Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 232102
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
302 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Scattered thunderstorms are continuing to develop over southeast
Wyoming this afternoon. These storms are feeding on good
instability and decent effective shear of around 40kts which has
caused one storm to become severe around Wheatland. These storms
will continue evolve during the course of the afternoon and early
evening with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds.
Would not be surprised if this convection lingers through the
early evening due to synoptic scale forcing from the potential
vorticity anomaly and the entrance region of the upper level jet.
Things should begin to clear out overnight along with some patchy
fog. However, nice weather is on horizon tomorrow as the upper
level ridge builds over the area and suppresses the convection.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Very warm conditions will be on tap Friday into Saturday as the
upper level ridge continues to dominate the picture. Unsettled
weather returns Sunday evening into Monday as another low pressure
system moves into the central Rockies. Slow moving low will keep
chance for showers and thunderstorms at least through Tuesday as
downstream blocking ridge very slow to move east. Southeast low
level flow should bring Gulf moisture into the area. Looks like a
pretty good setup for another round of heavy rain and severe
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday morning)

Thunderstorms are currently developing across the Laramie Range and
areas west of Interstate 25 early this afternoon. This activity will
become more widespread and stronger as thunderstorms move northeast
into western Nebraska late this afternoon. KCYS should see VCTS over
the next few hours while the western Nebraska terminals will begin
to see some activity as early as 21z to 23z. VFR conditions will
prevail, but MVFR VIS are expected around the heavier showers and
thunderstorms through early this evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Dry and warm conditions will return to the area Thursday through
Saturday. Saturday will favor very dry and windy conditions with
low relative humidities around 15 percent in southeast Wyoming along
with south winds at 20 to 30 mph. Unsettled weather conditions
are expected to return the area Sunday and Monday with more
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...REC



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