Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FNUS73 KMPX 161506
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Wildlife Festival...FWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1006 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on September 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
South winds will have increased to 10-15 mph by ignition time,
with gusts of 20-25 mph expected through the afternoon. Wind
direction looks to remain steady around 160-170 degrees. Temperatures
will warm into the mid- 80s this afternoon, but increasing dew
points will limit min- RH values to around 60%.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Temperature.........80 at ignition...Max 84.
RH..................67 percent at ignition...Min 61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1800-2600
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 25 mph.
Mixing winds........South 24 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /38600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /57100 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........6 or high at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............80  83  84  84  82  80
RH..............67  61  61  61  65  67
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   11  11  11  10  9
20 FT wind gust.12  19  19  18  17  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.24  25  25  25  25  25
Mixing wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixing wind spd.24  25  25  25  25  25
Haines index....6   6   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100039  45  51  57  50  42

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Temperature.........Min 68.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......800-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 25 mph.
Mixing winds........South 17 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (13100-35000 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............78     74     71     70     69     69
RH..............71     82     90     93     100    100
20 ft wind......S 8    S 7    S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6
20 ft wind gust.14     14     14     12     11     12
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   1100   900    800    800    900
Transport wind..S 25   S 23   S 20   S 18   S 17   S 17
Mixing wind.....S 25   S 23   S 20   S 18   S 17   S 17
Haines index....5      6      6      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100035     22     15     14     13     14

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms. Chance of precipitation 40
                    percent.
Temperature.........Max 83.
RH..................Min 67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph
                    early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900-2700 ft AGL increasing to 2000-2900 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 29 mph increasing to around 30 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........South 20 to 29 mph increasing to around 30 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to excellent (14400-63700 knot-ft)
                    increasing to good to excellent (50800-72700
                    knot-ft) early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 OR or moderate to or high.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............68     72     77     81     83     82
RH..............100    90     76     69     67     69
20 ft wind......S 6    S 8    S 10   S 11   S 11   S 11
20 ft wind gust.14     16     18     21     23     22
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1400   1900   2400   2700   2400
Transport wind..S 20   S 25   S 29   S 29   S 29   S 30
Mixing wind.....S 20   S 25   S 29   S 29   S 29   S 30
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100014     30     45     59     68     62

$$
Forecaster...AHASIC
Requested by...Kris Larson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1915554.0/MPX
.EMAIL kris_larson@fws.gov



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