Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 181454
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Bearcat Fields...united States Forest Service
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
954 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on September 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

Please contact our office at (501) 834-0308 and ask for the fire weather forecaster if
you have any questions or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure in place aloft over the state with surface high
pressure centered northeast of the areas. This will provide
southeasterly winds to the area. Some gusts could be seen through
the early afternoon hours. Rain chances will begin to increase
slightly Thursday afternoon.

Be safe in the heat this afternoon!


.TODAY...

Max temperature.....83 at ignition...Max 89.
Min humidity........57 percent at ignition...Min 44 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    late in the morning, then becoming light late
                    in the afternoon.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southeast at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southeast around 5 mph late in the morning,
                    then becoming light late in the afternoon.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Dispersion..........3 increasing to 25 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 10755 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 8900 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............83  85  87  88  89  89  88
RH..............57  51  48  45  44  44  45
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.7   8   8   8   7   6   6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.10  9   8   8   7   7   6
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

Min temperature.....Min 70.
Max humidity........Max 81 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....Light winds.
Stability class.....E.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Dispersion..........13 early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............86  84  81  79  77  76  75  74  74  73  72  71
RH..............48  53  56  60  64  66  69  71  71  73  76  79
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2
20 FT wind gust.6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   1
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0

.THURSDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 87.
Min humidity........Min 48 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph late
                    in the morning.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph late
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Dispersion..........5 increasing to 30 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 10070 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 8200 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............70  70  72  74  77  80  83  85  86  87  87  85
RH..............81  78  79  76  69  62  55  50  50  48  48  51
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   3   5   6   6   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.            4   4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.1   1   3   8   10  10  10  9   9   10  10  9
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20

$$
Forecaster...H Cross
Requested by...Kory Garrie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1915695.0/LZK
.DELDT 09/18/19
.EMAIL kory.garrie@usda.gov


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