Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 190557
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure positioned offshore will maintain a warm
and humid air mass over central NC through Thursday while a weak
surface trough remains stationary over the western Piedmont. A cold
front will approach from the northwest late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 PM Sunday...

With no triggers, no shower or storm action remains this evening.
The isolated thunderstorms over the far western Piedmont have died
out. Dew points are up into the lower to mid 70s making it feel more
uncomfortable given the temperatures in the 80s this evening.
Without triggers or a good low level focus, we will nil the POP for
the rest of the night. Mostly clear, warm, and humid conditions
expected. Late night stratus and fog will be possible. Lows in the
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Sunday...

For Monday, an upper level trough will move into the Appalachians
and sharpen up as it does so. This will increase vorticity aloft. At
the surface this will also sharpen up the Piedmont trough and low
level southerly advection will bring increased moisture transport
out of the Gulf of Mexico and the southwestern Atlantic. There will
still be very little shear to work with and the best dynamics in the
west wont quite line up with the best instability in the east.
Therefore, SPC has maintained simply an area of general thunder
covering the entire state. Certainly convective coverage will be
more than this afternoon but the severity of it is likely to be
minimal. Highs once again in the low to mid 90s and lows in the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

North Carolina will be sandwiched between two areas of high pressure
aloft, with a weak trough over the region. A series of shortwaves
traversing the upper level trough almost every day could help
enhance chances for convection. Otherwise, expect the usual diurnal
pattern of convection with peaks during the aft/eve and a lull
overnight. A cold front could slide southward into the area late in
the week, however the southward extent is somewhat in question,
which would result in varying temperature and precipitation
forecasts. The GFS is more aggressive bringing the front into
northern portions of the area while the ECMWF keeps it and the
cooler air to the north over VA. As a result the temperature
forecast for the weekend is fairly uncertain. Temperatures will
remain fairly consistent through Friday, with highs in the low 90s
and lows in the low to mid 70s. For Friday through Sunday
temperatures will depend on the potential fropa, but with that on
the horizon have shown a bit of a decrease in temperatures during
that period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 AM Monday...

A warm, moist air mass will prevail across central NC through mid-
week. This will lead to the development of scattered convection each
afternoon. In vicinity of the heavier showers and storms, anticipate
sfc wind gusts 30-35kts, visibilities between 2SM-4SM, and broken-
overcast ceilings 3000-4500 ft. The threat of a shower or storm is
fairly equal across the board this afternoon, though difficult to
have confidence high enough to mention TEMPO in the forecast at this
time. Thus, will continue the mention of PROB30 this afternoon-early
evening in proximity of the TAF sites. Otherwise, aside from a brief
episode of IFR/MVFR fog and low stratus early this morning, expect
VFR parameters through tonight.

Little change in the air mass Tuesday into Wednesday, though the
presence of a weak upper disturbance near by could enhance the
convective coverage each afternoon. Models are beginning the signal
that early low clouds/fog will become more of an issue by early
Wednesday. The approach of a sfc cold front late in the work week
suggest an increased likelihood for early morning fog/low clouds and
scattered convection during the afternoon and evening hours,
producing periods of MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
GSO upper air flights have been scheduled through 12Z Tuesday,
including a 00Z flight this evening. A 12Z flight Wednedsay has been
scheduled as well. Additional flights are likely to be scheduled
later today as the atmopshere over central NC becomes increasingly
moist and unstable.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS
EQUIPMENT...RAH


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