294
FXUS65 KCYS 030555
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1155 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and daily chances for PM showers and
  thunderstorms will continue late this week and into the
  weekend.

- Temperatures drop back down closer to near normal for
  Independence Day but afternoon showers or thunderstorms could
  impact festivities.

- High pressure to the south could drive daily shower and
  thunderstorm chances in the long term while keeping us close
  to near seasonable for temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Summer heat continues today as we see widespread temperatures
into the 80`s and 90`s with a few reports from the border of
Wyoming through the NE Panhandle showing near to triple digits
even. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are also seen on
radar, but with parameters low overall not expecting much aside
from an occasional gusty wind or perhaps very isolated small
hail, but this remains unlikely, with this activity limited to
areas generally west of I-25. The ridge producing this activity
holds on control through this evening, but our next trough
passes across the region on Thursday and brings a more
widespread shower and thunderstorm risk. Overall severe
parameters are on the low side, with instability generally
light, MUCAPE around 300-700 J/kg though some isolated pockets
of higher instability may develop, and bulk shear averaging 30
knots or less in the beginning through later part of the
afternoon. Because of this, storms should mostly be sub-severe,
though an occasional marginally severe storm can`t be fully
ruled out. The jet should start to kick in just a little bit
more by the late evening hours, but activity should be waning by
then to help preclude a more robust severe event. This incoming
system alongside widespread cloud cover will limit temperatures
on Thursday for areas west of the Laramie Range, and we should
see temperatures drop back down closer to normal just in time
for Independence Day by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

The bad news for Independence Day is that we can expect another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon,
so some celebrations may be briefly interrupted by some
diurnally driven precipitation. This could continue into the
long term as we monitor high pressure developing over the
desert southwest which will bring a more westerly to
northwesterly flow to the region alongside daily shower and
thunderstorm chances from multiple smaller systems rounding the
base of this feature, with temperatures heading back to near
normal for the region. Some of these days could see marginally
stronger to near severe storms, so we will need to continue to
monitor as we move into the long term as this pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Upper level ridge axis is forecast to lift northeast into the
Great Plains tonight as a broad Pacific trough of low pressure moves
into Utah and western Colorado by early Thursday. A round of showers
and thunderstorms are forecast along and west of the I-25 corridor
Thursday afternoon through late Thursday evening with some heavy
rainfall possible.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions expected over the next 12
hours with midlevel clouds gradually lowering and thickening for
KRWL, KLAR, and possibly KCYS. South winds will occasionally be
gusty overnight, especially around KCDR, KLAR, and KRWL. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to quickly develop after 18z Thursday and
likely impact KLAR and KRWL. A period of steady and heavy rainfall
may impact these terminals by 00z with MVFR conditions possible.
Further east, precipitation and thunderstorms will likely hold off
until 00z to 06z Friday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...TJT