Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 272327
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
727 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is returning to the region tonight and early Thursday with the
remnant of Tropical Storm Bertha. Showers and thunderstorms can be
expected with the approach and passage of a Friday cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
No major changes were needed for the eve update as the remnant
of TS Bertha will be crossing the region in southerly flow aloft.
Given a lack of instability with dry mid level layer, precipitation
will initially light, but will eventually become more efficient with
saturation. Problematic rainfall totals are not expected with a
quarter to half inch projected by the Ohio River Forecast Center.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Widespread rain should clear the Upper Ohio Valley by mid-morning
Thursday as shortwave ridging ensues in the wake of Bertha, but
shortwave energy in the southerly flow may support some additional
isolated to scattered showers into Thursday night.

Overall ridging, humidity, warm advection, and filtered insolation
the van on the MS Valley cutoff low will maintain warm temperature
with readings about 10 degrees above the averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Friday morning, northern stream troughing is projected to dig
over the Great Lakes region and phase with the Mid South cutoff low.
The attendant cold front is projected to stretch across the Ohio
Valley and provide focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Passage of that front will usher in a dry and seasonably cool
weekend via broad ern CONUS troughing aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR will give way to condition deterioration tonight with the advance
of low pres and associated rain. Expect eventual IFR by Thursday
morning, which will improve as the day and low progress.

.Outlook...
Widespread restrictions can be expected Friday with showers and
thunderstorms developing with the advance and passage of a cold
front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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