Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FNUS75 KGJT 231055
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Boggy Draw Unit 19...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
455 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 MDT on September 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Southwest flow will increase this afternoon along
with high cloud cover ahead of a low pressure trough that will
drop south through Nevada into southern California today into
Tuesday. This increase in winds aloft should help smoke dispersal
and result in better mixing today compared to yesterday as a
temperature of 60 degrees is all that is needed to break morning
inversions. The forecast high today exceeds that. As this low
drops southward, some isolated storms are possible late this
afternoon into early evening across extreme southeast Utah and
southwest Colorado closer to the New Mexico border. There is a
slight chance of a storm over the burn site today but thinking
most activity will remain south of the burn area. Gusty outflow
winds may be more of a concern than any wetting rain. Dry and warm
conditions continue Tuesday as the low moves further to the
southwest of the area, along with lighter winds.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms in the late afternoon.
Max temperature.....65-70 F.
Min humidity........17-22%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 3 to 7 MPH until 1000, then
                    becoming southwest 8 to 12 MPH with gusts
                    15 to 20 MPH in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair, increasing to good after 1200.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1 until 1700, then 2.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL increasing to 8900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 11 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%) then becoming partly
                    cloudy (30-40%). Isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Min temperature.....37-42 F.
Max humidity........72-77%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 12 MPH in the early evening,
                    shifting to the northeast 3 to 7 MPH overnight.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft)
                    by 1900.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................2 until 2300, then 1.
Mixing height.......8200 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10%).
Max temperature.....69-74 F.
Min humidity........19-24%.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 3 to 7 MPH until 1000, then
                    becoming west-northwest 5 to 10 MPH in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (21000 knot-ft) increasing to good in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL increasing to 8500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 10 MPH.

$$
Forecaster...Matt Aleksa
Requested by...Tracy Milakovic
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1915878.2/GJT
.DELDT 09/23/19
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL tracy.milakovic@usda.gov


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