Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 122139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
239 PM PDT Thu Apr 12 2018


Dry weather returns with a warming trend Friday and Saturday. The
next storm system will bring wetter conditions starting late
Sunday through Monday, with another storm possible later next
week. Below average temperatures are expected for next week.



It was a pretty cold and brisk April day out there today, with
many locations around the region struggling to get out of the 30s
and 40s. A weak shortwave is moving along the Oregon and far
northern Nevada border, with a few light showers possible through
this evening, mainly north of Susanville and east of Fallon. Winds
will remain brisk through the evening and into tonight for most
locations, with northeast winds increasing for the Sierra ridges
overnight into early Friday morning.

High pressure will build over the region for the weekend as the
jet stream retreats to the north. This will allow for some warming
temperatures back up to above average by Saturday and Sunday.
Another shortwave moves into California and Nevada late Sunday
bringing another round of increasing winds and chances for rain
and snow for the Sierra and western Nevada. Winds will begin to
ramp up Sunday morning across the region, with gusts up to 45 mph
likely through the day on Sunday, especially along the US-395
corridor from Susanville through Reno-Carson-Minden and down to
Mono County.

This storm doesn`t look overly strong, more of a typical average
spring storm for the Sierra, but another cold one with snow levels
dropping sharply behind the cold front Sunday night. Snow will
begin in the northern Sierra Sunday afternoon, then push further
south into Tahoe and Mono County by the evening and overnight
Sunday night. Storm total snow at this time looks to be similar to
this last storm, generally several inches around Lake Tahoe
level, with potentially up to a foot along the Sierra Crest above
7000 feet around Tahoe and Alpine/Mono Counties. Snow levels will
drop to valley floors in western Nevada (around 4000 feet) by
early Monday morning with a chance of a light dusting of snow for
the Monday morning commute, much like what we saw this morning.

.LONG TERM...Next week...

Monday morning, a cold front pushes south and east of the area
with precipitation breaking up into snow/snow pellet showers, or
possibly rain and snow showers in the lowest west-central NV
valleys. A few thunderstorms are also possible by afternoon with
instability under the system`s cold pool. Thunderstorms could also
form in the Sacramento Valley and, as these move into the Sierra,
some localized brief bursts of heavy snow are possible.

Showers wind down Monday evening, with dry days expected Tuesday
into Wednesday. Some models and ensemble simulations have the next
system for Wednesday night into Thursday breaking off from the main
northeast Pacific flow and rolling overhead, while others have it
dropping down the California coast into southern California before
it begins working inland. These classic spring-type systems can be
very hard to pin down as their paths can be changed by subtle flow
details hard to resolve this far out. If the system drops down the
California coast, little or no precipitation could be the result for
northeast CA and western NV. Therefore, confidence in precip chances
and amounts is low with just a broad-brush slight chance to chance
of showers maintained. -Snyder



Isolated to scattered (Sierra) -shsn through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the early evening should dissipate with loss of
daytime heating. Snow showers should remain light enough that
reductions in VIS/CIGS should remain minor and brief with just some
higher terrain obscuration in the Sierra. No accumulations are
expected on paved areas.

West winds aloft over the Sierra could bring some turbulence, mainly
near ridgeline levels (~095-120 MSL) into this evening. High pressure
builds overhead Friday into Saturday for lighter winds and VFR
conditions for most terminals. However, there is a low chance for
patchy fog at/near KTRK by late Friday night. -Snyder


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Pyramid Lake
     in NVZ004.



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