Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 271451 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC Issued by National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1051 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure over the northern US along with a lingering low pressure offshore will lead to persistent cloudy and cool conditions through at least Saturday. High pressure will settle into the region late weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1045 AM Wednesday... For the near term update this morning, the cool and mostly cloudy conditions persist as low level moisture interacts with the strong classical CAD wedge. Have tweaked some temps down a tad and any slight breaks in the stratus shouldn`t do much for a diurnal heating component given this setup. The main deeper layer moisture axis and associated precip should stay mainly SE of the CWA so have kept pops dry but there could be a few stray obs of light rain or drizzle. Previous discussion follows... As of 148 AM Wednesday... Low overcast with a cool NE breeze today. Strong high pressure over eastern Canada will continue to provide a moist NE flow off the Atlantic throughout central NC as it extends deep into the SE states through tonight. A low overcast is expected to persist through the day. There may be some light, patchy drizzle at times especially in the Triad region. Highs will be kept down by the NE breeze and cloudiness. Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s across the Piedmont, with lower 70s in the SE. The overcast skies will continue tonight. Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 227 AM Wednesday... Continued cloudy and rather cool and breezy through Thursday. Strong surface ridging will continue to extend into the Carolinas through Thursday night. This occurs as a positively tilted mid/upper trough moves through the Ohio River Valley toward the Appalachians. As the upper trough approaches, an inverted surface trough is forecast to develop near the coast. This will keep the rain chances confined to the coast. There will be an increase in some mid/upper level moisture, but the strong ridge axis is expected to keep any precipitation limited to spotty drizzle. Low overcast and a NE flow is expected to continue. This will again limit highs to the 60s/lower 70s SE. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 AM Wednesday... Dry weather is expected for the extended, with temperatures slowly moderating above normal early next week. Little has changed in the extended part of the forecast. If anything, the forecast has continued to trend drier, with somewhat more seasonal temperatures for the weekend. The shortwave trough over northern IL Wed will be located near the lower Great Lakes Fri morning. This trough is still forecast to track offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Sat, then slowly track ESE over the Atlantic over the weekend into early next week. To the west, a 591 dm ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley will expand northward into the Mid-Mississippi/TN/OH valleys Sat into Tue, setting up an Omega blocking pattern with troughing to our east and over the Rockies and Intermountain West. The NE flow due to a surface high extending down from the NE US will lose its influence by early next week. This should favor less low clouds for the latter part of the period, along with temperatures rising from near normal in the mid 70s to near 80 Fri-Sun into the lower 80s Mon-Tue. An offshore surface low tied to the aforementioned mid-level trough and the surface high to our north will promote some occasional gusty winds at times Sat-Mon, especially over the Coastal Plain, with gusts of 15-25 mph during the daytime. As for precipitation chances for the extended, the trend the last 3 days has been for a drier pattern, with the better moisture and lift remaining offshore of the Carolinas. While we certainly cannot rule out some stray drizzle or light rain over the Coastal Plain Sat/Sun, most areas are expected to remain dry. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 640 AM Wednesday... 24 hour TAF period: IFR to LIFR conditions are expected through around 15z with low CIGS. These CIGS may lift a bit, into the MVFR category between 15z and 21z. However, CIGS will again lower tonight back to IFR conditions. VSBYS should be VFR for the most part, with some patchy drizzle with MVFR VSBYS, especially around KINT and KGSO. Outlook: A persistence pattern will continue as north to northeast low-level flow will bring a threat for sub-VFR conditions through the forecast period, particularly overnight into the early afternoon hours. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...PWB/AB SHORT TERM...PWB LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...PWB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.