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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 171753
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Nursery...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
1053 AM MST Mon Feb 17 2020

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 MST on February 17.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
West to northwest winds sustained around 6-8 mph with gusts up to 16 mph
starting early afternoon and lasting until around 5 pm. Temperatures stay
above normal today, reaching into the low 60s for a high. Dry air continues
today, with min RH values in the low 20s. More moisture moves in tomorrow
morning, as min RH values jump into the high 20s Tuesday, and low 30s by
Wednesday. Winds back easterly later Tuesday afternoon as a back door cold
front slowly moves through. No significant wind with this, the surface pressure
gradients are fairly loose. Temperatures slowly lower Tuesday through Friday.

No chances for precipitation until Friday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1900 ft AGL increasing to 2900-3700 ft AGL in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46200 knot-ft) increasing to good (70700
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........2      8      12     14
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............55     59     63     56
RH..............29     25     25     29
20 ft wind......W 9    W 10   W 12   W 13
20 ft wind gust.13     14     17     18
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   3200   3700   2900
Transport wind..W 15   W 21   W 22   W 18
Haines index....2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30     62     67     42
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   GOOD   FAIR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........15     18     11     8      7      8
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............50     44     42     41     35     33
RH..............37     47     50     52     57     57
20 ft wind......W 12   NW 8   NW 7   NW 8   NW 8   NW 8
20 ft wind gust.16     12     10     10     12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   BLW100 BLW100 100    100    100
Transport wind..W 15   W 7    NW 6   NW 7   NW 7   NW 6
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..27     1      0      0      0      0
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......0-600 ft AGL increasing to 4300-5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southwest 13
                    to 14 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (47800 knot-ft) increasing to fair (59200
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........12        17        22        28
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............37        47        55        57
RH..............61        47        32        28
20 FT wind......NW 7      NW 5G6    W 6       SW 8G10
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100    600       4600      5200
Transport wind..N 6       N 5       W 9       SW 14
Haines index....3         3         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0         5         34        59
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      FAIR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the around 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
South winds around 8 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Southeast winds around 6 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 30s.
Highs in the lower 50s. Southeast winds around 11 mph.

$$
Forecaster...DHUYVETTER
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2002402.0/EPZ
.DELDT 02/17/20
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov