Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
916 AM EST Thursday February 27 2020

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...

During the month of March, streamflows are forecast to be above normal
across most of the basin.  The exception is the Upper Wabash, Great Lakes
and Maumee where streamflows are forecast to be near normal.

.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...

Flood potential is expected to be above normal across most of the Ohio
Valley. The exception will be the Maumee, Upper Wabash and Great Lakes
drainages.

Drought is not expected to develop.

.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...

Across Middle Tennessee, Kentucky and  West Virginia,
5 to 10 inches of rain fell (150 to 300 percent of normal).
Across central Ohio, Indiana, western Pennsylvania and southwestern
New York 2 to 5 inches fell (100 to 150).  1 to 2 inches fell across
northern Ohio and northern Indiana (50 to 100 percent of normal.

https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

Generally, soil moistures are in the 90-99th percentile south of the Ohio River.
North of the Ohio River, soil moistures are in the 70-90th percentile.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

Streamflows are above normal to much above normal across the Ohio Valley
with pockets of near normal streamflows.

https://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR MARCH...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
Positive = Above Normal Precipitation

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
Neutral trending positive = Above Normal Precipitation

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
Negative = Above Normal Precipitation

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
Neutral = No Correlation

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...

Teleconnections are pointing to a wet March across the Ohio Valley.
Antecedent conditions are also conducive to flooding.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$




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