Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
409 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019


A cool front was moving through the region at 3 AM this morning.
This front was located generally north of highway 50, from about
Black Forest to Eads and then into west central Kansas. The front
was dry and winds were not too strong behind it (10-20 mph).


Front will continue to move south early this AM and should reach the
NM border by sunrise. Overall, expect clear and cooler weather
today. Max temps on the plains will be about 10 to 15F cooler than
yesterdays max temps. expect highs generally in the 60s today over
the lower elevations. Northerly winds will develop across the plains
this morning and will gradually veer to easterly and southeasterly
by this afternoon.

For the mtns and interior valleys, temps will be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 60s. Winds over the higher terrain will
be breezy earlier this morning but will become light (less than 15
mph) nearly all areas (including the Decker Fire). Although winds
will be lighter and it will be cooler on the plains, min RH values
will still remain low across the region, with single digits in the
mtns/valleys and 20s plains.


Dry northwesterly flow aloft will pick up a bit, but winds still
should be relatively light over the higher terrain. Lows tonight
will be in the lowe 30s most of the plains with the ridges seeing
the warmest temps. San Luis valley will likely be in he 20s with
warmer temps vicinity mtns. With warm air advection moving in over
the  higher terrain, temps in the higher valleys and mid mtns should
be relatively mild, with U20 to M30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Ensemble spreads are small through the extended. However, it
appears as though the operational solutions have changed over the
past couple of cycles. The GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement
but will have greater confidence if model runs continue to come in
drier for the extended period.

Wednesday and Thursday...upper level ridging is forecast to
transit across the area ahead of an approaching trough. Wednesday
will be dry with generally light winds across the region.
Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 70s across the
region. On Thursday, flow aloft will transition southwesterly,
allowing for mixing and a warm up across the Plains. Mid 80s are
expected for highs. In addition, the increased mixing across the
region will bring elevated fire danger due to widespread low
humidity values and strong wind gusts above 25 mph. Caution is
advised with any outdoor burning activities on Thursday.

Thursday the upper level trough approaches the region,
strong winds aloft will move across Colorado. While model
resolution at the time frame is rather coarse, it does appear that
downslope winds may be possible, especially in the lee of the
southern Sangre de Cristo range. Winds could gust as high as 50
mph and trends will have to be monitored. The strong winds will
also help keep overnight lows Thursday night into Friday morning
on the warmer side, especially along and west of I-25.

Friday through Tuesday...a persistent long wave trough will set
up across the area on Friday, with disturbances moving across the
area Friday and Sunday. A cold front will drop south over the
Plains Friday morning with cooler air behind it. Models are
bringing light snow and rainfall to the Continental Divide late
Thursday night through the day on Friday. Afternoon highs will
only reach into the 70s on Friday.

Increase flow aloft out of the west will bring another round of
elevated fire danger to the area over the weekend. Low humidity
values are expected both afternoons across the region. Winds will
also increase, with widespread gusts in excess of 25 mph possible.
Caution is once again advised due to the elevated fire weather
concerns. Models have backed off on precipitation over the
weekend. With the latest storm track more open, and across Wyoming
and Colorado, precipitation looks to remain more confined to the
Continental Divide, focusing on the Central Mountains. For now
have low pops across much of the area given the model uncertainty.

The upper level long wave trough will shift east Monday into
Tuesday. This will bring drier conditions to the area with any
precipitation coming to an end by Monday afternoon. Temperatures
will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s over the weekend. A cold
front will bring cooler air to the area on Monday, with generally
60s across the Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019

KCOS and KPUB...

Could see brief breezy conditions early this AM but sfc winds will
veer later this morning and become southeasterly over the I-25
corridor by this afternoon. It will remain dry through the period
with little in the way of cloudiness. light drainage winds are
anticipated tonight.


Clear with light winds through the period.




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