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000
FXUS62 KRAH 071903
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
301 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through central NC this evening. High
pressure will settle over the mid-Mississippi Valley through the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 203 PM Wednesday...

A cool and stable pool has developed over the Northern Foothills
into the Northwest Piedmont from Mount Airy to Greensboro and
Burlington where light rain has been adding up. Winston-Salem was
closing in on 0.50 of an inch and Greensboro nearing 0.25 of an
inch. This was more than enough to cool the column with surface
temperatures in the lower to mid 60s (not exactly a pool day in
the northwest and north-central part of NC). Extensive cloudiness in
the WNW flow aloft extended from KY across NE TN and over northern
NC, with rain along and east of a short wave located over NW NC with
another upstream over KY. Quite a gradient in rainfall, clouds, and
temperatures this afternoon from NW to S across the state. 50s were
observed in the NW with mid 80s in the SE.

Very little has changed since the morning update with the
disturbances in the WNW flow aloft to track across central and
eastern NC this afternoon/evening. It appears the latest HRRR and
operational models have backed off a bit on QPF with the light rain
spreading ESE across the Piedmont. Most of it had fallen by 200 PM,
with the additional rainfall expected to be a tenth of an inch or
less. Areas that have heated into the 80s south of the cool pool
will have a chance of a shower or storm, but low level convergence
is lacking given the flow had turned to the NW already. It appears
the higher chance will continue to be south of our region. We will
still have a chance of rain north, showers south until the cold
front to our north and the last of the upper level energy passes
this evening. Otherwise, clearing and cooler with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s. Fog is most likely where 0.1 or greater rain dampens
the ground (NW-NE Piedmont).

Previous discussion as of 1040 AM Wednesday...

Clouds continue to increase from the NW across northern and central
NC, with partly sunny skies across southern NC. Rain has been
developing over the NW Piedmont as a large area of rain approaches
SW VA and NW NC from KY. Areas of smoke and haze continue over
the region with the rain in the Triad beginning to clear out some
of the smoke. The temperatures ranged from the lower 60s in the
Triad into the upper 70s over the southern Piedmont and
Sandhills. The latest hi-res guidance supports the current
conditions with rain developing over the northern part of NC
and spreading SE into the central Piedmont. There may be a break in
the rain/showers early afternoon, before the HRRR indicated the
potential for additional showers late afternoon into the evening
over central NC. The threat of thunderstorms is quite low with the
lack of low level convergence. There is a chance of showers/iso
thunderstorms, mainly in the areas across far southern and
southeastern NC where heating will lead to highs in the 80s and
MLCapes around 1000 j/kg later this afternoon. The showers/rain will
end tonight with clearing skies late. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 203 PM Wednesday...

Strong subsidence and deep layer drying with PWATs falling to 0.5 to
0.75 and high pressure building in, including a reinforcing cold
front dropping south from the northern Mid-Atlantic, should lead to
mostly sunny skies and dry conditions returning Thursday.

Highs will range from mid 70s to lower 80s (around 5 degrees below
normal).

Clear skies and surface conditions going calm should allow lows to
fall into the low/mid 50s, with typical cooler spots over the
Piedmont falling into the upper 40s (around 10 degrees below normal).

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 301 PM Wednesday...

Upper pattern through the extended: The anomalous and persistent
upper trough will finally pull off into the Atlantic through
Saturday evening. Brief upper ridging will follow before a southern
stream short wave combines with an anomalous upper low over the
Midwest to promote unsettled weather early Monday through Wednesday.

Friday/Saturday: Under nwly flow aloft, sfc high pressure will ease
into central NC Friday through Saturday promoting dry and sunny
conditions (PWAT drops to ~50% below normal). Daytime highs on
Friday will be a bit cooler than normal in the upper 70s to lower
80s. A bit warmer temps in the lower to mid 80s are then expected on
Saturday. Overnight lows will hover in the lower 60s Saturday night.

Sunday through Wednesday: The aforementioned sfc high will move
offshore overnight into Sunday morning turning sfc flow esely.
Aloft, zonal flow early on will turn more swly as the short wave
ejects into the deep south.  Latest guidance has slowed down the
arrival of rain associated with this system, trending towards a
drier Sunday. In fact, the last few runs of the deterministic GFS
don`t introduce any rain in our area until ~12Z Monday. Ensemble
probabilities for measurable rainfall have also trended towards a
later arrival compared to recent days. As such, have slowed down the
arrival of POPs some on Sunday.

Monday still appears to be the wettest day in the extended as
anomalous low-level moisture (PWAT of 1.75 to 2 in; ~120 % of
normal) surges across central NC. Initially isentropic-driven rain
(with embedded showers) should increase from west to east starting
early Sunday morning.  Coverage and intensity could then increase as
models are generally depicting the arrival of ~500 to 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and increasing divergence aloft Monday afternoon. If this
materializes, then enhanced rainfall rates and embedded storms
appear possible. However, bulk-shear is somewhat limited at this
time (~25 to 35 kts), and thus, not expecting much in terms of
severe weather at this point.  An associated cold front will clear
rain west to east through Tuesday morning. However, rain chances
will stick around Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday as the upper low
and associated energy squeezes through the Mid-Atlantic.

Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s through Wednesday,
with warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: Mainly MVFR to VFR conditions are expected
into the evening. Light rain will spread across the north, with
scattered showers south. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions is
possible tonight. Some fog or low stratus are possible as skies
clear late tonight, especially where winds become the lightest, but
there is not a clear enough signal in model guidance to include in
the TAF at the moment.

Looking beyond 12Z Thursday: Otherwise, with the exception of
lingering smoke potentially creating some vsby issues, generally
expect VFR conditions to prevail through Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Badgett