening. In the Basin and Spokane
area, gusts will be closer to 20kts or less. Skies will be hazy
to smoky due to regional fires especially across the northern
portions of eastern Washington into North Idaho. Stronger,
shifting winds will develop across the region Monday afternoon
into the evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. Low
confidence on how smoke/haze will impact smaller airports from
Omak (KOMK) to Colville (KCQV) to Sandpoint (KSZT) today. Smoke
may drop visibility to between 6-10 SM for these airports. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        66  93  58  76  53  85 /   0  10  20  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  64  91  58  75  53  85 /   0  10  40  30  10   0
Pullman        61  89  55  77  49  83 /   0   0   0  20  10   0
Lewiston       72  99  67  88  60  93 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Colville       55  89  46  75  42  86 /   0  10  50  30   0   0
Sandpoint      60  87  53  70  47  81 /   0  20  70  40  10   0
Kellogg        67  88  60  70  53  81 /   0  10  40  40  10   0
Moses Lake     67  96  64  83  57  90 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      73  92  66  85  63  91 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Omak           65  92  60  86  56  91 /   0   0  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee area-Waterville Plateau

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -
     Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone
     709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and
     Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-
     Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin
     (Zone 707).

     Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Waterville Plateau.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Okanogan Valley-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for East
     Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-Foothills of
     Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley
     (Zone 704)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706).

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday for Okanogan
     Valley.

ID...Wind Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Lewiston Area.

&&

$$