


Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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Issued by NWS
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341 FOUS30 KWBC 132011 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 411 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Day 1 Valid 16Z Sun Jul 13 2025 - 12Z Mon Jul 14 2025 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... 20Z Update... Risk areas shifted south from the Concho Valley per latest guidance and observations. 16Z Update... ...Southern Plains into Eastern Arkansas... The ongoing convective complex over Central Texas continues to show weakening trends overall from a very active overnight/morning. A large MCV is noted between San Angelo and Killeen which should continue to allow some development/expansion southeast toward San Antonio and on the west side north of Del Rio through the early afternoon. However, the reduction of the LLJ through this morning should maintain lower rain rates than were experienced this morning. The question is what happens tonight with convection. 12Z CAMs are overall not very concerning, but the RAP presence of 2.25" PW pooling south of the current MCV which becomes the inflow for the LLJ tonight means anything that does develop in central TX should have healthy inflow for additional heavy rains. Therefore, will maintain a Moderate Risk, but with a bit more of an east-west orientation and a little south than current. This is mainly along the SJT/EWX boundary including a fair portion of the Texas Hill Country including Kerr Co. Farther northeast/downstream of the existing MCV and east of a stationary front, elevated moisture and instability will continue to allow some organization over northeast TX, eastern OK, western AR where a Slight Risk remains in effect. ...New Mexico... The westward periphery of the PW plume emerging from the Gulf is spreading into New Mexico, spreading PWs above 1" (+1 sigma) into the High Plains and into the terrain of the central part of the state. This PW will overlap with a ribbon of MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing during peak heating over the higher terrain. These storms will initially move slowly on 0-6km mean winds of just 5 kts, but the presence of 20-25 kts of bulk shear will help drive modest organization as storms come off the terrain and drift southward on Corfidi vectors around 10 kts. With rain rates above 1"/hr likely, this could result in instances of flash flooding, especially over sensitive terrain features, urban areas, or burn scars. A Slight Risk is maintained over the Sacramento into north-central NM terrain. The Marginal Risk is expanded to southeast AZ, more of south-central CO, and more of eastern NM. ...Missouri and Illinois... Minor expansion of the Slight Risk over northeast MO and south- central IL. Ongoing activity is present along a stationary front. MPD 0669 is forthcoming with further information. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... 16Z Update...Minor expansion east with Slight Risk over/toward the I-95 corridor per 12Z CAM consensus. Mid-level ridge gradually pulsing northward from the Gulf Coast will interact with a broad and slow moving trough advecting across the Great Lakes to produce pinched SWly flow across much of the eastern CONUS. This will manifest as impressive thermodynamics being drawn northward from the Mid-Atlantic into interior portions of the Northeast. These thermodynamics will be characterized by PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches (90th - 99th percentile according to NAEFS) and collocated MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg to produce an environment favorable for heavy rain. Into this environment, a cold front, pushed slowly eastward by the mid-level trough to the west, will combine with slow height falls to drive pronounced ascent, creating scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the eastern Ohio Valley into Northern New England. These storms will contain heavy rain rates that have a 30-50% chance of exceeding 1"/hr with brief 2+"/hr rates also possible. Although bulk shear is progged to be minimal such that convection will generally remain of the pulse variety, brief training as 0-6 km mean winds aligns to the front will allow for some longer duration of this heavy rainfall in a few areas, leading to HREF and REFS 24-hr probabilities that peak above 70% for 3". While it is difficult even at this time range to identify the areas most at-risk to flash flooding due to uncertainty in exact convective placement, 0-10cm soil moisture is above the 90th percentile according to NASA SPoRT from central VA through Upstate NY, which is also collocated with the locally higher ensemble probabilities. This suggests that the inherited SLGT risk is warranted, and only adjusted cosmetically for new guidance, although there is a signal in the guidance for some locally heavier rainfall across the Finger Lakes region of NY due to repeating/backbuilding cells which could result in some locally more substantial impacts. ...Florida... 16Z Update... Expansion west of Marginal Risk per 12Z CAM consensus. Slow moving 500mb trough east of Florida will strengthen gradually as it drifts W/SW today. The accompanying vorticity maxima will provide some locally enhanced forcing to the eastern side of FL, while the entire peninsula remains sandwiched between this and a ridge to the west, producing northerly flow across the area. As the vort swings westward, some locally enhanced diffluence will develop aloft as well, and as this occurs in the presence of PWs above 2 inches collocated with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, widespread convection with heavy rain will result. CAMs suggest storms will fire on the E/NE side of the peninsula and then drift SW, with some locally enhanced organization possible into clusters thanks to 20-30 kts of bulk shear. With rain rates progged by the HREF to have a 30-50% chance of exceeding 2"/hr, this could result in total rainfall of 3-4", locally higher, as suggested by 24- HREF/REFS probabilities and PMM. Where this rain occurs over more urban areas, local flash flooding could result. ...Louisiana... Added a Marginal Risk for central LA as outer bands from a tropical wave over the central Gulf continues to produce development in a moist/unstable environment. This includes Baton Rouge and Lafayette. Jackson Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 14 2025 - 12Z Tue Jul 15 2025 ..