Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 220956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
256 AM PDT Tue Oct 22 2019


Strengthening high pressure off of the Pacific Coast will bring
decreasing winds and a warming trend through today. A backdoor
cold front will bring increasing east winds Wednesday through
Thursday especially for Sierra ridges. Much colder temperatures
and breezier conditions are possible by Sunday into next week.



The forecast remains on track with another day of high pressure
and overall very pleasant weather conditions for October. High
temperatures will peak in the mid 70s for western Nevada and
around 70 degrees for Sierra valleys this afternoon.

Conditions change Wednesday as a backdoor cold front will push
through the region tonight. Temperatures will trend a little
cooler with winds shifting northern early Wednesday and easterly
by Wednesday evening. As gradients tighten, especially across the
Sierra, winds will increase out of the east. Expect breezy to
gusty winds for Lake Tahoe Wednesday night into Thursday with
gusty ridge winds in the 40-55 mph range over the Sierra crest.
Some west shore communities of Lake Tahoe, like Homewood, could
see some gusts 30-40 mph tomorrow night; it would be prudent to
secure decorations for these locations.

Winds trend down by Thursday with afternoon highs in the
mid/upper 60s for western Nevada and low/mid 60s for Sierra
valleys. Boyd

.LONG TERM...Friday through early next week...

Made a few minor changes to the forecast, the main one removing the
threat of showers for early next week. Models and ensembles are
showing more variability this morning with the potential strong cold
front Sunday into Monday. Overall, the trend is farther east which
justifies the removal of the showers, but the cold air still looks
on track, with a few caveats.

Friday and Saturday still look mild with Saturday possibly being the
warmest day ahead of the front. Saturday night into Sunday, the EC
and its ensemble remain consistent with a strong cold front and much
colder air, a good 20+ degrees colder than Saturday. The GFS is much
farther east with modest cooling from a backdoor front at best. Of
note, the GEFS is stronger with the backdoor front overall, but not
like the EC family.

The forecast continues to have more of an EC blend overall. The
upstream pattern also favors a bit more of the EC with the
amplification expected in the Pacific noted in all models. Will
continue with below average temps for Sunday through Tuesday, but
not as extreme as it was looking yesterday at this time. If the
unlikely 00Z GFS were to verify, temps would remain at least a
little above average. X



VFR with light winds today into Wednesday. A backdoor cold front
will increase northeast winds over the ridges Wednesday night, with
some mtn wave turbulence near the Sierra Crest. Otherwise, it will
remain quiet this week. X


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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