Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190236 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1035 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A surface front and mid level trough will push off the Carolina coast overnight. High pressure will build in from the northwest Wednesday, and linger over the region through late week, bringing dry and warm conditions.
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&& .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
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As of 1035 PM Tuesday... Near term forecast in track with just minor tweaks to sky and PoPs required. A mid level trough and its associated sfc trough were rotating through the coastal Plain counties late this evening. The highest threat for a shower will be confined to areas east of our region. NW flow behind the exiting system along with subsidence will lead to clearing skies overnight. The drier air will also permit sfc dewpoints to lower into the low-mid 60s by morning in the Piedmont, and the upper 60s elsewhere. With the clearing skies and relatively light winds, patchy fog will likely form toward daybreak at a few spots.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Tuesday... A quiet, dry, and warm period will give a weather break for clean up purposes across the region. Plenty of sunshine expected as the mid/upper ridge builds toward NC from the Southern Plains Wednesday through Thursday. The mid/upper level ridge is forecast to be over the southeastern states in the vicinity of SC on Thursday. The surface high is expected to extend down the eastern seaboard from the north as well. It will be cooler at night and less humid during the day Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will be in the 60s with highs both days in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 PM Tuesday... The upper-air pattern at the start of the long term period features an unusually strong 594dm upper-level ridge centered across the Carolinas on Thursday night that persists into early Saturday. This will result in near to above normal temperatures with mainly dry conditions into the first part of the weekend. The ridge will shift south and east late Saturday into Sunday allowing a cold front to move southeast into the Virginias during the day Saturday and then limp into North Carolina and then stall on Monday into Tuesday. This will result in slight chance and chance PoPs of showers and thunderstorms over the period. At this point were not expecting a lot of rain, with the precipitation scattered in nature although confidence is limited on the exact evolution of the front and the amount of precipitation. Temperatures over the weekend will be dictated by the position of the front. Highs should range in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday and then cool with highs around 80 near the VA border and the mid 80s across the southeast. temperatures will cool a little bit more into early next week with highs in the lower and mid 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 815 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions should dominate the forecast over the next 24 hours as high pressure settles over the area. The one exception may be KRWI, which has a tendency to see reduced visbys under mostly clear skies behind a frontal boundary. Confidence isn`t high here, but remains high elsewhere. High pressure at the surface and aloft will build over NC through Wednesday, then hold firm through late week, with the next chance of sub-VFR conditions arriving over the weekend in the west. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Blaes AVIATION...JJM/Badgett

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