Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220751 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 351 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Warm southwesterly flow will prevail across the area into tonight. A cold front will move through the area on Monday, bringing widespread showers with much cooler temperatures for the early/middle part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM Sunday... One more hot and humid day this cycle... Central NC will be in the warm sector out ahead of the approaching longwave trough and cold front today. A surface trough over the far western Piedmont will lead to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. In addition, another focus for convection initiation may be over the Sandhills region with strong differential heating laying out a boundary there by early to mid afternoon. Our region is again in a Marginal Risk (level 1) for isolated damaging wind and hail possible. MLCapes will be high, but other parameters are weak. Just about anyone can see a thunderstorm this afternoon or early evening, but the POP is only 30-50 percent (highest NW and Sandhills) for any one point. Highs today will be hot for late May, but a bit lower than the last few days. Expect mostly mid 80s to lower 90s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 AM Sunday... Turning much cooler and wetter during Monday into Monday night with developing CAD Monday night into Tuesday... Warm and humid air represented by anomalous PW`s near 1.75 inches (above 95th percentile) are expected to be in place over central NC ahead of the southward moving cold front Monday. The cold front should be near the NC/VA border at 12z/Monday then gradually move south deep into the region by late Monday and Monday night. As the mid/upper level trough approaches from the west, a deep ENE flow will develop just north of the surface boundary Monday afternoon into the evening. MLCapes should reach 500-1000 j/kg along and south of the boundary, with elevated Capes north of the boundary. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and track across the region Monday into Monday night. As the high pressure (1030 mb+) builds into our region just behind the front - expect falling temperatures with the showers across the NW-N Piedmont during the day. There should be quite a temperature gradient from 50s/60s north around 00z/Tue ranging into the 70s/80s far SE-S. We are not anticipating flash flooding at this time even with the near record PW for late May given the latest Sport Soil Moisture levels that are very dry. There may be some minor urban and small stream flooding with any training cells. QFP on the order of 0.50 to 1 inch areal average expected, with locally 2 inches. The front will shift on into far northern SC by 12z Tuesday. Showers are expected to taper off to a chance on Monday night with temperatures falling into the 50s north and lower to mid 60s southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 345 AM Sunday... A warm season CAD airmass will continue to keep temps cool and skies cloudy Tuesday into Wednesday, before a warm front lifts northward through the area Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of the next system. However, with the lingering boundary stalling across the region, coupled with high moisture content air expect we`ll see some showers and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. High temps will be tricky during this time, with highs Tuesday will likely to be stuck in the 60s in the heart of the CAD (northwest Piedmont), with some upper 70s to near 80 possible across the far south/southeast. With the potential for a warm front to being lifting back northward through the area on Wednesday, high temps will have a large bust potential. For now will go with highs in the lower to mid 70s northwest to the lower to mid 80s southeast. Low during this time frame (Wednesday morning) are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The deep trough located to the west will finally shift eastward by late week, helping to drive a cold front into or through the area by the end of the week and increasing chances for showers and storms. Ahead of the front high temps will warm back into the 80s for Thursday, with lows in the 60s. Drier weather is expected to return behind the front by Saturday, with high temps in the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 110 AM Sunday... There is a good chance of stratus development between 08z and 10z this morning (IFR), lasting through 13-15z before lifting out. The Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected. MVFR conditions with scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon between 20z and 02z/tonight. Another round of LIFR to IFR CIGS are expected tonight between 08z and 14z/Monday. Outlook: Monday will see the passage of a cold front with widespread sub-VFR weather with showers and lower CIGS expected. This could linger into Tuesday and Wednesday. && && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett

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