Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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796
FNUS28 KWNS 191903
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

A large mid-level trough will develop over the northeast CONUS later
this week. As the polar and subtropical jet phase to develop this
large trough, low-level cyclogenesis is expected with a
strengthening surface low moving up the Atlantic Coast Thursday
night and Friday. Dry and breezy conditions are possible across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Friday, but much of this area will
see significant rainfall on Thursday which should alleviate fire
weather concerns.

Elsewhere, a few mid-level jet streaks are expected to traverse the
Southwest into the southern High Plains late this week and into the
weekend. This may lead to elevated to possibly critical fire weather
conditions in some areas.

...D3/Thursday - D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains...
Occasional periods of enhanced mid-level flow and weak lee troughing
may lead to dry and breezy conditions in portions of the Southwest
and southern High Plains Thursday into the weekend. The best chance
for critical fire weather conditions appears to be on Sunday when a
surface cyclone develops in southeastern Colorado. However, despite
this developing cyclone, it is expected to be fairly weak and
therefore, the chance for widespread critical strength winds is
uncertain. In addition, model guidance indicates at least some
precipitation across much of this region which would limit fuel
receptiveness. Therefore, no critical probabilities have been drawn.

..Bentley.. 03/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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