Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 161422

National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1022 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Southerly return flow will result in much warmer and more humid
conditions returning today and lasting all week. A cold front will
approach from the north on Wednesday, but stall north of the region
through Thursday.


As of 1020 AM Sunday...

Summer-time pattern returns today with Bermuda high pressure over
the western Atlantic taking control of the weather pattern across
central NC for the next few days. Both temps and humidity levels
return to more seasonable ranges; afternoon highs ranging from mid
80s NW to near 90 SE with 60 degree dewpoints becoming widely
established across central NC.

Synoptic forcing across the area is nearly non-existent as weak
impulses embedded in the quasi-zonal flow aloft look to stay just
north of the area today. Otherwise, the better rain chances will lie
along our western and eastern flanks, via differential heating along
the higher terrain and the inland retreat of the sea-breeze.

Skies will be mostly clear overnight. However, there is a decent
model signal for the development of stratus/fog across the far SE
zones during the pre-dawn hours. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


As of 228 AM Sunday...

Little change from conditions of Sunday as high pressure over the
western Atlantic will dominate. Low level SSW flow at 10-15 mph
during the late morning through the afternoon. Another low amplitude
wave in the mid level flow is expected to initiate thunderstorms
over WVA/MD and possibly VA during the afternoon into the evening. A
few storms are also expected over and near the Blue Ridge; however,
our chances should remain 20 percent or less under the upper
ridging. Highs generally about a degree or two hotter than today.
Expect 88 to 94. Lows Monday night in the lower to mid 70s.


As of 158 AM Sunday...

Typical summer pattern for much of this week with fairly hot and
humid conditions with a chance of diurnal thunderstorms.

The main upper jet is expected to extend from the Midwest to the
northern Mid-Atlantic for this week. Several waves tracking in these
westerlies will bring episodes of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
through Friday, mainly concentrated to our north. This is related to
the main surface front which is expected to be located along the
southern flank of the upper jet. However, several waves in the flow
are expected to be strong enough to send outflow boundaries
southeast from WVA/VA into NC Wednesday through Friday. This is also
when the main surface front will make a run or two at northern NC,
but should stall to our north each time.

Thus, central NC can expect a good chance of mainly diurnal
thunderstorms each day Tue-Fri. The best chances should be
associated with the main front when it reaches closest to the region
most likely late Wednesday and again Friday. However, individual
waves and associated convection and outflows are notoriously hard to
forecast and will have to be updated daily. Lows in the 69-73 range,
with highs in the mid to upper 80s NW, and generally 90-93

Even hotter weather with a bit lesser chances of PM thunderstorms
may develop next weekend, if the upper ridge gets stronger over
portions of the SE states, as some of the latest models suggest.


As of 100 AM Sunday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected with high confidence through
06z/Monday. There may be a brief shower or thunderstorm at KINT
between 23z/Sunday and 02z/Monday. The chance is 20 percent or less.

Looking beyond 06z Mon, generally VFR conditions with medium to high
confidence Monday and Monday night, then generally a VFR medium
confidence forecast for Tuesday. On Wednesday, there is a chance of
MVFR CIGS and VSBYS associated with an afternoon or evening
thunderstorm, mainly from KINT and KGSO to KRDU and KRWI. Otherwise,
generally VFR conditions expected.





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