Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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243
FXUS63 KUNR 190437
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1037 PM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019

An upper trough is crossing the Rockies, pushing some
clouds into the western Dakotas. Light rain showers continue to
diminish this afternoon. The surface low and cold front have shifted
into eastern SD, and northwesterly winds remain gusty across much of
the SD plains. Temperatures this afternoon are in the 40s and 50s.

Winds will diminish this evening, and temperatures will fall into
the 30s. The region will be between systems on Saturday, resulting
in a dry and less windy day. Under sunny skies, highs will be in the
50s to lower 60s.

Models continue to show a low sweeping across the region
Sunday/Monday. The GFS is stronger than the EC and NAM crossing SD,
but then the EC wraps up tighter over MN on Monday, bringing colder
air into eastern SD. Temperatures still look warm enough for mostly
rain over the plains, but the Black Hills could be cold enough for
some snow. The highest elevations could see several inches of
accumulation. The main concern still looks to be strong winds both
days, but models differ on strength: the GFS is showing 7 mb/3 hr
pressure rises across western SD by Sunday evening, while the NAM
has only 3 mb/3hr pressure rises. Will continue the trend of raising
winds in the forecast for now, but not as strong as the GFS.

A brief, weak warmup is in store for Tuesday, before the next couple
of waves arrive. Another cold front will start sliding across the
northern plains Tuesday night with the first wave, bringing a few
showers to the CWA. Then even colder air will sink into the region
Wednesday into Thursday with a stronger wave. The 12Z GFS and
Canadian have trended drier over our area, but the EC still brings a
broad area of precip over SD. With the colder air expected, this
could result in some snow; however, differences in models make
confidence in precipitation chances and especially snow amounts very
low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1033 PM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019

VFR conds will continue through the valid period of the terminal
forecast. Look for an increase in clouds aft 00z Sunday with the
approach of another storm system.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Hintz



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