115
FXUS62 KRAH 171925
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly high pressure will build into the region tonight. The high
pressure will shift offshore Tuesday and Wednesday with a quick warm
up expected. Another cold front will move across the region on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Monday...

* Clear and cold tonight, with lows mainly in the mid 30s. A few of
  the usual cooler spots could dip to or below 32 degrees.

As of 2 PM, the surface low was analyzed offshore of the Outer
Banks, with the tight pressure gradient lingering over the area.
Some scattered showers and isolated thunder continue beneath the mid-
level vort max moving across the area this afternoon. These showers
should continue ewd and out of central NC late this aft/early this
eve as the mid/upper trough finally moves across. As the low moves
away from the NC coast this eve/tonight, the pressure gradient will
begin to relax, especially west, and cool, dry air should filter
sewd across the area. Skies should quickly clear as the showers move
out and the low moves away. Although there may be some continued
stirring throughout the night, skies will be clear and with low-
level thicknesses around 1330-1335m, lows are expected to drop into
the mid 30s. In some of the more sheltered, usually cooler spots,
lows could dip to around/below 32 degrees early Tue morn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM Monday...

Mid-level ridging extending north from the Gulf will amplify in
response to a strengthening shortwave trough over the Intermountain
West on Tuesday which becomes a closed low over KS/NE on Tuesday
night. Meanwhile associated surface ridging from high pressure over
the eastern Gulf will slowly track east across NC. This pattern will
bring sunny skies and tranquil weather to central NC on Tuesday,
along with much warmer temperatures as 1000-850 mb thicknesses rise
20-30 m compared to today. Similar to the previous forecast, went 2-
3 degrees above NBM for Tuesday`s forecast highs, which range from
66F to 74F (around 5-10 degrees above normal), coolest in the far
east which will hold onto N/NW low-level flow for the longest.
Meanwhile western areas will be under more influence from westerly
downslope flow, which will have a warming and drying effect. Dew
points in the W and NW will be as low as the mid-to-upper-20s, with
lower-to-mid-30s elsewhere.

Very light to calm winds and mostly clear skies will prevail on
Tuesday night, with just a few high clouds possibly spilling over
the ridge from the aforementioned low over the Central Plains.
Decent radiational cooling conditions will help drop temperatures
into the upper-30s to lower-40s.

&&.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM Monday...

Upper pattern through the extended: Mid-level ridging will briefly
amplify up the eastern seaboard on Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, flow
turns swly upstream of an approaching upper trough which will move
across our area Thursday night into Friday. Ridging will follow
Friday into Saturday, ahead of a weak short-wave that will move
across central NC Saturday into Sunday. Yet another potent trough
will then approach and push across the southeast early next week.

Precipitation: Wednesday will remain dry given low PWAT and
generally wly flow aloft. By Thursday, as the flow turns more swly,
we`ll start to see some anomalous PWAT move into our area. Ensembles
generally suggest decent probabilities for measurable rain with this
system Thursday into Friday. However, despite good upper forcing
potential, ensembles are still not super impressed wrt to QPF (the
95th percentile generally only spits out a few tenths to maybe a
half inch up across our far northeast). Also, as of now, severe
weather parameters appear limited with this system despite the
strong kinematics (sfc dew points only reach the mid 50s and
associated instability is lacking at this juncture in the guidance).
Dry weather will return Friday with nwly flow aloft. Models are
hinting at perhaps another weak short-wave possibly generating
precipitation Saturday into Sunday, but the overall moisture appears
limited with this wave and thus will not carry any mentionable POPs
during this period.

Beyond this weekend, there is a signal for another potentially
potent system sometime early next week. The CSU ML Severe Weather
product does highlight small probabilities over our area during this
period. In addition, the SPC Day 7 probability forecast highlights a
15% chance for severe weather upstream over the deep south. They
further mention there is a possibility of this convection continuing
eastward with time.  Still a while away, but worth noting there is a
potential signal.

Temperatures: Except for Wednesday afternoon when ridging aloft
peaks and high temps reach the mid to upper 70s, the extended period
should be relatively cool with highs generally near 70.  A post-
frontal cooler day may be possible on Friday with current highs
forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: Some MVFR cigs linger at KRWI, with low-end VFR
at KRDU and KFAY. Scattered showers and isolated thunder also
persist, but should slowly progress ewd and out of the area through
this evening, with cigs rapidly improving in the wake of the
showers. High confidence VFR conditions will prevail after 00Z this
evening through the end of the TAF period. Gusty nwly winds should
persist through sunset, with gusts largely abating, while sustained
winds should slowly decrease through tonight. Some additional gusts
into the teens will be possible at KRWI Tue morn, but should
begin to relax around 18Z Tue.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Wed night. The next
chance for showers and sub-VFR conditions will be with the next cold
front passage Thu. Ahead of the front, a strengthening LLJ could
result in some LLWS Wed night, and strong gusty winds Thu. Some
lingering breezy/gusty conditions are possible Thu night/Fri. VFR
conditions should then prevail through Fri night, with yet another
chance for precipitation Sat/Sat night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC/Badgett
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...KC