Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 021111
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
610 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will quickly build across the region today, then a
storm system will move across the Gulf Coast and Southeast late
tonight into Wednesday. Dry weather will develop Wednesday night
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure will build southeast from the OH Valley to the
VA/NC border today. Although weak ridging will also build aloft
across the region, cold air advection and mostly cloudy skies will
create highs much lower than Monday, ranging from the upper 40s
north to the mid 50s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Ridging at the surface and aloft will quickly move east tonight as
low pressure approaches the region. A surface low will transition
northeast from the northern Gulf tonight to off the coast of the
Carolinas by late Wednesday. At the same time, a weak upper-level
low will move east across the Southeast, and off the East Coast by
late Wednesday. Recent model runs have trended precipitation further
south, and some even keep all precipitation out of central NC
through the period. For now, we`ll keep the highest chances of
precipitation across the NC/SC border, with the northern half of
central NC (Triad/Triangle) dry. Isentropic lift will generate rain
across southern areas starting late tonight, then exiting east our
of the region Wednesday afternoon. Warmer weather is expected
Wednesday, especially where conditions remain dry and skies more
clear. Highs will range from near 60 across the Triad to the low 50s
across the southern Coastal Plain.

Surface high pressure will build from the Great Lakes Region into
the northern Gulf Wednesday night, with clear skies and
northwesterly light winds across central NC. Lows tonight will range
from the low 30s north to near 40 south, with slightly higher
temperatures Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

As a surface area of low pressure late Wednesday off the coast of
the Carolinas tracks east-northeast into the central Atlantic,
surface high pressure over central Canada will build into the upper
Great Lakes Thursday. This will be in response to a deep and broad
mid-level trough of low pressure northeast of the Canadian
Maritimes. Attendant northwest flow at the mid-levels will allow a
backdoor dry cold front to push through central NC Thursday evening.
The NAM continues to be faster with the CAA and northeasterly
surface flow, bringing it through midday Thursday, while the
GFS/ECMWF/GEFS support Thursday night. Expecting highs Thursday near
normal in the upper 50s to the northwest and low 60s in the
southeast. Northeasterly flow should ensue by Friday as surface high
settles over the Great Lakes. Low-level thicknesses drop from 1335
to 1300 m behind the front on Friday, ushering in highs to end the
week about 10 degrees below average for early March.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance have come into better agreement
with a cutoff low pressure system initially over southern California
Thursday. The GFS/ECMWF/GEFS show this feature moving into the
central Plains by Friday and into the southeastern US by early
Saturday. At the same time, persistent troughing over the Canadian
Maritimes will maintain northwest flow at the mid-levels across NC.
This combined with surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
advecting in dry and cool conditions should keep any deep moisture
across South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Clouds will likely
increase late Fri/Sat with the weak mid-level vorticity advection
ahead of the trough and high-level moisture. The latest guidance
shows forcing for ascent and isentropic lift/moisture primarily in
South Carolina, so central NC should largely remain dry. As the low
moves out Sat Night/Sun morning, a reinforcing shot of CAA develops
with high pressure building over New England. The ECMWF is a tad
stronger with this CAA than the GFS, resulting in low-level
thicknesses ranging from 1280 to 1305 m. Regardless, it should keep
us in that pattern of upper 40s to low 50s for highs. By early next
week, mid-level ridging over the Midwest will build eastward,
allowing for a moderating airmass as surface high over NC gradually
moves off the coast of the Carolinas. Southerly flow will gradually
return late Monday/Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 50s Monday
and perhaps low 60s Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 610 AM Tuesday...

Through 12Z Wed: High confidence in VFR conditions through the
majority of the TAF period. Light east-northeast winds today of 5 to
10 kt to become east-southeast tonight. VFR/MVFR showers are
possible toward the end of the period at FAY with a southern track
low pressure system, though forecast confidence remains low.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected for the extended period through
Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JJT
NEAR TERM...JJT
SHORT TERM...JJT
LONG TERM...Kren/JJT
AVIATION...Kren/JJT


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