Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
514 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Early this morning, a surface ridge axis extended from the Ohio
Valley to lower MS Valley. TS Nestor was south of the FL Panhandle.
Meanwhile, a surface front extended from the Upper Midwest, south
into the southern Plains, ahead of a H5 trof over the mid CONUS.
Showers and a few storms were observed with the front.

Through the day, moisture will approach the CWFA from the west,
and southeast. From the west, mainly mid level (H7 moisture), and
lower level moisture (H8 and below) progged to move toward west
KY. Some of the HiRes guidance hints at weak echos into SEMO, and
the KY Pennyrile. However, given the lack of significant lift, and
marginal moisture, will leave PoPs out. We will carry a chance of
sprinkles in these two areas. The rest of the region should be
dry. Highs will reach into the lower 70s.

Tonight, maybe sprinkles in the evening in the KY Pennyrile
region. Otherwise variable clouds. Model soundings hint there may
be some low clouds around, or some patchy fog. We have a hint of
that now in the forecast. The added clouds and light winds should
keep lows up near CONSRaw model output. Quiet weather is
anticipated Sunday as weak high pressure gives way to return flow
through the day, allowing highs to reach into the mid 70s.

Focus for Sunday night through Monday will be the chance of
convection and possibly strong to severe storms. Sunday evening
should be quiet. By midnight, some convection may approach or extend
just into west KY and SEMO as moisture transport increases.

After midnight through 12z Monday morning, the chance for
convection should increase substantially from SEMO into SW IL and
far west KY. We raised PoPs accordingly. Also, strong/severe
parameters become marginally favorable from 09-12z into SEMO, far
West KY and the southern tip of IL. This is faster than what has
been advertised up to this point, through there has been model
consistency in this timing aspect the past 3 days.

Best MUCAPES (up to 1000 j/kg on the high end of guidance) are
forecast across SEMO, southern tip of IL and far west KY early on.
The favorable parameters for marginal severe should continue to
expand east from 12z-18z Monday morning weakening with time,
likely in response to increasing areal coverage of convection, as
strong upper divergence will enhance lift by way of the right rear
jet quadrant nearby. The increase in convection will serve to
weaken lapse rates overall. Having said this, 0-1km shear is still
respectable, even 18z-21z from southwest IN, into west KY. So we
will not be out of the woods until the front clears the area. The
main hazards will be isolated strong wind gusts from embedded
bowing segments. We may have some cellular activity early on (09z-
15z). Supportive 0-1km shear and early on MUCAPES may support
brief, weak spin ups. There should probably be at least a marginal
severe risk over SEMO, maybe west KY and far southern IL prior to
12z Monday. Locally heavy rain is a concern as well, though
widespread impacts are not anticipated.

We will clear out Monday night in the wake of the front. Highs
Monday should reach into the lower 70s, with lows Monday night down
into the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

By 12z Tuesday the GEFS 500h mean shows a short wave moving through
main trough over the area. Skies should have cleared. The surface
gradient weakens during the day so a few wind gusts are possible
into the early afternoon. The surface high pressure behind the front
comes in from the west so temperatures for the middle part of the
week are slightly below normal and rise to near normal by Thursday
as the surface high moves to the east and southerly flow resumes.

The next wave moving into the main trough over the central/eastern
U.S. is over the central plains by 00z Thursday. There is some
variability in timing and strength but general consensus seems OK. A
surface cold front runs from about Madison WI to Lubbock TX.

As the short wave and cold front reach the area on Thursday/Thursday
evening another short wave digs down the western side of the main
trough over the Utah area. Although there is quite a bit of
variability with this feature, mainly with timing, the main trough
deepens by 00z Friday over the central part of the U.S.

Ahead of the digging short wave, 850h winds turn southerly and
brings in some moisture from the Gulf. Moisture appears to be
limited and not very deep. So rain amounts should be on the light
side of less than 1 inch.

Signs of winter not too far away with 850h temperatures near zero
over portions of Southeast Missouri during the day on Friday
according to the ECMWF. The GEFS mean 850h temps keep the zero line
over northern Missouri.


Issued at 514 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Generally VFR today and most of tonight. There may be some MVFR
cigs or VSBYS after 06z. Sprinkles of rain will be possible this
afternoon and evening over the KY Pennyrile region, and this
afternoon across southeast MO. Winds will be light.




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