Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FNUS73 KMQT 181035
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Pine Martin Pile RX...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
635 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 EDT on September 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Excellent RH recoveries were observed this morning near
the burn site. Satellite trends suggest there may also be some low clouds
and/or fog in the area. With mid and upper-level clouds exiting to
the east, expect these lower clouds to linger through the mid-morning
hours, but should eventually dissipate as drier air pushes east.
Increased sunshine today will allow for mixing to deepen, and gusty
south winds to develop. South winds off of Lake Michigan, coupled
with subtle upslope flow towards the burn site should help keep
minimum RHs in the 50% range this afternoon. If mixing grows deeper,
it is possible RHs could drop another 5 to 10% lower then currently
forecast.

Tonight, expect south winds to remain breezy as a low-level jet lifts
across the area. Breezy winds will limit overnight recoveries to
around 70%, until precipitation looks to arrive mainly after
midnight. Confidence isn`t high in storm coverage, but if precipitation
can hold together the burn site could pick up at least 0.25 inches
of rain late tonight into Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........76 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................51 percent at ignition...Min 51 percent.
33-foot winds.......Winds south at 17 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 12 to 17 mph with gusts to around
                    30 mph.
20-foot winds.......South winds 10 to 14 mph with gusts to around
                    24 mph.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1300-2300
                    ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Excellent (643) at ignition. Max...excellent
                    (643).
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky (%).........12  16  21  23  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1
Temp............76  76  74  71  68
RH..............51  51  53  59  67
33 ft wind dir..S   S   S   S   S
33 ft wind spd..17  17  16  16  16
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..14  14  13  13  13
Wind gust.......24  24  24  24  24
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6
VIndx kt-ft/100.643 612 540 478 409

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. A
                    chance of rain showers after midnight. A chance
                    of thunderstorms after midnight. Rain showers
                    likely late. Chance of precipitation 70
                    percent.
LAL.................1 until 2400, then 2 until 0200, then 3 until
                    0500, then 2.
Temperature.........Min 64.
RH..................Max 91 percent.
33-foot winds.......South winds 11 to 16 mph with gusts to around
                    29 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
20-foot winds.......South winds 9 to 13 mph with gusts to around 23
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1000-1100 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (274-377).
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.18 inches.

TIME (EDT)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM
Sky (%).........28  35  41  48  54  61  67  75  83  91  87  84
Weather cov.....                SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   2   2   2
Temp............66  65  65  66  66  67  67  67  67  67  66  65
RH..............74  75  75  73  73  75  76  76  78  80  84  88
33 ft wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
33 ft wind spd..15  15  15  15  15  15  17  17  17  15  15  15
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..12  12  12  12  12  12  14  14  14  12  12  12
Wind gust.......23  23  23  18  18  18  22  22  22  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
Haines index....6   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
VIndx kt-ft/100.346 329 335 359 357 366 375 376 377 374 328 274

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers and
                    thunderstorms. Chance of precipitation 40
                    percent.
LAL.................2 until 1900, then 3.
Temperature.........Max 75.
RH..................Min 70 percent.
33-foot winds.......South winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-2100 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (103-340).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.06 inches.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
Sky (%).........80     79     76     70     79     83
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      2
Temp............64     69     73     75     75     73
RH..............91     82     75     71     70     74
33 ft wind......S 10   S 10   SW 11  S 10   S 10   S 8
20 ft wind......S 8    S 8    SW 9   S 8    S 8    S 6
Wind gust.......11     11     11     10     10     8
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1000   1300   1900   2100   1600
Haines index....4      4      4      3      3      3
VIndx kt-ft/100.238    261    321    317    279    161

$$
Forecaster...Ritzman
Requested by...Jay Peterman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1915631.1/MQT
.DELDT 09/18/19


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