Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 200641

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z


An upper trough/low will continue to move slowly eastward across the
Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies on Day 2/Thursday. A
belt of strong mid-level west-southwesterly flow will remain over
much of southern AZ/NM through the period. A small area of
strong/gusty surface winds may overlap RH values below 20% across
parts of southeastern AZ and southwestern NM Thursday afternoon.
However, latest guidance shows a general lack of fuel receptiveness
across this region. Have therefore not introduced an elevated area.

A separate upper trough will move across the eastern CONUS through
the day, with enhanced mid-level westerly flow overspreading much of
the Southeast. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop
northeastward along/near the Mid-Atlantic Coast. A weak trailing
cold front should move southeastward over parts of the Carolinas and
GA through the period. There appears to be some potential for
surface winds up to 15 mph to overlap RH values of 25-35% across
parts of southern/eastern GA and northern FL Thursday afternoon,
which could result in locally elevated meteorological conditions.
For now, fuel dryness appears marginal to support large fire starts,
and the low-level flow also does not appear to be overly strong.
Have therefore opted to not include an elevated area across this
region at this time, although one may eventually need to be
introduced if forecast wind speeds strengthen any further.

..Gleason.. 03/20/2019

...Please see for graphic product...

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