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000
FXUS62 KRAH 120641
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
241 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad low pressure will linger over the Carolinas through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 940 PM Tuesday...

The local radar has become nearly clear in the last hour. Have
continued with a slight chance for a shower out in the Triad, but
otherwise think the rest of the night should generally be dry.
Similar to previous late nights/early mornings, expect patchy fog
and stratus development around sunrise. Lows will be around 70
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 247 PM Tuesday...

Little change in the pattern and the large scale features, with CAMs
indicating convective coverage much like today.   That suggests
shower/tstms coverage favoring areas mainly to our west and to our
east earlier in the day, with coverage shifting into our CWA
(particularly the western and eastern thirds of our CWA) as the
afternoon progresses.  Similar temps with highs in the upper 80s and
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

An extended period of wet weather likely through the weekend. The
flow aloft will be weakly cyclonic between a high centered over the
Southwest US and another over Bermuda. An area of low pressure in
the mid-levels will sit over the southern Appalachians over the
weekend before slowly lifting east-northeast early next week. The
upper trough to the northwest will amplify as it migrates eastward
into the mid-Atlantic region through the weekend. At the surface, an
inverted trough will remain over the Appalachians, extending from a
low over northern MS/AL through the end of the week, shifting into
central NC over the weekend as the low lifts through the Carolinas.
While the trough/low should shift off the Carolina coast on Monday,
another low/trough will develop over the Deep South and Appalachians
on Tuesday. Expect near normal temperatures with highs consistently
in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Min RH
values only drop into the mid 60s to mid 70s during the day, with
PWATs in the 1.8" to 2.2" range through the weekend. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the extended period, with the
highest chances during the aft/eve, lowest but still lingering
chances into the overnight/early morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...

A persistence forecast will be followed, given little change in the
weather pattern over cntl NC in recent days. Specifically, areas of
stratus and fog this morning will give way to scattered to locally
numerous, slow-moving showers and storms this afternoon and evening.

Outlook: A persistent regime of late night-morning stratus and fog
and diurnally-maximized showers and storms, though with an above
average chance of some lingering overnight owing to the presence of
continued low pressure aloft, will continue through the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS