Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 041146
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
746 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.AVIATION...
Showers and storms will be possible through the day, so will hold
VCSH through 15Z at all terminals, then SHRA and VCTS after 18Z.
Overall VFR conditions expected through the morning, then MVFR/IFR
expected after 18Z with lower CIGs and VSBY in passing TSRA and
heavy SHRA. Winds remain less than 10 knots outside of convection.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 413 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains aloft over the eastern part of Florida with
surface high pressure extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Cristobal remains nearly stationary over southern
Mexico and is expected to slowly weaken into a tropical depression
today. The center is expected to re-emerge over the Gulf, with the
storm re-intensifying and generally moving northward through the
weekend. This general setup will continue to pull very deep moisture
over the region, with showers and embedded thunderstorms possible at
almost any time. The Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday,
but will likely be extended. WPC still calls for 3-6 inches of
rainfall through the next week, with some areas possibly receiving
higher amounts.

Cristobal is currently forecast to make landfall somewhere along the
northern Gulf coast early next week, but abundant moisture will keep
high rain chances in the forecast for the local area.

AVIATION...
Off and on showers will continue through the morning, then some
thunderstorms will form in the afternoon. A mix of VFR/MVFR
cigs/vsbys will be likely through the forecast period. Light
southeast winds will become more southerly toward the end of the
period.

MARINE...
High pressure will remain over the Gulf of Mexico through the end of
the week with Tropical Storm Cristobal over southern Mexico. The
main threat for the next several days will be shower and
thunderstorm activity. For the weekend, Tropical Storm Cristobal
will start to move north, resulting in increasing winds and seas to
advisory levels. Winds will start to diminish early next week, but
seas will likely take longer to subside.

FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms can be expected each
day, with no red flag concerns. No significant fog is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  82  74  86  74 /  80  70  80  70
FMY  83  73  87  74 /  80  60  80  60
GIF  83  72  85  73 /  80  70  80  60
SRQ  83  73  87  74 /  80  70  80  70
BKV  84  71  87  71 /  80  70  80  60
SPG  83  74  87  74 /  80  70  80  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland
     Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-
     Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael


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