Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 160956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
256 AM PDT Fri Mar 16 2018


Winter storm will continue to impact the region through Saturday
morning with dangerous travel conditions in the Sierra. Snow
across western Nevada will greatly slow the Friday morning
commute. Snow showers will give way to warmer conditions for
Sunday and the start of work week. The next storm system is
forecast to arrive on Wednesday with rain and heavy mountain snow



All winter storm warnings and advisories remain in effect. See
our text products for the latest snow accumulation forecasts. A
conveyer belt of moisture will continue to stream across the
Sierra into the Great Basin today and tonight, shifting southward
with time.

For paved surfaces below 5,000 feet, snow accumulations have been
variable depending on how quickly surface temperatures cooled
overnight. Some locations quickly cooled below freezing while
others continued to melt snow overnight. Therefore, drivers in
western NV may encounter variable road conditions this morning,
which can be hazardous as drivers speed up and slow down. Plan on
needing extra time for this morning`s commute and delay your
travel if possible to give time for the snow to melt.

For western NV, including Pershing and Churchill Counties, high
resolutions models show potential for bands of heavier snow
through this afternoon, capable of creating local snow totals up
to 6 inches. These bands will probably impact the I-80 and US-50
corridors, although accumulations during the daylight hours may be
limited outside of the heaviest snow bands. The models also show
potential for a few embedded thunderstorms this afternoon.

Mineral/Lyon Counties look to have their peak snow later today
from 2-10 pm with slushy accumulations possible on portions of
US-95 and Alternate 95. A few hours of heavier snow is possible
this evening, which could lead to increasingly slick driving
conditions during the early evening hours.

Latest guidance is also indicating that the heaviest snow will
persist over the Tahoe Basin through much of this afternoon,
tapering off but not ending this evening. Southern Mono County
will see conditions worsen during the day today, with peak
snowfall rates most likely there between 10 am and 10 pm.

System will end from north to south tonight, but with potential
for some narrow bands of heavy snow to persist across Mono,
Alpine, Douglas, Lyon and Mineral counties through Saturday
morning. Once the main storm clears, snow showers will hang
around through Saturday afternoon. A warming trend starts Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday onward...

Greatest concern in the long term period is a warmer and wet system
with an atmospheric river tap. While the bulk of the moisture is
headed toward southern California based on GEFS ensemble mean
guidance and other AR detection tools, there is a filament that
makes its way toward the Sierra Wednesday into Thursday. The slower
arrival time has continued in forecast model guidance and so have
trended the forecast in this direction with early Wednesday morning
now looking to be the initial start of this system.

For the start of the event, the region will be on the warm side of
the jet, with snow levels likely to be around the 7000 ft range.
Upper elevations of the Sierra have the potential for another round
of heavy snow, with valley rain also looking likely. As an upper
level trough swings into the west Thursday, it will push a cold
front through the region, helping snow levels fall. We could even
see snow levels near valley floors by next Friday morning, however
we lose the AR moisture tap by that point. The final piece of the
upper low moves overhead on Friday keeping chances for snow showers
in the forecast Friday into Saturday. -Dawn



Winter storm with IFR conditions and accumulating snow at Sierra
terminals continuing today possibly easing to MVFR conditions
this evening.

For KRNO and KCXP, periods of moderate to heavy snow are likely
through at least 18z today with a few inches of additional
accumulation expected.

Farther south at KMMH southwest winds should ease up later this
morning with lowering ceilings and then heavy snow with IFR/LIFR
conditions after 21z today.

Winter storm will clear out by Saturday with lingering snow or
pellet showers. Dry conditions return Sunday with fog potential at
KTRK. Next system of note is forecast to move through the region
Wednesday and Thursday. JCM


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ005.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday NVZ002.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ003.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ004.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday CAZ071.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday CAZ070.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lake Tahoe in

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday CAZ072.



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