Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 150158
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
758 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.UPDATE...

Only a few minor updates needed this evening. Radar still
indicating perhaps an isolated rain or snow shower remains across
some central portions this evening. Lingered slight chance pops
through the remainder of the evening, with chances diminishing
quickly around or shortly after midnight. Little if any impacts
are expected from these showers. After these showers diminish, the
next thing to watch is perhaps the development of fog. As the
clipper system exits tonight a surface high will briefly diminish
winds, and perhaps cloud cover. This could provide for some areas
of fog later tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly across northern,
central, and some southwestern areas. Have expanded the mention
of patchy fog to account for this. Tuesday still appears to be a
mainly dry day with temperatures a touch warmer than today. Anglin

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the region
for Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for dry days and mild
temperatures to reside over the region. It turns windy and a bit
cooler for Thursday and Friday, along with a small chance for a
passing shower. There is a better chance for colder temperatures
and widespread snow this weekend, especially over Southwest MT.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0600 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019 (00Z TAF Period)

Shower activity will begin to diminish this evening across the
region. MVFR clouds may still linger across central and northern
portions through tonight, with mainly clear skies across the
south. Some sites could still see some fog activity or at least
IFR clouds later tonight into Tuesday morning. Have mention of fog
in the Helena Valley and Cut Bank areas, with VCFG or
lowering clouds at most other sites. Confidence is moderate at
this point, although high enough to add into the TAFs. Fog will
diminish by mid to late Tuesday morning. Lingering MVFR clouds
will give way to mainly clear skies and VFR conditions for the
remainder of Tuesday. Anglin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 544 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019/
Tonight through Friday...An upper level disturbance is exiting
Central MT this afternoon, thus expect the light rain showers
currently over Central MT to gradually end by early evening. Some
patchy fog could develop after Midnight, but kept the fog out of
the bigger cities for now. For Tuesday and Wednesday...it looks
dry and mild, with the warmest day expected on Wednesday. It turns
a bit cooler each day for Friday and Thursday, along with a chance
for a passing rain/snow shower.

Saturday through Monday...The forecast storm for this weekend
looks a bit stronger on the 12z runs today...allowing for the
potential of heavy snow along the divide and over portions of
Southwest MT. Thus expect adjustments over the next few days to
temperatures/snowfall amounts for Sat/Sun, especially over
Southwest MT and the Rocky Mountain Front. Generally cooler and
unsettled conditions continue into Monday, as an upper level trof
resides over the region. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  56  42  68 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  23  49  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  29  58  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  25  56  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  19  50  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  27  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  26  50  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  24  49  36  66 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.