Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FNUS74 KAMA 181155
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for Sewage Area RX...Borger Fire Dept
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
655 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on September 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Neither elevated nor critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
at the burn site through Thursday as minimum relative humidity
values are forecast to remain above 20 percent both today and
Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near or at the burn
site after 4 PM this afternoon, which may lead to gusty and
erratic winds. The threat for thunderstorms will increase Thursday
afternoon, which may also result in gusty and erratic winds near
or at the burn site.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1600, then 1-8 strikes.
Temperature.........68 at ignition...Max 97.
RH..................68 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 0-1500 ft AGL
                    increasing to 4000 ft AGL late in the morning,
                    then increasing to 7000 ft AGL early in the
                    afternoon increasing to 9500-11000 ft AGL early
                    in the afternoon increasing to 12000 ft AGL
                    decreasing to 10000 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest 15
                    to 22 mph late in the morning, then shifting to
                    the south 10 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /0 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair /28500
                    knot-ft/ increasing to excellent (68000
                    knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....                                   ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      2
Temp............68     74     85     92     96     92
RH..............68     57     39     29     24     28
20 ft wind......S 10   SW 12  SW 10  SW 9   S 9    S 9
20 ft wind gust.14     14     14     11     11     11
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    1.0    4.0    9.5    11     10
Transp wind dir.S      S      SW     SW     S      S
Transp wind spd.12     20     20     12     10     10
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/10000      17     68     95     96     91

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (20-30 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2200, then No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 68.
RH..................Max 81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL decreasing to 0-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 18 mph shifting to the south 14
                    to 20 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (43500-75700 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor to fair (0-23700 knot-ft) in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     10     10     0      0
LAL.............2      2      1      1      1      1
Temp............92     84     78     76     74     71
RH..............28     38     51     59     64     72
20 ft wind......S 10   S 10   S 12   S 10   S 9    S 6
20 ft wind gust.14     14     14     14     11     7
Mix hgt (kft)...8.0    4.0    0.1    0.5    0.5    0.5
Transp wind dir.S      S      SE     S      S      S
Transp wind spd.10     13     15     18     20     16
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100076     44     0      8      8      7

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 9-15 strikes.
Temperature.........Max 89.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 3000-4500 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon, then decreasing to
                    1000-2500 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-34100 knot-ft) increasing to
                    poor to good (12900-54000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     10     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      3      3
Temp............69     68     79     84     87     89
RH..............75     81     59     47     42     38
20 ft wind......S 7    S 8    S 9    S 9    S 10   SE 12
20 ft wind gust.8      9      11     11     14     14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    0.1    0.5    3.0    3.5    1.5
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.12     10     12     13     15     15
Haines index....3      3      3      3      2      2
VRate kt-ft/10000      0      5      34     44     20

$$
Forecaster...Andrade
Requested by...Archie Stone
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1915682.0/AMA
.DELDT 09/18/19


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