Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250043 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 825 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move east cross North Carolina late Monday into Monday night, drawing a backdoor cold front southward through the region and ushering in colder temperatures for mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 835 PM Sunday... An area of mid and high clouds currently moving across the area coupled with a southerly to southwesterly breeze has allowed temps to remain in the lower to mid 60s as of 8 PM this evening. This area of cloud cover is expected to shift to the east late this evening/early Monday morning, though additional mid and high clouds will likely move into the area shortly thereafter. In addition we may see a brief period of low stratus develop across western portions of the area by around daybreak as low level moisture increases via southerly flow around high pressure offshore, though dry conditions area expected to hold overnight. Low temps are generally expected to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with a few mid 40s possible if we clear off for long enough overnight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Sunday... A cloudy Monday, with a chance of showers - then showers becoming likely in the afternoon. The mid/upper level shortwave trough moving ESE through the Tennessee Valley late tonight will approach the region late Monday. The associated surface wave and cold front will be relatively slow reaching the region late Monday, should end up crossing central NC Monday night. It is late Monday and Monday night when the best lift and moisture convergence arrive. Although central NC will be in the warm sector preceding the arrival of the front, only marginal MLCapes are forecast for general thunderstorm activity. We currently have "isolated" or "slight chance" of thunderstorms in the zone forecasts to go along with the showers. Sensible weather should include breezy SW winds at 15-20 mph and highs in the 70s, except 65-69 NW (where the showers start earlier). There may be some light sprinkles or areas of light showers with very low QPF during the morning, then the main band of showers should arrive mid to late afternoon in the NW, and late afternoon into the evening elsewhere. After the wave of low pressure moves east of the region, drag the cold front through from the north Monday evening. As this occurs, models suggest periods of light rain overnight, then the rain gradually will taper to some drizzle overnight. CAA will drop lows in the 40s except 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday... A risk of more frost and potentially freezing overnight temperatures mid-week. Then spring-like temperatures arrive Fri. through next weekend. Any lingering light rain/drizzle along with the low stratus should clear gradually on Tuesday. CAA from the cold high pressure to the north will bring much colder weather by Tuesday night. Highs should only be in the 50s, with some lower 60s SE. Tuesday night... Much colder weather will arrive, but the winds may stay up enough to keep a widespread frost or freeze in the critical SE zones (where the Frost/Freezing program - growing season for the spring is underway). Low confidence in the exact lows for Tuesday night, especially in the SE where the breezes may linger. Higher confidence in the NW, where less pressure gradient should lead to a quicker reduction of wind. For now, lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s NW-N ranging to the mid 30s SE will be forecast. Wednesday through Thursday night... Both Wednesday night and Thursday night should be cold with frost/freeze potential, especially in the climatologically favored areas west of I-95. The only processes that may keep it just above a killing freeze/frost in the SE are associated with the potential of a low pressure off the SE coast of SC/GA. If this low is closer to SE NC, then some cloudiness/increased breezes may keep temperatures just above critical levels. Elsewhere, the cold high pressure over the NE states will extend into western NC. Several cold nights with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s appear likely. Highs Thursday should be only in the upper 50s north to mid 60s SE. Springtime warmth really arrives Friday into next weekend as strong ridging develops over the SE states. Highs will rebound into the 70s Friday and into the 70s to some lower 80s possible over the Sandhills Saturday. Lows will come up to between 45 and 55, as well. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 815 PM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are generally expected to continue this evening into Monday morning. However, moisture return around offshore high pressure may lead to a brief period of some low stratus at KGSO/KINT near daybreak at around 1 kft or so. Otherwise, periods of generally mid and high cloud will traverse the area this evening into Monday morning. An area of low pressure will approach the area from the west on Monday with showers and a few isolated storms possible during the afternoon, with sub-VFR conditions possible with any showers/storms. As the system approaches, southwesterly winds will increase during the late morning into the afternoon, with perhaps a few gusts of up to 20 to 25 mph. Outlook: Scattered to numerous showers/isolated storms are expected Monday evening, with associated sub-VFR conditions possible. IFR/LIFR conditions are possible Mon night as the low passes through and drags a cold front SE through the area, producing chilly winds from the NE into Tue morning. VFR conditions will return Tue afternoon, lasting through mid to late week as high pressure builds in from the N. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/Badgett NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett/BSD AVIATION...BSD/Badgett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.