Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 120641 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 241 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Broad low pressure will linger over the Carolinas through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 940 PM Tuesday... The local radar has become nearly clear in the last hour. Have continued with a slight chance for a shower out in the Triad, but otherwise think the rest of the night should generally be dry. Similar to previous late nights/early mornings, expect patchy fog and stratus development around sunrise. Lows will be around 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 247 PM Tuesday... Little change in the pattern and the large scale features, with CAMs indicating convective coverage much like today. That suggests shower/tstms coverage favoring areas mainly to our west and to our east earlier in the day, with coverage shifting into our CWA (particularly the western and eastern thirds of our CWA) as the afternoon progresses. Similar temps with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... An extended period of wet weather likely through the weekend. The flow aloft will be weakly cyclonic between a high centered over the Southwest US and another over Bermuda. An area of low pressure in the mid-levels will sit over the southern Appalachians over the weekend before slowly lifting east-northeast early next week. The upper trough to the northwest will amplify as it migrates eastward into the mid-Atlantic region through the weekend. At the surface, an inverted trough will remain over the Appalachians, extending from a low over northern MS/AL through the end of the week, shifting into central NC over the weekend as the low lifts through the Carolinas. While the trough/low should shift off the Carolina coast on Monday, another low/trough will develop over the Deep South and Appalachians on Tuesday. Expect near normal temperatures with highs consistently in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Min RH values only drop into the mid 60s to mid 70s during the day, with PWATs in the 1.8" to 2.2" range through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are expected through the extended period, with the highest chances during the aft/eve, lowest but still lingering chances into the overnight/early morning. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM Wednesday... A persistence forecast will be followed, given little change in the weather pattern over cntl NC in recent days. Specifically, areas of stratus and fog this morning will give way to scattered to locally numerous, slow-moving showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Outlook: A persistent regime of late night-morning stratus and fog and diurnally-maximized showers and storms, though with an above average chance of some lingering overnight owing to the presence of continued low pressure aloft, will continue through the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...MWS

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