686
FXUS65 KREV 010907
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
207 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A cooler day is in store today behind the passage of a shallow
cold front. Most areas will warm up again on Thursday with
increasing winds. The warming peaks on Friday with lighter winds.
However, sharply colder weather with gusty winds and increasing
chances for valley rain and high elevation snow return for the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Temperatures will fluctuate from near to above average through
  the rest of this week, with today the coolest and Friday the
  warmest for most locations.

* Lighter N-NE winds today will be followed by increased W-NW
  breezes Thursday, then decreasing winds again Friday.

* Cooler/wetter conditions with increased winds for this weekend.
  Prepare for slick winter travel over the main Sierra passes
  Saturday late afternoon-night, with lighter snow into the Tahoe
  basin.

The first week of May will represent the "typical" spring for
western NV/eastern CA, characterized by changing weather each day
and even a short reprise of winter for Sierra communities and
higher elevations this weekend.

Today will see about 5-10 degrees of cooling across most of the
region as a shallow back door cold front exits to the southeast
across the Great Basin. Brisk north winds through this morning
will ease back by this afternoon as the temperature gradient
relaxes. The only exception is for areas north of Gerlach to the
OR border that have remained on the chilly side (below 55 degrees)
since Monday--these areas may actually see highs rise by about 5
degrees.

For Thursday, another shortwave brushing across the Pacific NW
will bring increased W-NW breezes, although latest guidance
doesn`t indicate a very strong push of wind, with peak gusts
generally 25-35 mph. Areas north of Gerlach to the OR border will
again see cooler temps and even a 20-40% chance for light rain
showers, although amounts are expected to remain 0.10" or less.
South of this area, improved mixing will allow for a 5-10 degree
warmup compared to today.

For most outdoor activities, Friday looks like the overall winner
for the upcoming week, with plenty of sun, lighter winds and
above average temperatures. Even the communities near the OR
border should finally get a day of decent warmth (60s-near 70),
while elsewhere highs should reach the lower-mid 70s for lower
elevations and 60s for Sierra communities.

Unfortunately, weekends haven`t been as kind for much of this
spring season and this weekend isn`t looking very favorable
either. After several days of varied scenarios, the ensemble
guidance came in much stronger agreement over the most recent
couple of days with a colder and wetter Pacific storm tracking
into the west coast. The winds will pick up in higher elevations
Saturday morning, and elsewhere during the day Saturday with
potential gusts of 35-45 mph across lower elevations, 50+ mph for
wind prone areas, and 80+ mph for Sierra ridges.

As for that winter reprise, the peak precip rates are projected to
arrive to northeast CA and the Sierra from around midday through
early evening on Saturday. While this timing isn`t optimal for
accumulating snow in early May, higher passes could still see
periods of slushy roads with up to 2"/hour snowfall rates at
times. Snow levels still look to remain near or above 7000 feet
through Saturday afternoon, but then drop to near 5000 feet for
northeast CA and 6000 feet for the Tahoe basin into the evening.
For higher Sierra elevations above 7000-7500 feet from around
Tahoe southward to western Mono County, the potential for at
least 4" of snowfall is greater than 50%, while the Tahoe basin
northward to western Lassen County may receive a dusting up to 2"
if enough snow showers persist into the evening. Lower elevations
could see rainfall of 0.10-0.50", with the higher end of this
range favoring northeast CA/northwest NV, and lesser amounts for
the US-95/95A corridors of west central NV.

The remainder of the weekend looks quite chilly and showery with
highs only in the 40s for Sierra communities and 50s for western
NV valleys Sunday, then for early next week a drier pattern
returns with temperatures gradually warming closer to early May
averages. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of
the week. Lighter N-NE winds are expected today, although some
gusts around 20 kt could occur until 18Z across the western NV
terminals. W-NW winds increase again Thursday afternoon with
gusts 25-30 kt for the western NV terminals southward to KMMH,
and around 20 kt for KTVL/KTRK.

A more notable storm is likely to produce increased aviation
impacts Saturday-Saturday night due to gusty winds with areas of
turbulence/LLWS, increased precip chances with periods of lower
CIGS/reduced VIS, and even some light snow for the Tahoe/E Sierra
terminals. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$