Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 132214
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
314 PM PDT Wed Jun 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures will remain well above average Thursday followed by a
cooling trend through Sunday. Breezy conditions are expected today
and Thursday afternoon with the strongest winds on Friday ahead of a
cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
weekend with the highest chances north of I-80.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Hottest day of the week is ongoing today as temperatures in the
valleys reach into the mid and upper 90s, with highs only a few
degrees cooler Thursday. Cooling trend is expected through the
weekend as low pressure moves back into the region. Dry and breezy
conditions prevail today and Thursday afternoon with the strongest
winds expected on Friday. For more on fire weather concerns related
to these winds, please refer to the fire weather segment below.

Afternoon cumulus buildups are likely this afternoon in Mono and
Mineral counties, with isolated thunderstorms possible, but coverage
and intensity are expected to be limited. By Friday, incoming low
pressure will provide enough instability and forcing for showers and
thunderstorms in far northwestern Nevada.

An area of cut-off low pressure will settle into the region over the
weekend and could linger until Monday, potentially longer. This will
bring cooler temperatures with scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day. As of now, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms
will be north of I-80 Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures on
Sunday will be around 20 degrees cooler than today, but for
perspective, this will only be around 5-8 degrees below average for
this time of year.

Conditions next week will depend on how quickly the low departs the
area, and predictability remains low on its track at this time. Some
model simulations have the low moving out early in the week while
others keep the low pressure over the region for much of next week
as well. -Zach

&&

.AVIATION...

Breezy winds gusting to 25-30 kts this afternoon will be a little
lighter Thursday afternoon. Stronger winds are expected Friday as
low pressure begins to move into the area with gusts to 35 kts. A
few cumulus buildups in Mono/Mineral counties this afternoon with
15% chance of thunderstorm development. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms begin to increase Friday in NW Nevada with
increasing chances for showers and storms across the remainder of
the region over the weekend.

-Zach

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The recent period of warm and dry weather has led to some increased
drying of grasses in west central NV. While winds today and Thursday
will be gusty at times during the afternoon and evening, possibly
edging above 30 mph at times, the more significant winds are
projected for Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusts could
reach 40 mph while humidities drop into the 8-16% range, so in the
areas where the greatest drying of vegetation has occurred (Fire
zones 453 and 459), we will issue a Fire Weather Watch for 2-9 PM
Friday. Other areas will see periods of windy conditions on Friday,
but either fuel moistures have not yet dropped to critical levels or
humidity won`t be as low, so they won`t be included in a watch but
we`ll include a headline to highlight the gusty winds.

For Saturday, portions of west central NV especially south of US-50
are likely to remain quite dry as the push of higher humidity behind
the cold front stalls just to the north. Breezy conditions are also
likely again, although wind speeds are not expected to reach the
same levels as Friday. Still worth keeping attention for possible
fire weather concerns, especially if fires occur in these areas
prior to the weekend. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     NVZ453-459.

CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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