Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FNUS74 KLZK 220725
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Mull RX...NPS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
125 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2020

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

Please contact our office at (501) 834-0308 and ask for the fire weather forecaster if
you have any questions or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure over the state this morning will shift east
for this afternoon...with southerly winds returning.
However...winds will remain fairly light at less than 10 mph. Dry
air will remain in place however.


.REST OF TODAY...

Max temperature.....30 at ignition...Max 54.
Min humidity........60 percent at ignition...Min 27 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds south at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Dispersion..........7 increasing to 22 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire
                    growth at ignition...max 4.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3519 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2700 ft AGL.

TIME (CST)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............30  33  37  41  45  49  51  52  53  51  49
RH..............60  54  48  41  35  31  29  28  27  30  34
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   5   5   6   6   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.4   4   5   6   6                       7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   8   9   10  10  10  12  12  12  10  8
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Min temperature.....Min 38.
Max humidity........Max 74 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....South around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south around 5
                    mph after midnight becoming light.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south around 5
                    mph after midnight becoming light.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Dispersion..........3 early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 1030 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).200 ft AGL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  44  43  41  41  40  40  40  40  40  40  39
RH..............39  43  47  51  54  55  58  59  61  63  65  67
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   3   3   3   3   5   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.6   6   5   5   5   5   6   5   5   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10

.SUNDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 48.
Min humidity........Min 63 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Transport winds.....Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of showers in
                    the morning, then showers likely in the
                    afternoon.
Dispersion..........9.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 1581 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 800 ft AGL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............39  40  41  42  43  44  45  45  45  46  46  46
RH..............69  71  74  77  77  78  78  79  80  82  82  83
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   6
20 FT wind gust.4   4   5   5   5   5   5       6   6   6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.5   7   9   10  10  9   8   8   8   8   9   12
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  70  70  70  70  70  70

$$
Forecaster...W Gilmore
Requested by...Dwight Newman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2002688.0/LZK
.DELDT 02/22/20
.EMAIL denewman@nps.gov


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