Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 202005
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

...Southern/Central New Mexico and adjacent portions of Southeast
Arizona and West Texas...

The primary large-scale fire weather threat area is forecast to
linger over portions of the southern High Plains through this
weekend, as cyclonic flow -- around a mid/upper-level trough --
remains entrenched over much of the western half of the United
States. While fuels across portions of the southern High Plains
generally remain seasonably marginal, further curing is possible
through this weekend as additional precipitation chances remain very
low.

...Day 3/Wednesday...
Strong mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast to continue over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday amidst a
critically dry air mass. While sustained surface winds may be bit
weaker than previous days -- albeit still at or above critical
thresholds -- RH values will also be lower. 70% probabilities for
Critical have been maintained where fuels are most receptive to
large-scale fires.

...Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday...
Fire weather conditions are expected to diminish somewhat on Day
3/Thursday into Day 5/Friday, as mid-level winds weaken over the
area. While elevated to locally critically conditions are possible,
critical fire weather probabilities have not been introduced as
widespread critical conditions currently appear unlikely.

...Day 6/Saturday - Day 7/Sunday...
Critical fire weather conditions may redevelop over the southern
High Plains this weekend, as stronger mid-level flow reemerges over
the area. However, decreasing predictability at this range coupled
with the somewhat marginal nature of fuels precludes the
introduction of Critical probabilities at this time.

..Elliott.. 05/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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