Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 180056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
856 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019


Just minor tweaks to the going forecast. Updates sent.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The near term period will generally be characterized by calm
conditions.  The tropical disturbance currently in the Bay of
Campeche is expected to interact with a midlatitude upper level
disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico Overnight tonight and
into Friday. This system is expected to have both tropical and
subtropical characteristics, and strengthen slightly through this
period. Outer showers and thunderstorms associated with this
system will become more numerous across our waters and coastal
regions toward the tail end of this period heading into Friday

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The impacts from Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 are expected to begin
on Friday and persist through Saturday. It`s important to reiterate
that regardless of whether this becomes a tropical or sub-tropical
system, the impacts remain the same. Confidence is increasing in the
following hazards:

The potential for life threatening inundation from storm surge
along the Florida Big Bend coast and minor coastal flooding along
the Panhandle coast.

Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater are likely near the
Florida coast to the west of the Ochlockonee River, and possible for
the remainder of the panhandle.

The tornado threat is elevated across the Big Bend, where isolated
tornadoes are possible.

Given the fast moving nature of the system, the flooding rain threat
is minimal, with only 2 to 4 inches of rain expected with isolated 5
inch amounts. To reiterate, regardless of development, confidence in
the aforementioned impacts is increasing.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

PTC 16 will keep moving northeast Saturday night away from the
region with light wraparound showers into the evening hours. High
pressure builds in Sunday into the first half of Monday with a
period of dry weather. The next storm system and cold frontal
passage is on tap for Monday night and Tuesday with associated
showers and thunderstorms possible. High pressure and dry air
quickly move in behind the front with dry conditions once again
for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will experience a slow
warmup Sunday and Monday followed by a cooldown Tuesday and

[Through 00Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected at all sites except TLH and ECP
through the TAF period. ECP is expected to have MVFR conditions
due to lower ceilings starting around 18 UTC on the 18th. TLH is
expected to have MVFR conditions due to lower ceilings starting
around 20 UTC on the 18th. Winds will also be increasing at all
terminals through the TAF period ahead of the system in the GOM.
Winds will also shift from northerly to easterly during this


Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 will impact the coastal waters
starting Friday and continuing into Saturday, with tropical storm
force winds and high seas expected. Seas could reach 20 feet over
the offshore waters. Conditions will improve by late Saturday with
light winds and diminishing seas into early next week.


Low dispersion values are expected across the region over the next
two days. RH values will initially be low, but will steadily
increase throughout the day on Friday. PoPs will also be
increasing throughout the day Friday, and into Friday evening
across the region. Red flag criteria will not be met.


PTC #16 is expected to approach the region on Friday and move
quickly through the forecast area by Saturday afternoon. Due to the
fast movement on the system, rainfall amounts are not expected to be
especially significant. Most model guidance shows widespread 2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated heavier amounts possible.

Antecedent conditions have flash flood guidance values rather high,
so the amount of rain expected should not produce more than a
localized flood threat in urban areas.

Area rivers are extremely low and though this rain event will cause
some rises on area rivers, none are expected to approach action
stage during this event.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   55  72  62  79  62 /   0  50  80  80  50
Panama City   60  73  65  78  65 /  20  70  90  80  40
Dothan        52  70  58  70  59 /   0  30  70  70  40
Albany        52  72  61  73  61 /   0  20  70  80  50
Valdosta      53  73  63  78  63 /   0  30  80  80  50
Cross City    58  74  65  82  66 /  10  50  80  90  50
Apalachicola  62  74  68  79  66 /  20  70  90  80  50


FL...Tropical Storm Watch for Calhoun-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Taylor-
     Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North

     Tropical Storm Warning for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-South Walton.

     High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday through
     Saturday evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday to 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
     Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola
     FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River
     to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20
     to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM...Scholl
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