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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 192026
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for MIDDLE FIRE...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
226 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 MDT on September 19.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have tried to develop just to
the north of the burn area, but at this time are staying north.
Additional development is expected going into the evening as an
upper disturbance approaches from the southwest. Similar situation
for tomorrow with little change in temperatures or humidities.
Mixing heights may drop some tomorrow which will lower vent rates.
Drier air moves in for the weekend before an increasing chance for
storms early next week.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......9800-10300 ft.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (100800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........64     64
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20
LAL.............2      2
Temp............79     77
RH..............30     33
20 ft wind......E 7    SE 8
20 ft wind gust.10     12
Mix hgt (ft)....10300  5400
Transport wind..S 12   S 17
Haines index....3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..98     43
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   FAIR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (30-40 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms, mainly before 2400.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2400...then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 12 mph becoming southwest
                    3 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........77     77     77     35     35     35
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).40     40     30     20     10     10
LAL.............4      4      3      2      2      2
Temp............75     68     63     61     58     56
RH..............42     54     65     70     77     80
20 ft wind......SE 8   SW 9   SW 8   SW 7   SW 6   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.16     13     10     10     8      8
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......200-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2300-3900 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (47100 knot-ft) increasing to fair (53500
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........41        41        47        47
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      ISOLTD    ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      ISOLTD    ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         10        20
LAL.............1         1         2         2
Temp............55        66        77        80
RH..............83        56        39        32
20 FT wind......SW 7G10   SW 7G10   SW 8G11   SW 9G13
Mix hgt (ft)....200       1100      2300      3900
Transport wind..W 8       SW 16     SW 14     SW 15
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0         19        22        54
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      FAIR

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...KIMBERLY HINSHAW
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1915420.3/EPZ
.DELDT 09/19/19
.EMAIL NMADCz@FIRENET.GOV