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...Mid-Atlantic Through Northeast... There is an overnight threat of thunderstorms tracking across southern portions of the Midwest that could still be going over eastern KY/southern OH early Monday. The Marginal Risk was expanded east through this area to account for this threat. Then, diurnally driven thunderstorms develop ahead of a slow moving cold front over the northern/central Appalachians and track east to the I-95 Northeast urban corridor through the evening. The front is slow to advance because the parent upper low remains stationary into midweek. Broad return flow ahead of the front (SW at 10-15 kts) draws a ribbon of PWs around 2 inches (above the 90th percentile according to NAEFS), sufficient instability (MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg into New England), deep warm cloud depths (above 15,000 ft) and light mean layer flow to support efficient and heavy rain. Rain rates exceeding 2"/hr have a 40-60% probability from the 12Z HREF, especially in the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance today increased the likelihood of heavy rain up through New England, so the Slight Risk was expanded through New Hampshire in coordination with WFOs GYX, ALY, BGM, and PHI. ...Florida... A westward-advancing and deepening mid-level wave approaches the FL peninsula on Monday, providing widespread increasing ascent. In addition to the height falls/PVA accompanying this trough, modest upper diffluence will develop as northerly flow continues, enhancing deep layer lift. This impressive and amplifying ascent will impinge into intensifying thermodynamics with PWs surging above 2.25 inches, or above the 90th percentile according to NAEFS. There continues to be some evolutionary discrepancies among the various models, but in general the setup will be favorable for widespread thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, especially during peak heating when MUCAPE climbs above 2000 J/kg. The heaviest rainfall now looks to develop across central and southern portions of the peninsula. With rainfall rates likely eclipsing 2"/hr, some bulk shear 20-30 kts to help organized convection into clusters, and chaotic/weak storm motions, total rainfall could exceed 3" in places. The inherited SLGT risk was focused just a little. ...Desert Southwest through Texas, the Ozarks and Mid-Mississippi Valley... MCVs and impulses will track along the existing stationary front over the Mid-Miss Valley down to Texas. A very favorable environment remains to support heavy rainfall with PW nearly 2 inches into the Ozarks and above 1" as far as southern Arizona thanks to persistent moist advection out of the Gulf leading to PW anomalies reaching above the 90th percentile locally from West TX into NM and near the Ozarks. These are the locations that may have slightly higher potential for excessive rainfall on Monday, with slow moving storms over West Texas/New Mexico (0-6km mean winds 5 kts or less) and organized convection on 20-30 kts of bulk shear from OK into MO/AR. As of now the Marginal was expanded more over southern Texas given the threat for further overnight activity from central TX. ...Northern Plains... Marginal Risk along Canadian border from MT to MN retained. Potent but positively tilted shortwave will dig out of British Columbia and emerge into a belt of pinched westerlies aligned to the Canada/United States border. This will help elongate a cold front as it drops southward into the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains, producing locally enhanced ascent across the area. A piece of this vorticity lobe will swing rapidly eastward and interact with the low-level baroclinic zone, which will intensify due to warm advection on an 850mb LLJ surging to 30 kts Monday evening up the Plains, drawing thermodynamics characterized by PWs of 1-1.25 inches and MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg northward. This will support scattered thunderstorms Monday night, and although cells should remain progressive on 0-6km mean winds of 20-25 kts, aligned Corfidi vectors to the mean wind and the front suggests training which could produce 1-2" of rainfall and local FFG exceedance. Jackson/Weiss Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 15 2025 - 12Z Wed Jul 16 2025 ..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...Florida... The mid-level wave reaches the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday providing ascent with PWs of 2-2.25 inches collocated with tall skinny cape with MUCAPE above 1000 J/kg. There could also be a surface low (please see NHC guidance) which would additionally enhance ascent. As winds behind the wave turn back to the S/SE across the peninsula, it will likely result in weakly convergent boundaries upon which thunderstorms will blossom and track NW with 2+"/hr rates. Where these cells exhibit even short- term training, especially atop urban areas or across soils moistened from rainfall between now and then, instances of flash flooding could result from 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. The Slight Risk for the southern half of the Peninsula remains. ...Northern Rockies through the Upper Midwest... A defined shortwave trough shifts east across MT Tuesday. This will push a cold front, initially aligned generally west-to- east, to become more SW to NE as it approaches the Upper Midwest the latter half of the period. The accompanying ascent (driven by low- level convergence, PVA, and jet- level diffluence) will produce widespread convection on Tuesday areas with PWs above the 90th percentile according to NAEFS. This will support rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr, with training of echoes likely due to boundary parallel mean flow. The greatest potential for heavy rainfall continues to be focused from the eastern Dakotas through northern MN with additional maxes south/southwest across eastern SD to central Nebraska where backbuilding/regenerating cells appear likely. The Slight Risk was expanded over central MN to align with 12Z consensus (that includes the 12Z RRFS and Canadian Regional). ...Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... A generally moist and unstable environment will remain across much of the eastern CONUS Tuesday morning as broad ridging expands from the Atlantic. A lingering surface front over southern New England retains an excessive rainfall threat from overnight convection. So a Marginal risk was raised up through Boston. 850mb flow around the offshore ridge will become increasingly S/SE, surging a ribbon of PWs above 2" from the Gulf Coast through the Mid-Atlantic. Although forcing for ascent will be modest, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, many of which will have 1-2"/hr rain rates despite their pulse nature. Therefore, the Marginal Risk was maintained for the Mid-Atlantic down to Georgia. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Continued risk for MCV coming out from central TX activity looks to push through MO/IL on Tuesday. Elevated moisture and pivoting forcing from associated impulses raise a threat for excessive rain. A Marginal Risk is raised for much of IL, eastern MO into central IN. ...Southwest... Elevated moisture with light steering flow should allow diurnal convection to be locally excessive over the Big Bend of Texas and southeast Arizona. Targeted Marginal Risks were raised for both areas. Jackson/Weiss Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt