-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
133
FXUS62 KRAH 031750
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday. An area
of low pressure off the Southeast coast could move into the area
Sunday, bringing a return to wet weather Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...

* Isolated showers/storms possible this afternoon for the eastern
  Piedmont into the Coastal Plain and southern Sandhills.

Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough axis extending south from
its parent low over central Quebec with a shear axis and narrow
ribbon of synoptic lift pushing east through the lower Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic. East of a surface moisture axis, surface dew
points in the low/mid 70s has already contributed to 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE with diurnal heating. As this shear axis spreads into the
southern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon, Hi-res guidance has been
consistent in showing at least shallow development of showers and
perhaps an isolated storm or two developing from south-central VA
down towards the Triangle. Moderate instability will be in place by
this afternoon and should be enough to overcome the drier air above
700mb, but hi-res guidance has been inconsistent on the depth this
convection will reach. If deeper convection were to develop, shear
profiles are predominantly backed through the profile, which should
help limit shower/storm coverage to mostly isolated nature.

Given moderate DCAPE and modest low-level lapse rates expected as
diurnal heating continues, an isolated strong downburst can`t be
ruled out, but will be entirely dependent on if deep convection can
develop. Any convection will gradually dissipate with loss of
diurnal heating and likely dissipate between 8-10 PM. The lingering
low level moisture will result in another night of patchy fog
potential, mainly in the Coastal Plain into the Sandhills. Overnight
lows will remain mild and settle in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...

* Mostly quiet weather with above normal highs resulting in heat
  indices in the 90s. Greatest storm chances will be across the
  Coastal Plain into the Sandhills.

A negatively-tilted trough axis positioned over the Northeast Fri
morning with a mid-level ridge building into the Midwest will direct
mainly northerly flow aloft over central NC. Confluence on the
backside of the trough will assist surface high pressure to spill
over the northern Mid-Atlantic through Sat evening. This should
direct northeasterly flow down through central NC and with diurnal
mixing should help mix dew points into the 60s. Some lingering dew
points in the upper 60s to low 70s will contribute to moderate
instability Fri afternoon/evening and the development of isolated
showers/storms. These will likely be hit-or-miss variety, but some
guidance suggest some clustering possible which would increase the
potential coverage. Otherwise, conditions will remain dry.

It is important to note that although temperatures will only be
slightly above normal during the afternoon hours, this will be
temperatures in the shade. Temperatures in the direct sunlight will
feel noticeably worse. Combined with heat index of mid/upper 90s,
heat related illness will still be possible especially among heat-
sensitive individuals and anyone who spends prolonged periods of
time in direct sunlight without adequate hydration. Temperatures
should quickly cool into the upper 70s to around 80 by sunset and
settle in the mid 60s to low 70s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 150 PM Thursday...

* Mostly dry conditions expected Saturday, with isolated to
  scattered showers/storms possible in the southeast.

* A tropical development is possible in the Atlantic this weekend.
  Regardless of development, rain chances will increase Sunday and
  Monday.

* Afternoon/diurnal shower chances return Tuesday through Thursday.

Saturday, the region will stay under the influence of high pressure
and upper level ridging. This should keep the day mostly dry.
However, showers and embedded storms may be possible in the
southeast portions of the CWA Saturday evening if moisture is faster
to return to the region ahead of the potential tropical system that
may develop off the coast. This can be seen in the ECMWF, which
brings moisture into the region faster than other models. Regardless
of if a tropical system is able to develop, rain chances will
increase Sunday and Monday due to this potential tropical system and
increased moisture. Currently the only hazards expected locally with
this system are locally heavy rain and a few stronger storms.
Tuesday through Thursday, we return to a period of diurnally induced
showers and storms possible each afternoon and evening.

Temperatures should be within 5 degrees of normal each day in the
long term. Saturday should have maximum temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s. Sunday should cool down slightly, into the upper
80s, due to increased cloud cover and rain chances. Monday through
Thursday should warm into the low to mid 90s each day. Heat indices
may return to the low 100s Tuesday through Thursday. Lows should
generally be in the upper 60s to low-to-mid 70s each night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions have returned to central NC with low-VFR cumulus this
afternoon. There is a low chance for an isolated shower or storm at
RDU and RWI this afternoon into the early evening. Confidence is too
low to include in the 18z TAFs at this time. Amendments may be
needed once confidence in convective placement/coverage increases.
Any showers will gradually dissipate through 00z. Lingering low-
level moisture may result in patchy fog in the Coastal Plain and
Sandhills (RWI/FAY) early Fri morning.

After 12Z Friday: Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through
Sat, with a return to diurnally maximized showers/storms Sun into
early next week with a possible low pressure system.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Swiggett/Kren