Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 170406

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
906 PM PDT Sat Jun 16 2018


Winds are very slowly decreasing across the Tahoe region and
western Nevada this evening. Most areas are seeing gusts less
than 30 mph...but a few wind prone locations may be a bit stronger
for a couple more hours. We have allowed the Lake Wind Advisories
to expire.

Showers are developing over northeast California and far
northwest Nevada this evening as the broad upper low continues to
slowly drop south. Low level winds should shift to the north
through the night in areas north of I-80 as the cold front drops
south. A few thunderstorms are still possible late tonight north
of Susanville...but the better chances are Sunday when the area
will be under the upper low.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 PM PDT Sat Jun 16 2018/


Breezy conditions will continue with gusts 25-35 mph this
afternoon and evening. Low pressure moving into far northeast
California this evening will bring shower and thunderstorm chances
north of Portola and Gerlach, with chances increasing for most of
the region Sunday. Much cooler temperatures Sunday will be
followed by warmer and drier conditions next week.


A strong area of low pressure (for mid-June) is centered over
southern Oregon as of the time of writing, slowly dropping south.
This low and the associated cold front will begin to push into
northern CA/NV this evening, centering over northern Nevada
Sunday. Winds will remain breezy this afternoon and evening ahead
of the cold front with peak gusts in the 25-35 mph range. This is
keeping choppy conditions on area lakes with Lake Wind Advisories
in effect for the Tahoe area lakes, in addition to Pyramid Lake,
Lahontan Reservoir, and Washoe Lake.

Developing cumulus fields are evident on satellite imagery this
afternoon across northern Nevada and northeastern California as
heights begin to fall ahead of the approaching low. By late
afternoon and into this evening, showers with a slight chance for
embedded thunderstorms will develop through these areas. Additional
showers and storms are likely on Sunday with the cold and unstable
core of the low overhead. Convective parameters are not overly
impressive, so doubt we will see severe storms. Winds are most
likely the greatest threat from any storms this evening into Sunday
morning as the atmosphere slowly moistens up with small hail looking
possible Sunday due to colder air and lower wet bulb zero

Another thing to be aware of Sunday will be much colder temperatures
with highs 10-15 degrees below normal. This will be a drastic change
from the 8-12 degrees above normal we have experienced this past
week. Anyone with plans in the backcountry needs to be prepared not
only for the colder temperatures, but the potential for snow down
to 9500 feet in addition to the wet weather.

The low exits to the northeast Monday into Tuesday. While a few
showers may linger in northern CA/NV Monday, by Tuesday, a cap will
limit any development with dry conditions expected. Temperatures
will also rebound, returning to near normal by Tuesday. -Dawn

LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Saturday...

Warm, seasonal weather with breezy afternoon winds is expected for
the middle of next week as high pressure builds in from the
southwest. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s for
the valleys and high 70s for the Sierra on Wednesday.

By Thursday, a shortwave trough looks to pass by towards the north
as the high pressure system from the south retrogrades just off the
coast of southern California. Increased cloud cover with some light
rain showers/thunderstorms looks possible at this time for northern
Lassen and Washoe counties Thursday afternoon. As the shortwave
makes its way through, gusty west-northwest winds will prevail then
calm down by early Friday morning. Temperatures will most likely
stay near normal for this time of year even with the passage of
the trough with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for the lower
valleys and upper 70s for higher elevations.

High pressure tries to build back in again from the west for Friday
and Saturday, but has a hard time due to another incoming trough
looking to make its way through the Pacific NW region by Monday.


Gusty west to northwest winds are currently being felt by most area
terminals with peak gusts of up to 30 kts. These gusty winds will
likely last through this evening calming down by nightfall. Cloud
cover will continue to increase this afternoon into the evening
hours as low pressure drops down from the northeast. Lowering CIGS
and mountain obscuration will result with the chance for rain
showers and thunderstorms north of KSVE.

By Sunday, the chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
increases for all area terminals (besides KMMH) leading to MVFR
conditions along with northwest winds around 10-15 kts. Any storms
may produce gusty and erratic outflow winds in addition to areas
with turbulence. -LaGuardia


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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