Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 181228
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Stinkwater Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Riverton WY
628 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 MDT on September 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures reaching the mid 50s today and tomorrow will bring
humidity levels down to 25 to 30 percent each afternoon. Clear
skies today will transition to a wetter period for the latter half
of the week and into the weekend. Snow is expected Thursday night
through Saturday, with light accumulation possible.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Straub

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....52-55.
Min humidity........23-26 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 13 to 17 mph with gusts to
                    around 26 mph.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest 20 to 25 mph.
LAL.................1.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 21 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to excellent increasing to excellent late
                    in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   2   2   2   2   3   4   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............36  40  43  46  48  49  49  49  48
RH..............56  48  41  34  31  29  30  31  33
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..13  13  14  15  16  16  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.24  25  26  29  30  30  31  32  31
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.1 1.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 7.5 7.5 7.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.21  21  21  24  24  24  25  25  25
Haines index....2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100020  20  20  107 107 107 165 165 165

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min temperature.....36-39.
Max humidity........49-52 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 8 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph
                    decreasing to 21 mph early in the evening.
Ridge top winds.....South 15 to 20 mph.
LAL.................1.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL until 2400, then 200 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent decreasing to poor in the late
                    evening and overnight.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........7   7   7   8   11  14  18  21  23  24  24  18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............46  42  42  40  39  39  39  40  41  41  41  46
RH..............37  48  46  48  50  51  48  47  43  42  43  36
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..15  12  10  9   9   10  8   8   8   9   8   11
20 FT wind gust.28  22  18  17  18  18  16  16  16  16  15  21
Mix hgt (kft)...7.3 7.3 7.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.21  21  21  16  16  16  15  15  15  16  16  16
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/1000132 132 132 1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent) then becoming partly
                    cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....52-55.
Min humidity........28-31 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 11 to 12 mph with gusts to around
                    17 mph increasing to 11 to 19 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....South around 20 mph increasing to around 30
                    mph.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......200 FT AGL until 0900, then 8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 18 mph shifting to the east
                    late in the morning, then increasing to south
                    28 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12  2   1   5   9   38  32  41  59  68  71  78
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............46  46  45  45  48  50  52  53  53  52  52  49
RH..............36  36  38  40  36  32  33  31  38  38  36  48
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..12  11  11  12  12  11  11  15  17  19  19  17
20 FT wind gust.21  20  20  21  21  20  21  28  33  37  37  33
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.8 8.8 8.8
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  E   E   E   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  18  18  18  18  18  30  30  30  28  28  28
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10001   1   1   8   8   8   207 207 207 212 212 212

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
then snow showers and showers likely overnight. Lows in the lower
30s. West winds around 12 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Colder. Snow showers and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid
20s. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds around 13 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Snow showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds around
17 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs
in the mid 40s. Southwest winds around 16 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Straub
Requested by...Dru Phillips
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1915641.0/RIW
.DELDT 09/18/19
.EMAIL dru.phillips@usda.gov


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