Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 081224 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 825 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will cross central North Carolina today, reinforcing the cooler than average airmass over the region. High pressure will quickly move across the region behind this front and will shift offshore early Sunday. A warming trend will begin Sunday after the high moves offshore.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 825 AM Saturday... Minor tweaks this morning, mainly to account for spotty sprinkles across the northern portion of the forecast area. The incoming weak cold front currently sits over WV and along the TN/KY border, with a prefrontal trough extending down through the foothills/Piedmont interface. The brief low level light WSW flow ahead of these features along with a diving mid level shear axis has helped support a few sprinkles across the N this morning, although this should steadily dwindle this morning as the forcing for ascent shifts to our E with low level flow swinging around to WNW, prompting downslope drying, with further drying taking place by early afternoon through the 850-700 mb depth. The sct-bkn clouds across the N this morning will delay heating a bit, and observed thicknesses at GSO this morning are well below normal at 1350 m, with hi res progs indicating minor daytime recovery north and more so south. Thus, expect highs near 70 to the lower 70s N/NW ranging to the mid to upper 70s S/SE with increasing sunshine. -GIH Earlier discussion from 333 AM: A long wave trough currently over the East has several embedded short wave troughs passing through it. One moved offshore last evening and subsequent subsidence behind it is proving clear skies across central NC attm. A secondary trough, along with its sfc cold front, is moving across the Ohio Valley attm and will cross central NC during the daytime hours today. This system will be moisture-starved once it crosses the mountains, so other than some mid clouds drifting across our area, look for dry weather today and a good amount of sunshine. Skies will be continue to be partly cloudy tonight as additional mid clouds (the clouds currently drifting across the mid Miss Valley) move across our area from the west. The airmass that has moved in behind yesterday`s system, which will be re-enforced later today behind the secondary front, will feature 2m temps approx 5-10 deg below normal. Highs today will be in the lower 70s, and lows tonight once again in the 40s! Finally, current VWP shows 20+kt of wind just off the sfc, and forecast sounding continue to show daytime BL winds in the 20-30kt range. Thus once mixing commences, we should begin to see some gusty w-nw sfc winds (frequent gusts of 20-25+ mph) develop and continue through much of the daytime hours today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 333 AM Saturday... High pressure will move across the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas as mid- level flow backs to westerly. As the high moves offshore by mid- day, look for return flow to set up and result in WAA to return, and rather quickly. Meanwhile, the next cold front will be crossing the Miss Valley during the daytime, and will begin crossing the mountains by Sunday night. So while the daytime Sunday should be dry and quite sunny, Sunday night we`ll see clouds quickly increasing with PoPs back in the forecast across our western zones just prior to sunrise Monday associated with moist convergent prefrontal low level flow. With aforementioned return flow, highs Sunday will rebound to the lower 80s. Lows Sunday night in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 333 AM Saturday... The region should be well established in the warm sector by the time Monday morning arrives with strong pre-frontal southwesterly flow across the area. There may be a stray shower during the pre-dawn hours but the main show is expected to take place later in the day. Nearly all available guidance shows a cold front sweeping through the area at some point during the day Monday (closer to 00Z) and with modest instability/shear and moisture advection in place, showers and storms continue to look likely. Post-frontal cool/dry advection should lead to a nice day on Tuesday with below normal temperatures and dry conditions. Much of the same to start the day Wednesday but a southern stream shortwave will bring moisture back into the area late in the day. Just how quickly this moisture plume arrives is still uncertain given the spread in the GEFS and EC ensemble guidance, but it seems plausible that there will be an increased chance of showers once again late in the week. At the same time, precip arriving on Thursday will likely lead to an in-situ CAD setup with some spots struggling to see temps above the low 60s Thursday afternoon. Below normal temperatures look to persist into Friday as well along with decreasing rain chances as the southern stream shortwave trough moves offshore. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 606 AM Saturday... Through 12Z Sunday: VFR conditions expected today with any cigs being aoa 10k ft agl. Otherwise, WNW winds will become gusty later this morning and afternoon with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 kt. After 12Z Sunday: VFR conditions and gusty daytime winds expected once again Sunday. The next cold front will slowly move south across our area, resulting in the chance for sub-VFR flt conditions Monday and perhaps into Tuesday. VFR conditions will then return to central NC by mid-week with high pressure building back over the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 333 AM Saturday... Update: will coordinate again with NCFS later this morning for any needed updates to fire weather headlines. Otherwise, no changes since yesterday`s fire weather discussion. As of 405 PM Friday... Meteorological parameters on Saturday afternoon will be critical or nearly so, when minimum RH values in the upper teens to around 25% are expected, along with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph - isolated ones to 35 mph. After coordination with NCFS and taking into account their fuel moisture expertise, an Increased Fire Danger Statement was deemed appropriate for all of cntl NC. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...Hartfield/np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...DL AVIATION...np FIRE WEATHER...np/MWS

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