National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 220751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
351 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm southwesterly flow will prevail across the area into tonight.
A cold front will move through the area on Monday, bringing
widespread showers with much cooler temperatures for the
early/middle part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 215 AM Sunday...

One more hot and humid day this cycle...

Central NC will be in the warm sector out ahead of the approaching
longwave trough and cold front today. A surface trough over the far
western Piedmont will lead to scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon. In addition, another focus for convection
initiation may be over the Sandhills region with strong
differential heating laying out a boundary there by early to mid
afternoon. Our region is again in a Marginal Risk (level 1) for
isolated damaging wind and hail possible. MLCapes will be high,
but other parameters are weak. Just about anyone can see a
thunderstorm this afternoon or early evening, but the POP is only
30-50 percent (highest NW and Sandhills) for any one point. Highs
today will be hot for late May, but a bit lower than the last few
days. Expect mostly mid 80s to lower 90s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 AM Sunday...

Turning much cooler and wetter during Monday into Monday night
with developing CAD Monday night into Tuesday...

Warm and humid air represented by anomalous PW`s near 1.75 inches
(above 95th percentile) are expected to be in place over central NC
ahead of the southward moving cold front Monday. The cold front
should be near the NC/VA border at 12z/Monday then gradually move
south deep into the region by late Monday and Monday night. As the
mid/upper level trough approaches from the west, a deep ENE flow
will develop just north of the surface boundary Monday afternoon
into the evening. MLCapes should reach 500-1000 j/kg along and south
of the boundary, with elevated Capes north of the boundary. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop and track across the
region Monday into Monday night. As the high pressure (1030 mb+)
builds into our region just behind the front - expect falling
temperatures with the showers across the NW-N Piedmont during the
day. There should be quite a temperature gradient from 50s/60s north
around 00z/Tue ranging into the 70s/80s far SE-S. We are not
anticipating flash flooding at this time even with the near record
PW for late May given the latest Sport Soil Moisture levels that are
very dry. There may be some minor urban and small stream flooding
with any training cells. QFP on the order of 0.50 to 1 inch areal
average expected, with locally 2 inches.

The front will shift on into far northern SC by 12z Tuesday. Showers
are expected to taper off to a chance on Monday night with
temperatures falling into the 50s north and lower to mid 60s
southeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 345 AM Sunday...

A warm season CAD airmass will continue to keep temps cool and skies
cloudy Tuesday into Wednesday, before a warm front lifts northward
through the area Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of the next
system. However, with the lingering boundary stalling across the
region, coupled with high moisture content air expect we`ll see some
showers and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. High temps will be
tricky during this time, with highs Tuesday will likely to be stuck
in the 60s in the heart of the CAD (northwest Piedmont), with some
upper 70s to near 80 possible across the far south/southeast. With
the potential for a warm front to being lifting back northward
through the area on Wednesday, high temps will have a large bust
potential. For now will go with highs in the lower to mid 70s
northwest to the lower to mid 80s southeast. Low during this time
frame (Wednesday morning) are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

The deep trough located to the west will finally shift eastward by
late week, helping to drive a cold front into or through the area by
the end of the week and increasing chances for showers and storms.
Ahead of the front high temps will warm back into the 80s for
Thursday, with lows in the 60s. Drier weather is expected to return
behind the front by Saturday, with high temps in the 80s and lows in
the 50s and 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 AM Sunday...

There is a good chance of stratus development between 08z and 10z
this morning (IFR), lasting through 13-15z before lifting out. The
Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected. MVFR conditions
with scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon between 20z
and 02z/tonight. Another round of LIFR to IFR CIGS are expected
tonight between 08z and 14z/Monday.

Outlook: Monday will see the passage of a cold front with widespread
sub-VFR weather with showers and lower CIGS expected. This could
linger into Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Badgett