Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 091724
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
124 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals outside of any
thunderstorms. Storm will continue to develop along the Florida
Panhandle sea breeze between ECP, TLH and DHN early in the period.
Other storms will develop north of VLD and east of ABY. Convective
coverage was sufficient to include tempo groups for most terminals
this afternoon. Winds will be light.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1008 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weak mid level troughing to remain through the southeast US this
period sandwiched between two height centers on either side. Surface
high pressure will be located in the Gulf with southwest to west
winds expected across the CWA. Mid levels are progged to moisten
some with PWATs increasing to 1.9-2.0" which is a little higher as
compared to the past few days. Once again expect some showers across
the Gulf waters into the Big Bend this morning then scattered
showers and storms through the afternoon into mid evening inland. Hi-
res guidance shows decent coverage and I will follow suit and go a
little higher than MOS/NBM guidance today. Since there will be more
showers and clouds around, I am slightly below NBM highs for today
in the low to mid 90s which will place heat indices in the 103-106
range this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

While the overall pattern in the lower and upper levels remains
relatively unchanged, models have been consistent in showing a
return of deep layer moisture to our region. This is reflected in
time-height cross sections and forecast soundings and will lead
to more widespread mainly diurnal convection. PoPs will be in the
40-60% range today and 50-70% on Tuesday. Temps will be near to
above seasonal levels.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The extended period shows a continuation of above seasonal chances
for mainly afternoon and evening convection with daily rain chances
mostly in the likely to categorical range (60-80%). Clouds and
more widespread convection will bring max temps down a few degrees
and closer to seasonal levels.


.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will make for favorable boating conditions
at least through the middle of the week outside of thunderstorms.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from low dispersions, there are no hazardous fire weather
conditions expected over the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become a
little more widespread heading into this week as atmospheric
moisture increases. A general 1-2 inches of rain is expected
across the area with higher amounts likely in spots. Flooding
along area rivers is not expected.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  97  74  94  74 /  10  50  40  70  30
Panama City   79  92  78  92  78 /  10  30  20  50  30
Dothan        73  95  74  95  73 /  10  60  20  70  30
Albany        75  95  75  94  75 /  20  60  60  70  30
Valdosta      74  94  74  93  73 /  20  60  30  70  30
Cross City    74  95  75  93  74 /  10  30  20  60  30
Apalachicola  78  91  77  91  77 /  10  20  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Johnstone


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