Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 220545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
145 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Some MVFR/IFR BR conditions are possible this morning at area
terminals as dewpoints remain high ahead of an advancing cold
front. Once the sun rises, conditions will quickly return to VFR.
Some showers are possible at terminals around the Tampa Bay area
and northward this afternoon. SW winds around 8-11kts become NW
and then more NNW this evening after the front passes.


.Prev Discussion... /issued 825 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis show a highly amplified upper
level pattern in place over the conus this evening. The main
feature is a deep but progressive trough that has dug all the way
down to the northern Gulf coast. This trough is supporting a
strong area of occluded low pressure centered over the upper
midwest. An elongated frontal system extends from this system
down through the Ohio/TN valleys and then into the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. A large area of showers/storms has been steadily
moving along the northern Gulf coast and through the deep south
ahead of this front this afternoon/early evening. However, this
energy is about to run up against a strong and stubborn area of
upper level ridging extending from the Bahamas...across south
Florida...and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Global guidance in good
agreement that this ridge will win the battle and significantly
hold back the upper level synoptic support by the time the lower
level frontal system makes it down into the west-central Florida.

For the rest of the evening...the warm front that has been slowly
migrating northward across the region today is currently analyzed
up toward the Florida Big Bend area...and still forcing a few
shallow showers that have been occasionally moving onshore into
Levy County. These showers will likely persist for another couple
of hours before the warm front lifts further north...taking the
lower level focus for lift with it. The remainder of the overnight
looks to be mostly dry for our the showers/storms off
to our NW slow in their forward progress and weaken. Generally
light winds overnight...thin passing clouds...and still saturated
soils will likely result in patchy late night fog in the normally
fog prone locations away from the coast. Temperatures will remain
well above normal (mainly 70s) for the second half of October as
our region stays within the thermal ridge ahead of the approaching

Tuesday...The low level front will continue to make slow progress
into the region...reaching the Nature Coast counties during the
afternoon. Aloft...the energy forcing all the storms to our NW
this evening will shear out quickly to the northeast around the
periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge...with barely any
height falls / synoptic lift arriving over our heads. The lower
level frontal focus will be essentially be the only lifting
mechanism...keeping the shower activity unorganized and generally
light as it moves into the northern counties. The weakening trend
will only continue as the front progresses southward...and not
expecting much (if any) shower activity as one moves southward
from the I-4 corridor. The front itself will likely make it
through to south Florida by the mid-evening hours...but at this
point we should see it stall. With the front to the south, we
should manage to get a 1-2 day period of drier air across much of
our region, but it will be short-lived as moisture quickly returns
during the end of the week as the next frontal system dips into
the deep south.

AVIATION (22/00z THROUGH 23/06z)...
VFR conditions prevail across west-central and southwest Florida
this evening. Earlier shower activity has weakened and shifted
north of the terminals. Winds will be light overnight...with thin
cloud cover...allowing for some patchy fog to develop over the
still saturated soils. KLAL/KPGD will see best chance of a period
of MVFR BR between 08-12Z. After any early fog lifts...mainly VFR
conditions expected for the Tuesday. A few showers are forecast
ahead of an approaching front, however, coverage will not be high,
and will decrease as one moves southward from the I-4 corridor.
Southwest winds 8-11kts during the day will shift NW and then
north in the wake of the front during the evening hours.

Winds through Tuesday morning hold south to southwesterly around
10 knots. A cold front will push through from northwest to
southeast Tuesday afternoon and evening shifting winds briefly to
a northwesterly direction and then northeasterly Tuesday night.
Winds pick up behind the front to between 15 and 20 knots with
rougher seas. Winds then shift more easterly for Thursday, but
remain elevated around 15 knots.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  88  68  82  69 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  89  74  87  73 /  10  10  30  10
GIF  90  69  83  69 /  20  10   0  10
SRQ  88  70  86  71 /  20  10  10  10
BKV  88  64  81  65 /  30  10   0   0
SPG  88  70  84  71 /  20  10  10  10


Gulf waters...None.


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