Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 261643

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z


An isolated dry thunderstorm area has been introduced across much of
NM and far west TX as a shortwave trough moves over this region this
afternoon and mid-level moisture modestly increases. Fast mid-level
flow promoting quick storm motions, a very well-mixed boundary
layer, and total precipitable water values around 0.40-0.65 inch
will greatly limit the potential for wetting rainfall with any
thunderstorms that do form.

Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will also develop
this afternoon across parts of the Southwest and southern High
Plains. The best critical potential remains across parts of
southern/central NM and far west TX where sustained winds of 30-35
mph appear likely in combination with RH values of 7-15%. Only minor
changes have been made to the elevated/critical delineations across
these areas. See the previous discussion below for more information.

..Gleason.. 05/26/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019/

A mid-level impulse embedded within larger-scale cyclonic flow
(associated with a near stationary mid-level shortwave trough) is
poised to traverse the Four Corners region during the afternoon
hours. Over 50 knots of 500 mb flow will accompany this impulse as
it rides atop a deeply mixed boundary layer, where downward momentum
transport of the flow aloft may occur. Deep boundary layer mixing,
combined with isallobaric flow associated with a surface lee trough
fortified across the High Plains, will both induce very dry, windy
conditions across much of the Four Corners area, where conditions
will be favorable for fire spread.

Meanwhile, across the southeast CONUS, large scale ridging aloft,
with surface high pressure, will be the predominant weather pattern
throughout the day, with large-scale subsidence and relatively
hot/dry conditions in place.

...Southeast Arizona into southern/central New Mexico, far West
By peak afternoon heating/boundary layer mixing, widespread 20+ mph
sustained southwesterly surface winds amidst 10-20% RH will be
common across much of southeast Arizona into most of New Mexico and
far West Texas, where both elevated and critical delineations are in
place. Many places in central into southern New Mexico will likely
see sustained winds reach the 30-35 mph at times. Despite these
winds coinciding critically low RH, an extremely critical
delineation was withheld given the relatively modest receptiveness
of fuels to fire spread. Later in the evening, nocturnal cooling of
the boundary layer will result in decreasing wind speeds and
increased surface RH, tempering wildfire-spread potential.

...Far southeast Alabama into southern Georgia, far northern
Florida, far southwest South Carolina...
By mid afternoon, temperatures are expected to climb well into the
90s, with RH dropping below 35% in some locales. The region has been
relatively devoid of precipitation for at least the past week, and
with no rainfall forecast in the immediate future. These hot, dry
conditions will promote the continued curing of fuels. Elevated
delineations are currently being withheld given the lack of stronger
winds across the region, though 10-15 mph wind gusts associated with
sea breezes may potentially induce locally elevated conditions
during the afternoon hours.

...Please see for graphic product...

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