Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 211938
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Big Woods RX Fire - Smoke Monitoring...VA DGIF
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
338 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on September 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure becomes anchored along or just off the
Carolina coast through this weekend. A weak cold front will
push across the area Monday night. Nighttime inversion may set up for
a few hours Sunday morning before sunrise, but should mix out by
around 13Z.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (25300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................28.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0
Temp............83  83
RH..............44  46
20 FT wind dir..S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   4
20 FT wind gust.6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 4.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   7
LVORI...........2   2
ADI.............29  27
Haines index....4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..27  25
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................21 decreasing to 3.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   3   3   4   5   6   8   10  13  13  12  12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............81  76  73  70  69  68  67  66  65  64  63  63
RH..............51  60  68  76  76  78  81  84  84  87  90  90
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2
20 FT wind gust.6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   6   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
LVORI...........2   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6
ADI.............21  2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19  13  9   6   4   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (48300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6 increasing to 45.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........11     9      7      9      14     17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............63     64     74     82     85     86
RH..............90     87     69     55     48     48
20 ft wind......S 3    S 3    S 3    S 4    S 6    S 7
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      6      10     12
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    2200   3600   4400   4400
Transport wind..S 6    S 6    S 6    S 7    SW 10  S 13
LVORI...........6      5      3      2      1      1
ADI.............3      6      15     25     40     49
Haines index....3      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1      1      10     22     40     48
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...ZIMMERMAN/FISHER
Requested by...Stephen Living
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1915746.1/AKQ
.DELDT 09/21/19
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL stephen.living@dgif.virginia.gov


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