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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 191350
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
950 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will cross central NC this morning. Gusty
winds can be expected today. High pressure will build over the
region tonight and Friday, with lighter winds and much cooler
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Thursday...

Surface cold front is just now moving through the Triad. This timing
is a good 4 to 6 hours slower than what the models were showing
yesterday. Given the later/delayed fropa, daytime highs will be a
good 3 to 5 degrees warmer than previously forecast, especially east
from the Triangle eastward. Expect highs to range from upper
60s/lower 70s NW to upper 70s/near 80 southeast. Additionally, based
on upstream observations across the NC foothills, WNWLY wind gusts
of 20 to 25 kts are occurring almost immediately behind the front.


Previous discussion issued at 322 AM Thursday...
Breezy southwest winds will become windy west to northwest winds
behind a cold frontal passage this morning. The front should pass
through the region by mid-morning in the Piedmont, then reach the
Fayetteville and Goldsboro areas by noon. So, winds will be the
story of the day. Expect SW winds 10-20 mph, shift to the WNW at 15-
25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. This will fall just under the wind
advisory criteria. Temperatures will start the day much warmer than
guidance and forecast, which is common out ahead of a cold front
approaching late at night. Such is the case now. We will have to
raise temperatures to those more in line (but a few degrees lower)
than the warmest MOS guidance available, which is the GFS MOS. The
NAM/EC appear much too cool, by 5-10 degrees in the east. Expect
highs of 75-80 east, and upper 60s to mid 70s west. Temperatures
will begin to fall in the NW Piedmont mid afternoon, as very strong
CAA begins.

This leads to tonight. Frost Advisory for much of central NC, except
the SE.

Strong CAA early will end quickly as winds die off between 200 am
and 500 am. Some models indicated a couple decoupling later tonight.
It appears that there will be a rapid temperature fall just after
the winds die off toward dawn. This may be allow temperatures to
fall into the 33-36 range in the Advisory area. Scattered frost will
be possible in low lying areas. Tender plants may need protection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...

Big story here is that another Frost Advisory will likely be needed,
especially in the northern zones Friday night. Lows again in the mid
30s in these areas. Lows ranging into the upper 30s to near 40 SE.
Sunny, dry, Friday with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Chilly north
winds to 15 mph Friday, decreasing to nil Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...

Surface high pressure will extend into the area from the north and
northeast through the weekend, with dry weather expected as weak s/w
ridging builds into and over the area. Temps will generally run
below normal over the weekend, with highs generally in the 60s and
lows generally in the 40s.

Meanwhile, a mid/upper level area of low pressure will approach the
region from the west over the weekend and move into the TN Valley
and Southeast U.S. by early next week, helping to spread precip into
central NC by early to mid next week, with a damming air mass
developing. However, timing differences with regard to when the
precip will move into the area still exists. Regardless, we should
see some rain early to mid next week, with below normal high temps
as the main surface low is expected to pass to the south of central
NC. Thus, central NC will remain on the cool side of this system,
with the best chance of any severe weather suppressed to the south
of area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Thursday...

24-Hour TAF Period: SW winds will increase to 15-20 knots with
gusts to 30 knots today. Winds will shift to the WNW with gusts to
30-35kt this afternoon. Winds will decrease tonight, to less than
10 knots after sunset. VFR conditions expected.

Looking ahead: Expect VFR conditions to persist into the weekend.
The next threat for significant weather is expected early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory tonight from 400 AM through 900 AM Friday
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>076.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL/Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Badgett